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Illogic of Nuclear Disarmament in the Contemporary Era

Archive, Strategic AdversariesArms Control, Arms Race, Article VI, AUKUS deal, biases, bilateral arms control, China, Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), conference on disarmament (CD), confidence-building measures (CBMs), conventional imbalance, crisis management, Deterrence, deterrent credibility, disarmament deception syndrome (DDS), discriminatory norms, emerging technologies, France, geopolitical landscape, global zero (GZ), India, Iran nuclear pursuit, Israel, modernization, multilateral treaties, National Security, Negative Security Assurances, non-nuclear weapon states, North Korea, North Korea withdrawal, nuclear arms race, nuclear disarmament, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), nuclear proliferation, Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), nuclear umbrella, nuclear weapon states, Pakistan, positive security assurances, prestige-driven ambitions, Russia, security betrayal trap (SBT), South Asia, space-based capabilities, strategic chain, strategic stability, Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), Ukraine paradox, United Kingdom, United States

Illogic of Nuclear Disarmament in the Contemporary Era

Sher Ali Kakar & Atta Ullah1 Comment

Since the beginning of the nuclear age, the international community consistently made efforts toward disarmament. However, the world saw both vertical and horizontal nuclear proliferation. Nuclear-armed states are modernizing…

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Deconstructing Deterrence

Archive, Arms Control & Nonproliferationassumptions, attack, attacks, began, conflict, counteraction, credible, defeat, Deterrence, enemies, failed, Fear, first, force, global, honor, ingram, Israel, maintain, major, military, nuclear, paradigm, paul, peace, phobos, planning, policy, principal, problem, rational, response, seay, sought, state, threat, trinity, trouble, weapons, work

Deconstructing Deterrence

Paul Ingram & Ted Seay2 Comments

Since October 7, 2023, the term “deterrence” has circulated with increased frequency. There is one problem: as it is currently defined and understood, deterrence does not work. The Oxford Essential…

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Deterring Nuclear Terrorism in the Era of Great Power Competition

Allies & Extended Deterrence, Archive, Arms Control & Nonproliferation, Defense & Security, Deterrence & Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Emerging Threats, Strategic AdversariesAfghanistan, Arms Control, Atomic, China, cold war, Deterrence, global security, Hezbollah, ICBM, India, Iran, Israel, Japan, Middle East, National Security, Nuclear Deterrence, Nuclear Weapons, Russia, security, Syria, Taliban, Terrorism, Title 22, UN

Deterring Nuclear Terrorism in the Era of Great Power Competition

Alexis Schlotterback0 Comments

As the Cold War ended and new counterterrorism priorities took root in the 2000s, the threat of nuclear terrorism cemented itself as the ultimate catastrophic scenario. Dick Cheney famously stated…

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Forecasting an Imminent Israeli Strike on Iran

Archive, Strategic Adversariesaction, against, attack, between, command, full, Gaza, high, Iran, Iranian, irans, Israel, israeli, israels, Lebanon, likely, military, missile, mobilization, more, most, operational, operations, political, proxy, regional, strategic, strike, well, where

Forecasting an Imminent Israeli Strike on Iran

Mohamed ELDoh0 Comments

Multiple converging factors point toward a high probability of a renewed and more expansive Israeli strike against Iran within the coming months, most likely between September and October 7, 2025,…

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Results in Iran

Archive, Arms Control & Nonproliferation, Bonus Reads, Strategic AdversariesAtoms for Peace, Ayatollah Khamenei, battle damage assessment, Benjamin Netanyahu, China, Darius the Great, Deterrence, Dmitry Medvedev, enriched uranium, Fordow, GBU-57, IAEA, international relations, Iran, Isfahan, Israel, Masoud Pezeshkian, Natanz, North Korea, nuclear facilities, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, nuclear scientists, Nuclear Weapons, regime change, Revolutionary Guard Corps, Russia, stealth bombers, Twelve Day War, United States, Vladimir Putin

Results in Iran

Sam Stanton, PhD0 Comments

In the early morning hours of June 22, 2025, American aircraft engaged in direct operations against three Iranian nuclear facilities: Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. These attacks involved 125 aircraft and…

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Deterring Iran: The Art of No Deal

Archive, Strategic AdversariesArrow-2, Arrow-3, ballistic missiles, bombing raid, C4ISR, cyber intelligence, David’s Sling, Deterrence, Donald Trump, electronic warfare, Friedrich Merz, Gulf States, Hezbollah, houthis, Iran, IRGC, Iron Beam, Iron Dome, Israel, maritime security, Middle East, missile defense, Mission Delta 4, nuclear facilities, oil markets, Patriot, regime change, Shia hegemony, SIGINT, situational awareness, Syrian leadership., Terrorism, THAAD, Türkiye, United States, US Space Force

Deterring Iran: The Art of No Deal

Christophe Bosquillon0 Comments

Since its inception, the Iranian regime (1979) has terrorized and subjugated the Middle East and killed far too many Americans. For nearly 50 years, Iran successfully used a combination of…

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Ukraine’s Drone Attack: What It Means

