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Deterrence

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Arms Race in South Asia

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Arms Race in South Asia

When India’s AI-powered missile defense system intercepted a simulated hypersonic threat in 2023, American analysts were surprised by the ethical framework guiding its development. In South Asia, rapid AI adoption…
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Making Nuclear Blackmail Great Again

Making Nuclear Blackmail Great Again

After World War I, the United States and its allies sought arms control solutions to what were political problems. Proposals such as a ban on war and restrictions on the…
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The Uncertain Future of Nuclear Deterrence and Proliferation

The Uncertain Future of Nuclear Deterrence and Proliferation

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was signed between the United States and the Soviet Union in 1987; it lasted until the United States withdrew in 2019. It contributed to…
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Illogic of Nuclear Disarmament in the Contemporary Era

Illogic of Nuclear Disarmament in the Contemporary Era

  Since the beginning of the nuclear age, the international community consistently made efforts toward disarmament. However, the world saw both vertical and horizontal nuclear proliferation. Nuclear-armed states are modernizing…
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Mutually Assured Destruction

Mutually Assured Destruction

Mutually assured destruction or MAD is not an American doctrine or military strategy. Those who believe MAD is how America deters nuclear-armed adversaries assume that any use of nuclear weapons by the United States…
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This Week in Deterrence (September 15-19, 2025)

This Week in Deterrence (September 15-19, 2025)

This past week was maelstrom of activities in deterrence. We are seeing a shift of the forces reshaping deterrence across domains. Paramount is the urgency of integrating allied doctrine, accelerating…
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Deconstructing Deterrence

Deconstructing Deterrence

Since October 7, 2023, the term “deterrence” has circulated with increased frequency. There is one problem: as it is currently defined and understood, deterrence does not work. The Oxford Essential…
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Nuclear Danger Remains in Ukraine Peace Settlement

Nuclear Danger Remains in Ukraine Peace Settlement

The Alaska summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on August 15, 2025, together with the follow-on meetings in Washington, DC, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European heads…
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Deterring Nuclear Terrorism in the Era of Great Power Competition

Deterring Nuclear Terrorism in the Era of Great Power Competition

As the Cold War ended and new counterterrorism priorities took root in the 2000s, the threat of nuclear terrorism cemented itself as the ultimate catastrophic scenario. Dick Cheney famously stated…
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Restoring Ukraine Sovereignty Requires Restoring Deterrence

Restoring Ukraine Sovereignty Requires Restoring Deterrence

The impact on American security from the Ukraine conflict, especially the impact on the nuclear and extended deterrent for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are significant. A key part…
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A Nuclear Umbrella in Peril: Lessons from North Korea’s Escalation Scenarios

A Nuclear Umbrella in Peril: Lessons from North Korea’s Escalation Scenarios

What happens when the world’s most powerful nuclear arsenal blinks in the face of a nuclear strike? In a recent Atlantic Council “Guardian Tiger” exercise, the United States faced precisely…
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Failed Deterrence and Misplaced Compellence in Gaza

Failed Deterrence and Misplaced Compellence in Gaza

The October 7, 2023, Hamas surprise attack on Israel proved that Israel’s strategy of deterrence was a failure. After two destructive wars in Gaza, in 2014 and 2021, the hope that…
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