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China’s Dual-Capable Missiles and Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation

China’s Dual-Capable Missiles and Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation

Published: September 14, 2026 China's expanding force of dual-capable missiles is creating a growing source of ambiguity in U.S.-China deterrence. The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) operates conventional and…
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An Indo-Pacific Nuclear Alliance Closes the Deterrence Gap Faster than Conventional

An Indo-Pacific Nuclear Alliance Closes the Deterrence Gap Faster than Conventional

Published: June 15, 2026 The Indo-Pacific is entering a period of acute strategic imbalance. China’s rapid military modernization across nuclear, conventional, cyber, and space domains has outpaced the ability of regional powers to…
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The Escalation Trajectory of U.S.-Iran Tensions After the Collapse of the Negotiations

The Escalation Trajectory of U.S.-Iran Tensions After the Collapse of the Negotiations

Published: May 18, 2026 (Originally written in April 2026) The failure of the U.S.-Iran negotiations that took place in Pakistan marks a decisive inflection point in the current Middle Eastern…
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A Nuclear Umbrella in Peril: Lessons from North Korea’s Escalation Scenarios

A Nuclear Umbrella in Peril: Lessons from North Korea’s Escalation Scenarios

What happens when the world’s most powerful nuclear arsenal blinks in the face of a nuclear strike? In a recent Atlantic Council “Guardian Tiger” exercise, the United States faced precisely…
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