Emerging Threats — Global Security Review Emerging Threats %

Archive, Emerging Threats, Strategic AdversariesCISA, coercive dependence, containment, containment time, control-plane security, critical infrastructure, cyber decoys, cyber deterrence, cyber intrusion, cyber resilience, deterrence by denial, evidence-based reconnection, incident isolation, independent control paths, mission continuity, National Security, NIST, operational technology, pre-positioning, recovery assurance, selective disconnection, separation of duties, trusted recovery, trusted recovery time, Volt Typhoon

Cyber Deterrence Begins with the Power to Disconnect

Burak Oktenli0 Comments

Published: 20 October 2026 On August 26, President Donald Trump declared a national emergency over foreign actors exploiting vulnerabilities in the U.S. bulk-power system. The order framed the problem as…

AI & Deterrence, Archive, Bonus Reads, Defense & Security, Emerging Threats, Strategic Adversariesartificial intelligence, attribution, cognitive warfare, counterfeit media, credibility, decision-making, democratic institutions, Disinformation, fabricated personas, foreign information manipulation and interference, information manipulation, misinformation, narrative reframing, propaganda, Russian information operations, societal resilience, strategic ambiguity, synthetic narratives, Ukraine, verification

The Cauldron Never Empties: Synthetic Narratives that Create Strategic Opportunity

Greg Sharpe0 Comments

Published: October 19, 2026 The most dangerous Russian information operation may not begin with a lie. It may begin with something true. A legitimate news report. An authentic photograph. A…

AI & Deterrence, Archive, Defense & Security, Emerging Threats, Geopolitics in Deterrence, Strategic Adversariesadvanced semiconductors, AI Act, AI safety, artificial intelligence regulation, capacity building, China, compute infrastructure, data governance, digital infrastructure, European Union, export controls, Generative AI, geopolitical competition, Global AI governance, Global South, global supply chains, institutional influence, international organizations, multilateralism, polycentric governance, private-sector power, regulatory fragmentation, structural dependence, technical standards, technological sovereignty, UN Global Digital Compact, United States

The Politics of Global AI Governance

Shaza Arif0 Comments

Published: October 13, 2026 The growing gap between rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and inadequate verification mechanisms has created several challenges for the technology. In this context, global AI…

Archive, Arms Control & Nonproliferation, Emerging Threats, Strategic Adversariesadversaries, Aegis, Arms Control, Arms Race, ballistic missiles, China, Congressional Budget Office, countermeasures, cruise missiles, Defense Spending, Deterrence, directed energy weapons, escalation risk, Golden Dome, Government Accounting Office, Ground-Based Midcourse Defense, hypersonic missiles, interceptors, international affairs, Iran, Iron Dome, lasers, military escalation, Military Technology, missile defense, national defense strategy, National Security, New START, non-kinetic capabilities, North Korea, nuclear arsenal, nuclear threats, opportunity cost, Patriot, Russia, security policy, space-based sensors, Star Wars, Strategic Defense Initiative, THAAD, vulnerability

Would Golden Dome Make America Safer?

Darrell Allen0 Comments

Published: October 5, 2026 In February 2022, days after Russian forces crossed into Ukraine, Putin placed his nuclear arsenal on high alert and warned that any nation interfering would face…

AI & Deterrence, Archive, Defense & Security, Emerging Threatsagentic AI, AI adoption, artificial intelligence, competence, data limitations, decision-making, DeepMind, financial costs, hallucinations, Information Security, machine learning, model collapse, National Security, natural language processing, probabilistic models, protein structure prediction, reinforcement learning, return on investment, technology limitations

Large Language Models Will Not Enhance National Security Decision Making

Alexis Schlotterback1 Comment

Published: September 22, 2026 Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, launched the first conversational large language model (LLM), ChatGPT, in late 2022 with only a short post on X. It has…

Allies & Extended Deterrence, Archive, Emerging Threats, Strategic Adversariesalliance deterrence, Arms Control, artificial intelligence, China, civilian nuclear infrastructure, conventional war, CRINK, cyber warfare, defense policy, drones, Foreign Policy, France, Hypersonic Weapons, Iran, Japan, midterm elections, military preparedness, National Security, NATO, nonproliferation, North Korea, nuclear modernization, nuclear proliferation, nuclear umbrella, nuclear war, OODA loop, public opinion, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, space arms control, space-based weapons, strategic mind games, strategic nuclear weapons, strategic power, tactical nuclear weapons, Taiwan, United States

Nuclear Deterrence and the Midterm Elections

gsharpe & Stephen Cimbala0 Comments

Published: August 31, 2926 As the United States heads toward another set of midterm Congressional elections in November 2026, issues related to nuclear weapons, including deterrence, arms control, and nonproliferation, will be important. Whether candidates will…

