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Deterrence

Beyond a Pacific Defense Pact 2: Gray zone campaigns and activities conducted by China, North Korea, and Russia in the Indo-Pacific

Beyond a Pacific Defense Pact 2: Gray zone campaigns and activities conducted by China, North Korea, and Russia in the Indo-Pacific

Published: April 6, 2026 Strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific is increasingly taking place in the “gray zone”—the space between routine state competition and open warfare. Rather than relying solely on…
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Reciprocity in Deterrence, Not Just Trade

Reciprocity in Deterrence, Not Just Trade

Published: April 2, 2026 On December 23, 2025, the Pentagon released its annual 2025 China Military Power Report to Congress—a reminder that America is still trying to deter tomorrow with…
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Deterrence on Layaway: A Shutdown’s Quiet Assault on American Security

Deterrence on Layaway: A Shutdown’s Quiet Assault on American Security

Published: March 30, 2026 A nation does not need to lose a battle to look weak. Sometimes it only needs to miss a paycheck. Washington often treats budget shutdowns as…
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Beyond a Pacific Defense Pact 3: A Nuclear Alliance as the Ultimate Backstop to Grey Zone Coercion

Beyond a Pacific Defense Pact 3: A Nuclear Alliance as the Ultimate Backstop to Grey Zone Coercion

Published: March 26, 2026 Strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific increasingly occurs in the grey zone, the space between routine statecraft and open armed conflict. China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran…
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A Blueprint for Deterring War Over Taiwan

A Blueprint for Deterring War Over Taiwan

Published: March 23, 2026 Two parties have watched Operation Epic Fury (OEF) from a distance. China has been taking notes. The United States Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) has tracked munitions consumption…
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Why Ideology Matters in Irregular Warfare

Why Ideology Matters in Irregular Warfare

Published: March 17, 2026 Ideology matters, as I learned from surviving 18 years under the Chavista regime in Venezuela. The United States pretended otherwise for three decades, clinging to the…
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Red Sea Uncertainty: A 2026 Forecast for the Houthis Actions

Red Sea Uncertainty: A 2026 Forecast for the Houthis Actions

Published: March 10, 2026 (Editor’s Note: This article was submitted before the U.S.-Iran conflict began. We intentionally left the article as “forward looking” to signify the value of the analysis.)…
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Beyond a Pacific Defense Pact: Why the Indo-Pacific Requires a Nuclear Alliance

Beyond a Pacific Defense Pact: Why the Indo-Pacific Requires a Nuclear Alliance

Published: March 5, 2026 The Indo-Pacific is entering a far more dangerous strategic era. Military modernization, grey-zone coercion, and rapid nuclear expansion are reshaping the regional balance of power. Most…
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Diplomacy in Great Power Competition and the Limits of Economic Statecraft

Diplomacy in Great Power Competition and the Limits of Economic Statecraft

As contemporary rivals, the United States and China echo historical patterns of major competition between an established and a rising power, described within Graham Allison's article, “The Thucydides Trap: Are…
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America’s Managed Retreat: How the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy Shifts the Burden to Allies

America’s Managed Retreat: How the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy Shifts the Burden to Allies

The United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) is a document that has been written under the shadow of economic strain and military overreach, and it raises the slogan of…
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Greenland, Strategic Denial, and the Survivability of U.S. Nuclear Forces

Greenland, Strategic Denial, and the Survivability of U.S. Nuclear Forces

Greenland’s strategic importance lies not in symbolism, climate change, or future economic potential, but in its role at the center of modern deterrence. The island anchors the ability of the…
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No Treaty, No Panic: Deterrence and Stability After New START

No Treaty, No Panic: Deterrence and Stability After New START

The expiration of the New START Treaty on February 5, 2026 has fueled concerns that, absent formal limits, uncertainty surrounding U.S. and Russian nuclear forces could generate instability and elevate…
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