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Strategic Adversaries

Strategic Adversaries

White Hulls, Gray Zones: China, Russia, and a Habituated World

White Hulls, Gray Zones: China, Russia, and a Habituated World

Published: October 22, 2026  Pale hulls painted with “China Coast Guard” cut the waters around Taiwan, the Philippines, near Alaska, and across the deep blue of the Pacific. Such actions…
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Cyber Deterrence Begins with the Power to Disconnect

Cyber Deterrence Begins with the Power to Disconnect

Published: 20 October 2026 On August 26, President Donald Trump declared a national emergency over foreign actors exploiting vulnerabilities in the U.S. bulk-power system. The order framed the problem as…
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The Cauldron Never Empties: Synthetic Narratives that Create Strategic Opportunity

The Cauldron Never Empties: Synthetic Narratives that Create Strategic Opportunity

Published: October 19, 2026 The most dangerous Russian information operation may not begin with a lie. It may begin with something true. A legitimate news report. An authentic photograph. A…
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The Politics of Global AI Governance

The Politics of Global AI Governance

Published: October 13, 2026  The growing gap between rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and inadequate verification mechanisms has created several challenges for the technology. In this context, global AI…
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North Korea Has Options

North Korea Has Options

Published: October 12, 2026 In 2017, two people unknowingly working as proxies for North Korean intelligence approached Kim Jong Nam at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport. In what they thought…
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Would Golden Dome Make America Safer?

Would Golden Dome Make America Safer?

Published:  October 5, 2026 In February 2022, days after Russian forces crossed into Ukraine, Putin placed his nuclear arsenal on high alert and warned that any nation interfering would face…
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The Political Power Battle in Tehran

The Political Power Battle in Tehran

Published: October 1, 2026 As Iran signals its willingness to pursue fighting, one of the most important power struggles to watch in the Middle East today is not between Iran…
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Iran Shows Why Nuclear Deterrence Still Matters

Iran Shows Why Nuclear Deterrence Still Matters

Published:  September 29, 2026 The 2026 United States’ war against Iran is a matter of international and domestic political controversy. Regardless of its outcome, the trajectory already suggests important lessons…
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Resilience Never Activated, Deters No One

Resilience Never Activated, Deters No One

Published: September 28, 2026 Deterrence by denial rests on a practical promise. An attack on a state’s infrastructure will not produce the effect an adversary expects. Resilience contributes to that…
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China’s Long-Range Missiles, Russia’s Arctic Bastion, and the Alaskan Gap

China’s Long-Range Missiles, Russia’s Arctic Bastion, and the Alaskan Gap

Published: September 24, 2026   The Cold War made the High North a proving ground for nuclear strategy. Even though the powers and weapons have changed, the same geography matters again.…
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Explainability, Not Speed, Will Define the Next Military AI Race

Explainability, Not Speed, Will Define the Next Military AI Race

Published: September 21, 2026  A soldier who fires on a target must be able to reason “why” afterward. Similarly, a commander who authorizes a strike must be able to justify…
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Exporting Ukraine’s Lessons: The Risks of Transferring the Wrong Lessons to the Asia-Pacific

Exporting Ukraine’s Lessons: The Risks of Transferring the Wrong Lessons to the Asia-Pacific

Published: September 15, 2026 Having observed the war from within the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, one is struck by two simultaneous situations: the extraordinary tactical adaptation…
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