The intelligence community (IC) projects the Chinese nuclear warhead inventory will be approximately 1,500 warheads by 2035, but this may be a low estimate. According to projections from the IC and Department of Defense, the Chinese DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) can carry a maximum of three nuclear warheads. However, if all 360 newly constructed fixed silos are used to house the DF-41 missiles, which they are designed to house, it would mean a total of 1,080 warheads. This, when combined with the estimated 400 warheads already in the possession of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), would bring the total number of warheads to around 1,480. This is conveniently very close to the projected 1,500 warheads.
However, Chinese state-run media, the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS) Missile Defense Project, CNN, and the Federation of American Scientists all claim that the DF-41 may carry up to 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV). A MIRVed system aims to increase the missile’s counterforce capability and/or ensure penetration of American missile defense networks. Reportedly, the DF-41 has a payload of 2,500 kilograms—assuming 30 percent for the post boost vehicle and 70 percent for the warhead reentry vehicle (RV). This would provide 1,750 kilograms (kg) for warheads, or each of the 10 warheads could weigh up to 175 kg, which is feasible for a light RV.
The estimate of 1,500 warheads assumes that China will not add more DF-31AG, JL-3 SLBM, rail- or road-mobile DF-41 missiles, or additional silo-based DF-41 missiles beyond what is currently in the inventory. However, it is possible that the number could be much larger. If DF-41 ICBMs are deployed with an average of 5 warheads per missile—in the 360 new silos recently built—and there is a projected 25 percent increase in the assumed baseline of 400 other missiles, China could field an estimated 2,300 long-range strategic nuclear warheads.
This would be a significantly larger force than that of the United States. There is a concern that Chinese President Xi Jinping will use such a nuclear force to coerce or blackmail the US into capitulation during an attack on Taiwan. Given that 2035 is still over a decade away, the time is now to rectify this challenge.