Archive, Defense & Security, Emerging Threats, Strategic AdversariesAlgorithmic throughput, Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD), Asymmetric deterrence, Attritional warfare, autonomous systems, Cost asymmetry, Distributed manufacturing, Electromagnetic spectrum (EMS), Electronic warfare (EW), FPV drones, Industrial mass, loitering munitions, Mesh networking, Multi-axis mixed-salvo, Reconstitution, Sensor-to-shooter compression, Software-defined combat, Uncrewed systems, Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs)

The Swarm Matrix Asymmetric Deterrence, Reconstitution, and the Tech-Industrial Future of Peer Conflict

Joshua Thibert0 Comments

Published: August 25, 2026 The geometric convergence of advanced software integration, affordable autonomous systems, and distributed manufacturing has broken the long-standing paradigm of capital-intensive, platform-focused power projection. Observations from today’s…

Allies & Extended Deterrence, Archive, Arms Control & Nonproliferation, Emerging Threats, Strategic Adversariesalgorithmic deterrence instability, algorithmic warfare, asset protection, autonomous systems, behavioral authentication, Civil-Military Fusion, civil-military fusion programs, command and control, corporate counterespionage, corporate software integrity, counterintelligence, data exfiltration, defense industrial base, defense technology, deterrence by denial, economic statecraft, electronic warfare, escalation ladder, espionage, gray-zone collection, Great Power Competition, Indo-Pacific, information environment, innovation ecosystem, insider espionage, insider threat, integrated deterrence, intellectual property, International Relations theory, machine-learning models, Offense-Defense Balance, psychological uncertainty, Replicator program, software architecture, software security, statecraft, strategic miscalculation, strategic stability, structural realism, supply chains, swarm coordination, unmanned networks

The Blind Spot of Integrated Deterrence: Modern Defense Tech Requires a Counterintelligence Revival

Joshua Thibert0 Comments

Published: August 17, 2026 The foundational calculus of international security is undergoing a radical and technologically driven transformation. In the Pentagon’s latest strategic guidance, the traditional concept of deterrence has…

Archive, Deterrence & Foreign Policy, Emerging Threats, Strategic Adversariesasymmetric leverage, Bab el-Mandeb, ballistic missiles, Basij, capturing its core themes and entities: Iran, ceasefire, Deterrence, drones, GCC, houthis, IRGC, managed conflict, maritime security, negotiations, nuclear program, proxy warfare, red sea, regional instability, sanctions, Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s Strategic Logic of Instability

Mohamed ELDoh0 Comments

Published: July 31, 2026 The previously concluded and now cancelled US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) revealed a paradox at the heart of the Middle East security landscape. Both sides have…

Archive, Arms Control & Nonproliferation, Bonus Reads, Deterrence & Foreign Policy, Emerging Threats, Space Deterrence & Conflict, Strategic Adversariesanti-satellite weapons, Chinese military thought, cognitive superiority, cyber deception, damage limitation, decision-cycle maneuver, decoy satellites, distributed architectures, electromagnetic deception, electromagnetic signatures, information deception, integrated interagency planning, offensive counterspace capabilities, rapid reconstitution, space deterrence, space maneuver warfare, strategic culture, strategic deception, systems confrontation

Space Fortitude: Applying the Lessons of Operation Fortitude to Space Deterrence and Warfighting

Christopher Stone0 Comments

Published: July 28, 2026 Throughout military history, few deception operations have rivaled the strategic brilliance of Operation Fortitude. Conducted before the Allied invasion of Normandy in June 1944, Fortitude did not seek to…

Allies & Extended Deterrence, Archive, Arms Control & Nonproliferation, Defense & Security, Economics & Trade, Emerging Threats, Geopolitics in Deterrence, Strategic Adversariesagility, alliance credibility, Australia, bilateral deterrence, cascading effects, China, competitive advantage, dynamic resilience, economic dependence, escalation management, friction engine, geopolitical risk, Indo-Pacific, military modernization, multipolar era, networked deterrence, nonlinear environment, nuclear deterrent, power distribution, security dependence, stability illusion, strategic compression, synthesis, systemic friction, trade interdependence, U.S. extended nuclear deterrence, vulnerability

The Impossibility of Strategic Stability in a Multipolar Era: From Brittle Walls to Dynamic Resilience

Natalie Treloar & Jean-Claude Meledje0 Comments

Published: July 27, 2026 For over a century, the primary objective of global diplomacy has been the pursuit of “stability.” From the Concert of Europe through the bipolar rigidity of the Cold War, stability was…