ALERT! Confidence in American nuclear assurance seems to be diminishing with the Republic of Korea. A recent article titled “100 U.S. nuclear weapons should be committed to supporting S. Korea’s security against N.K. threats: report,” states that Kim Jong-un is planning to build a nuclear arsenal consisting of at least 300 and possibly up to 500 nuclear weapons. The 300-weapon threshold is expected to be reached by 2030.
Furthermore, the RAND/ASAN study associated with this report states that North Korea has already established a nuclear weapon force that could pose an existential threat to the ROK and is on the verge of posing a serious threat to the United States. The North hopes to use its nuclear weapon threat to the United States to help break the ROK-U.S. alliance. Additionally, KJU hopes to dominate the ROK without having to actually invade it, presumably through the use of nuclear “blackmail.”
In spite of the “Washington Declaration” made on April 26, 2023, where the ROK expressed its full confidence in the U.S. extended deterrence commitments, bipartisan South Korean and U.S. think tanks are urging the U.S. to modernize almost 100 U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, which were initially planned to be dismantled, at the ROK’s expense. These weapons could be stored in the United States but would be committed to supporting the ROK and could be quickly deployed to the country.
It is crucial for South Korea to effectively deter a nuclear-armed and hostile North Korea. Therefore, the United States must take more decisive actions to reassure its ally and deter an adversary that not only poses an existential threat to South Korea but an increasingly catastrophic threat to the American homeland.