In Northeast Asia, growing tensions around the Korean Peninsula are likely, with the possibility of a confrontation in the coming years.
Kim Jong Un is consolidating his grip on power through a combination of patronage and dread and is doubling down on his nuclear and missile programs, developing long-range missiles that may soon endanger the continental USA.
Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington have a shared incentive to handle security risks in Northeast Asia, but a history of warfare and occupation along with current distrust makes cooperation difficult.
Continued North Korean provocations, such as additional nuclear and missile tests, may worsen equilibrium in the region and immediate nations to take actions, sometimes unilaterally, to defend their security interests.
Kim is determined to secure international recognition of the North as a nuclear-nation, for safety, prestige, and political legitimacy. With the news from U.S. President Donald Trump that he would be willing to engage in a meeting with the North Korean dictator, it now seems that Kim is on track to securing that status which he so deeply craves.
Contrary to his father and grandfather, he has previously signaled little interest in participating in talks on denuclearization. He codified the North’s nuclear status in the party constitution in 2012 and reaffirmed it during the Party Congress in 2016.
Now, that seems to have changed, as well. North Korea is reportedly willing to discuss the possibility of their relinquishing their nuclear weapons in exchange for a security guarantee, according to statements made by South Korean officials.
Beijing faces a continuing strategic conundrum about the North. Pyongyang’s behavior both undermines China’s argument that the US army presence in the region is anachronistic and demonstrates Beijing’s lack of influence—or perhaps lack of political will to exert influence—within its neighbor and customer. Now, with North Korea seeming to be on track to engage in direct talks with the U.S., China has been summarily cut out of the process.
North Korean behavior leads to tightening US alliances, more assertive action by US allies, and, on occasion, greater cooperation between these partners themselves—and might lead to a change in Beijing’s approach to North Korea with time.
Japan Will Enhance Its Military and Security Capabilities
Having come out of a particularly disruptive year in terms of domestic politics and subsequently securing another term as Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has the political mandate to pursue his agenda of reforming the Japanese constitution.
The snap election in October 2017 was seen as a referendum on Abe’s ambitious proposal to revise the Japanese Constitution to pave the way for the normalization of the country’s military and to pass an enormous economic reform package.
North Korea’s persistent weapons tests, particularly the ones which involve launching missiles on Japanese territory, undoubtedly helped to drum up support for the Prime Minister and his party.
Japan will likely pursue increased spending on its military and become a more significant presence in the region, particularly as China has begun flexing its maritime muscles in the East China Sea and the heavily contested South China Sea.
If China continues to escalate its island-building and militarization programs in the South China Sea, Japan will likely join the U.S. in performing “freedom of navigation” exercises in an attempt to de-normalize Chinese encroachment in the region.