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Emerging Threats

Emerging Threats

Silent Signals: Russian and Chinese Conventional Threats to NC3 and U.S. Extended Deterrence in Australia

Silent Signals: Russian and Chinese Conventional Threats to NC3 and U.S. Extended Deterrence in Australia

Published: April 27, 2026 Introduction Russia’s recent deployment of a conventionally armed, diesel-powered submarine to Indonesia should not be dismissed as routine naval activity. It is a calculated strategic signal.…
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Assessing the Credibility of Manned Platforms in Contemporary Drone-Rich Combat Environment

Assessing the Credibility of Manned Platforms in Contemporary Drone-Rich Combat Environment

Published: April 23, 2026 Proliferation of unmanned systems in modern warfare has popularized the notion that traditional platforms have reached the end of their operational relevance. Particularly, the Russia-Ukraine war…
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Nuclear Deterrence in the Age of Emerging Technologies

Nuclear Deterrence in the Age of Emerging Technologies

Published: April 21, 2026 The amalgamation of emerging technologies and nuclear weapons systems is significantly impacting the landscape of strategic stability. The primary problem associated with such technologies is their…
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Reciprocity in Deterrence, Not Just Trade

Reciprocity in Deterrence, Not Just Trade

Published: April 2, 2026 On December 23, 2025, the Pentagon released its annual 2025 China Military Power Report to Congress—a reminder that America is still trying to deter tomorrow with…
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Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems: A New Battlefield Reality

Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems: A New Battlefield Reality

Published:  March 31, 2026  Technological advances and rising military expenditures in recent years have accelerated the development of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS). Though this technology is still in its…
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Beyond a Pacific Defense Pact 3: A Nuclear Alliance as the Ultimate Backstop to Grey Zone Coercion

Beyond a Pacific Defense Pact 3: A Nuclear Alliance as the Ultimate Backstop to Grey Zone Coercion

Published: March 26, 2026 Strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific increasingly occurs in the grey zone, the space between routine statecraft and open armed conflict. China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran…
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Redefining Espionage: The Unseen War for Technological Dominance

Redefining Espionage: The Unseen War for Technological Dominance

Published: March 24, 2026 The international system is undergoing a profound global power shift characterized by the resurgence of great power competition and a broad diffusion of technical capabilities. This…
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A Blueprint for Deterring War Over Taiwan

A Blueprint for Deterring War Over Taiwan

Published: March 23, 2026 Two parties have watched Operation Epic Fury (OEF) from a distance. China has been taking notes. The United States Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) has tracked munitions consumption…
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State-Sponsored Trolls as An Emerging Threat

State-Sponsored Trolls as An Emerging Threat

Published: March 19, 2026 The digital public square has transformed how Americans encounter information, debate ideas, and form political identities. Social media platforms promise open dialogue, but their algorithms often…
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Why Ideology Matters in Irregular Warfare

Why Ideology Matters in Irregular Warfare

Published: March 17, 2026 Ideology matters, as I learned from surviving 18 years under the Chavista regime in Venezuela. The United States pretended otherwise for three decades, clinging to the…
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Red Sea Uncertainty: A 2026 Forecast for the Houthis Actions

Red Sea Uncertainty: A 2026 Forecast for the Houthis Actions

Published: March 10, 2026 (Editor’s Note: This article was submitted before the U.S.-Iran conflict began. We intentionally left the article as “forward looking” to signify the value of the analysis.)…
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Late-Phase Failure and the Erosion of Military Effectiveness in Prolonged Conflict

Late-Phase Failure and the Erosion of Military Effectiveness in Prolonged Conflict

Contemporary defense analysis largely focuses on the opening phases of conflict. Initial force posture, technological advantage, and early operational momentum dominate planning assumptions. However, experience from recent high-intensity wars suggests…
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