ALERT! The U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance has been renamed to the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability (ADS) as of November 13, 2023. The official announcement explains that ADS will lead “Department of State efforts on developing, negotiating, implementing, and verifying compliance with a range of arms control and disarmament agreements and arrangements; extended deterrence; missile defense; confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs); risk reduction; and crisis communications.” The newly renamed bureau will also assume key responsibilities to tackle national security challenges “relating to artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum computing” while playing a key role in establishing and promoting norms of responsible behavior in outer space, cyberspace, and with artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.” As a result of the suspension, termination, or withdrawal of multiple arms control treaties, the level of “verification and compliance” has drastically decreased.
Diplomatic efforts toward addressing these modern national security challenges can “enhance integrated deterrence, global stability, and international security,” but only if these efforts result in favorable outcomes for America. Therefore, it is crucial that this renamed organization reorients its purpose and metrics accordingly. Pursuing many agreements, even if they are bad, is not a reliable way to measure success. The success of any agreement should only be measured by how effective it is. The three maxims to successful arms control agreements are:
- Any agreement that does not satisfy the national security needs of the parties will eventually be cheated on and thus fail
- Any agreement that does not have rigorous and regular verification procedures will eventually be cheated on and thus fail
- Any agreement that is not symmetrically desired by all parties will yield asymmetric results that benefit one party over another; the perception of any lopsided agreements will eventually be rejected and thus fail
The Bureau’s name change not only addresses “emerging 21st-century national security challenges,” but acknowledges the important role deterrence, specifically nuclear deterrence, plays in achieving and maintaining global stability. The National Institute for Deterrence Studies congratulates the ADS’s recognition that it “must modernize [its] approaches and expand [their] thinking to help build a more stable, peaceful world” and we stand ready to assist!