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Deconstructing Deterrence

Deconstructing Deterrence

Since October 7, 2023, the term “deterrence” has circulated with increased frequency. There is one problem: as it is currently defined and understood, deterrence does not work. The Oxford Essential…
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Failed Deterrence and Misplaced Compellence in Gaza

Failed Deterrence and Misplaced Compellence in Gaza

The October 7, 2023, Hamas surprise attack on Israel proved that Israel’s strategy of deterrence was a failure. After two destructive wars in Gaza, in 2014 and 2021, the hope that…
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Forecasting an Imminent Israeli Strike on Iran

Forecasting an Imminent Israeli Strike on Iran

Multiple converging factors point toward a high probability of a renewed and more expansive Israeli strike against Iran within the coming months, most likely between September and October 7, 2025,…
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Is America’s Foreign Policy Incoherent?

Is America’s Foreign Policy Incoherent?

American history is imbued with a long-standing skepticism of intervention and long-term commitments that began with George Washington’s farewell address. While there is wisdom in this view, it is even…
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