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Gaza

Failed Deterrence and Misplaced Compellence in Gaza

Failed Deterrence and Misplaced Compellence in Gaza

The October 7, 2023, Hamas surprise attack on Israel proved that Israel’s strategy of deterrence was a failure. After two destructive wars in Gaza, in 2014 and 2021, the hope that…
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Forecasting an Imminent Israeli Strike on Iran

Forecasting an Imminent Israeli Strike on Iran

Multiple converging factors point toward a high probability of a renewed and more expansive Israeli strike against Iran within the coming months, most likely between September and October 7, 2025,…
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The Return of the United States Primacy

The Return of the United States Primacy

The death of the United States’ unipolar moment is exaggerated. Foreign policy experts claiming the United States is on the decline and international relations are headed to multipolarity are less…
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Trump’s Disintegrated Deterrence and Lessons for Australia

Trump’s Disintegrated Deterrence and Lessons for Australia

The American approach to deterrence has undergone a significant transformation during the initial months of President Donald Trump’s second administration. Where President Joe Biden’s national security strategy was premised on…
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Is This the Right Moment to Act Against Iran on All Fronts?

Is This the Right Moment to Act Against Iran on All Fronts?

The Middle East experienced significant geopolitical shifts over the past year. In October 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, resulting in approximately 1,200 Israeli deaths. Israel’s subsequent military response led…
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Now That Trump Is Back, What Should Arab States Do?

Now That Trump Is Back, What Should Arab States Do?

With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Arab states already face a pivotal moment in shaping their foreign policy. Known for his transactional diplomacy and “America First” approach, Trump…
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ICBM EAR Report for December 20th

ICBM EAR Report for December 20th

Summary Report for ICBM EAR Report of December 20, 2024 The EAR Report is a must read for National security professionals to stay informed about rapidly evolving global threats and…
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The Geostrategic Mind of Iran

The Geostrategic Mind of Iran

The geographical position and long-standing ambitions for regional influence are long-time influences of Iran’s geostrategic thinking. As a state that controls a critical part of the Strait of Hormuz, a…
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It’s 1938, not 1968

It’s 1938, not 1968

The presidential campaign is heading into its climactic final months. Pundits and politicians are inevitably drawing analogies between present and past events in domestic politics and foreign policy. This year,…
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What a Kamala Harris Presidency Means for Deterrence

What a Kamala Harris Presidency Means for Deterrence

As Americans weigh their vote for president in November’s election, the implications of a Kamala Harris presidency for nuclear deterrence and foreign policy warrant careful consideration. Harris, with seven years…
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The Consequences of Nuclear Disarmament

The Consequences of Nuclear Disarmament

Advocates of nuclear abolition wish humanity could live in a world without nuclear weapons. However, results of such a policy could be catastrophic. Bad actors, for example, would likely cheat…
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