Allies & Extended Deterrence, Archive, Emerging Threats, Strategic Adversariesairfields, anti-air defenses, anti-drone technology, armed drones, asymmetric drone warfare, asymmetric threats, Club-K container concept, communication, covert operations, infrastructure defense, Iran, Israel, military installations, military targets, National Institute for Deterrence Studies. , nuclear installations, Pacific conflict, pre-placement, Russia, shipping containers, signals intelligence, SIM cards, soft targets, solar panels, Spiderweb drone attack, strategic bombers, suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD), Ukraine, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), US Air Force, US Navy

Ukraine’s Drone Attack: What It Means

Michael Fincher0 Comments

The recent Ukrainian “Spiderweb” drone attack on Russian airfields that destroyed a number of strategic bombers proved the utility of asymmetric drone warfare. Taking the Russian “Club-K” container concept, with…

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A Nuclear Iran Would Pose an Existential Threat to the South Caucasus

Allies & Extended Deterrence, Archive, Bonus Reads, Emerging Threats, Strategic AdversariesArmenia, Ayatollah Khamenei, Azerbaijan, ballistic missiles, destabilization, drone production, enrichment capabilities, existential threat, geopolitical role, hegemonic approach, Huseyniyyun Brigade, imperialist activities. , Iran foreign policy, Iran-Russia pact, IRGC, Israel, John Mearsheimer, Kenneth Waltz, NATO, nuclear agreement, nuclear balance, Nuclear Iran, offensive realism, Operation Rising Lion, relative power, Robert Gilpin, Russia-Ukraine war, security risks, South Caucasus, territorial control, Turkey, US nuclear deal, Zangezur corridor

A Nuclear Iran Would Pose an Existential Threat to the South Caucasus

Rufat Ahmedzade0 Comments

Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu has defined the strategic goal of his country’s Operation Rising Lion as rolling back the Iranian threat to Israel’s survival. Israel is pounding Iran’s nuclear facilities,…

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Syria and Saudi Arabia’s Northern Front: A New Theatre for the Kingdom’s Security Policy

Allies & Extended Deterrence, Archive, Strategic AdversariesArab sovereignty, Arab unity, Bashar al Assad, Captagon trafficking, counterterrorism, defense cooperation, Druze militias, economic leverage, extremist networks, forward defense zone, fragmentation, geopolitical terrain, Geopolitics, Iran, Iranian proxies, Iranian-backed militias, Israel, Israel airstrikes, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, KSA, Middle East, Muslim Brotherhood, northern frontier, power vacuum, reconstruction diplomacy, regional stability, sanctions relief, Saudi Arabia, security policy, Sunni politics, Syria, territorial integrity, transitional government, Turkey, Turkey's military presence, Yemen

Syria and Saudi Arabia’s Northern Front: A New Theatre for the Kingdom’s Security Policy

Mohamed ELDoh1 Comment

In the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s fall, Syria has become more than just a war-ravaged state grappling with political vacuum and economic decay—it has transformed into a critical security frontier…

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Iran Can Reconfigure Its Foothold in Post-Assad Syria

Archive, Emerging Threats, Strategic AdversariesAlawite, Bashar al Assad, civil war, Damascus, Druze, governance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Hizballah, ideological footprint, Iran, Iraq, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Israel, Kurdistan Regional Government, Kurds, Middle East, military proxies, Modafean-e Haram, Quds, regional actors, resistance axis., Russia, Sayyida Zaynab, self-determination, Sunni Islamist regime, Syria, transitional constitution, Turkey, unrest

Iran Can Reconfigure Its Foothold in Post-Assad Syria

Loqman Radpey0 Comments

Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Iran initially denied the presence of its forces on Syrian soil, despite evidence to the contrary. Later, Tehran was forced…

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India’s Missile Program: A Threat to Regional and Global Peace and Stability

Allies & Extended Deterrence, Archive, Strategic AdversariesAgni-5, Agni-5MII, Akash Missiles, Anum Riaz, Armenia, Bay of Bengal, China, CISS, Defense Exports, Defense Partnerships, France, global security, hypersonic missile, ICBM, India, Indo-Philippine Defense Ties, Israel, MIRV, missile program, MTCR, NATOM, Pakistan, Peace and stability , Pralay Missiles, regional competition, Russia, Strategic Alliances, United States, US

India’s Missile Program: A Threat to Regional and Global Peace and Stability

Anum Riaz1 Comment

After India became a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) in 2016, it increased its missile exports and extended its market for defense exports because of its greater…

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How Global Instability Fuels the Nuclear Arms Race

Archive, Strategic AdversariesAmerican leadership, American power, anarchy, Arms Control, arms racing, China, cold war, disarmament regimes, Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty, FMCT, global instability, hegemon. , INF Treaty, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, international institutions, international policing, Iran, Iran Nuclear Deal, Israel, JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Middle East, multilateral arrangements, New START, nonproliferation regimes, North Korea, nuclear arms race, nuclear escalation, nuclear proliferation, nuclear umbrella, Open Skies Treaty, OST, Russian invasion, security, security assurances, Ukraine, uranium enrichment

How Global Instability Fuels the Nuclear Arms Race

Muhammad Usama Khalid0 Comments

The world is in an uncertain place today and is perhaps experiencing the most uncertainty since World War II. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February…

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