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The Escalation Trajectory of U.S.-Iran Tensions After the Collapse of the Negotiations

Archive, Defense & Security, Strategic Adversariesanti-ship missiles, asymmetric capabilities, ballistic capabilities, ballistic missile development, coercive pressure, conflict, contingency planning, controlled escalation, defense strategy, diplomatic intervention, domestic stability, drone attacks, economic pressure, escalation, force posture, global oil trade, Gulf Corporation Council, Hezbollah, houthis, Iran nuclear program, Iraqi militias, IRGC, maritime blockade, maritime harassment, maritime oil exports, Middle East, military confrontation, military signaling, Miscalculation, naval mines, negotiations collapse, oil market volatility, operational flexibility, pre-positioned military assets, proxy attacks, red sea, regime survival, regional proxy networks, regional proxy warfare, regional spillover, regional stability, rhetoric, signaling, Strait of Hormuz, strategic risks, targeted military actions, third-party mediation, unintended escalation, US-Iran tensions

The Escalation Trajectory of U.S.-Iran Tensions After the Collapse of the Negotiations

Mohamed El Doh0 Comments

Published: May 18, 2026 (Originally written in April 2026) The failure of the U.S.-Iran negotiations that took place in Pakistan marks a decisive inflection point in the current Middle Eastern…

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Points, Counterpoints, and Starting Points

Archive, Defense & Security, Deterrence & Foreign Policy, Strategic Adversaries1997 Russia–Ukraine treaty, abducted Ukrainian children, Arms Control, Board of Peace, Budapest Memorandum (1994), ceasefire terms, constitutional neutrality (no NATO), demilitarized buffer zone, deterrence in Europe, deterrent value of nuclear weapons, Dnieper River access, drone attacks, education programs and “Nazi ideology” claims, elections within 100 days, European fighter jets in Poland, filtration camps, force and coercion, forced transfers, G8 invitation, global economy, Helsinki Final Act, humanitarian committee, missile strikes and escalation clauses, multinational force in Ukraine, NATO expansion, NATO open-door policy, NATO security assistance and training, NATO troop basing in Ukraine, NATO unity, non-aggression agreement, non-nuclear state status, nuclear nonproliferation, occupied territories, OSCE monitoring, partition, prisoners and hostages, reintegration of Russia, Reuters, Russian aggression, sabotage operations, security guarantees, stable and peaceful Europe, START Treaty, territorial integrity, transatlantic bond, Trump administration, Ukraine peace plan (28-point), Ukraine sovereignty, Ukrainian Armed Forces cap (600, UN Charter, US–Europe compromise plan, US–NATO role, US–Russian security taskforce, war crimes, wartime amnesty

Points, Counterpoints, and Starting Points

Alan Dowd0 Comments

The 28-point Ukraine peace plan the Trump administration recently delivered is highly problematic for a number of reasons. The document’s starting point, endpoint, and very premise raise concern for anyone…

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What It Takes to Neutralize the Houthi Threat

Archive, Emerging Threats, Strategic AdversariesArab states, Arab unity, ballistic missile capabilities, Bandar Abbas, civilian infrastructure, cyber disruptions, drone attacks, Egypt, financial isolation, geopolitical leverage, global shipping disruption, Horn of Africa, Houthi threat, intelligence cooperation, Iran-backed Houthis, Iranian support, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Israel airstrikes, maritime security, naval dominance, precision airstrikes, red sea, Red Sea Defense Compact, regional security, regional stability, Saudi Arabia, Saudi-UAE reconciliation, Socotra, special operations, Suez Canal, UAE, US bombing, US-Egypt defense cooperation, weapons smuggling, Yemen

What It Takes to Neutralize the Houthi Threat

Mohamed ELDoh3 Comments

The Red Sea has re-emerged as a vital fault line in the struggle for regional power, maritime security, and geopolitical leverage. At the center of this growing turbulence stand the Iran-backed Houthis…

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