December 6 ICBM EAR Report – By: Peter Huessy
This week’s ICBM EAR Report is a must-read. Here is a summary of what you need to know.
Notable Quotes: The week’s top quotes emphasize the importance of maintaining and modernizing the United States’ strategic deterrence capabilities to address the growing threats from peer nuclear adversaries, particularly Russia and China. The quotes highlight the necessity of investing in defense to ensure global stability and deter potential conflicts.
- Congressional Developments
Summary:
- Bipartisan discussions are ongoing to prevent a government shutdown, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer optimistic about progress.
- The NDAA for fiscal 2025 is nearing completion, with final issues being resolved at the congressional leader level.
- Key discussions include controlling trade with China and fostering AI development.
- Lawmakers aim to file the NDAA compromise package by the end of the week and send it to the White House by Christmas.
Key Takeaways:
- Bipartisan efforts are crucial to avoid a government shutdown.
- The NDAA is close to finalization, focusing on trade and AI.
- Timely filing and approval of the NDAA are essential to meet the legislative deadline.
- Reagan Forum
Summary:
- The Reagan Defense Forum on December 7, 2024, highlighted significant strategic discussions.
- Key speakers included Senator Fisher, Admiral Paparo, and Marine Corps Head Gen Eric Smith.
- Topics covered included China’s military ambitions, the importance of deterrence, and the need for a strong defense budget.
Key Takeaways:
- China’s military expansion and ambitions regarding Taiwan are major concerns.
- Strong deterrence and defense funding are essential to maintain global stability.
- The US must prioritize strategic investments to counter potential threats from adversaries.
- US Administration Developments
Summary:
- The Biden administration released a nuclear employment guidance report, leaving major decisions to the incoming Trump administration.
- The report emphasizes the need to deter multiple adversaries simultaneously but does not mandate an increase in nuclear forces.
- The guidance supports integrating non-nuclear capabilities into nuclear planning.
Key Takeaways:
- The Biden administration’s guidance leaves room for the Trump administration to shape nuclear strategy.
- Deterring multiple adversaries is a key focus, but no immediate increase in nuclear forces is required.
- Integration of non-nuclear capabilities is emphasized for a comprehensive deterrence strategy.
- Special Reports
Summary:
- Reports cover various critical topics, including the situation in Ukraine, the potential onset of World War III, and the prospects for nuclear anarchy.
- A detailed assessment highlights the need for the US to maintain and modernize its Sentinel ICBM force.
- The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) essay argues against worrying about China’s nuclear buildup, suggesting it won’t match US or Russian capabilities.
Key Takeaways:
- The global security environment is increasingly volatile, with significant conflicts and nuclear threats.
- Maintaining and modernizing the US nuclear arsenal, particularly the Sentinel ICBM force, is crucial for deterrence.
There is debate over the significance of China’s nuclear buildup and its implications for US security policy.
Peter Huessy is a senior fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. Views expressed in his reports are his own.
There is much more to read in the full report, download below.
About the Author
Peter Huessy
Mr. Peter Huessy is President of his own defense consulting firm, Geostrategic Analysis, founded in 1981, and through 2021, Director of Strategic Deterrent Studies at the Mitchell Institute on Aerospace Studies. He was the senior defense consultant at the National Defense University Foundation for 22 years. He was the National Security Fellow at the AFPC, and Senior Defense Consultant at the Air Force Association from 2011-2016.
Mr. Huessy has served as an expert defense and national security analyst for over 50 years, helping his clients cover congressional activities, arms control group efforts, nuclear armed states actions, and US administration nuclear related policy, budgets, and strategies, while monitoring budget and policy developments on nuclear deterrence, ICBM modernization, nuclear arms control, and overall nuclear modernization.
He has also covered nuclear terrorism, counterterrorism, immigration, state-sponsored terrorism, missile defense, weapons of mass destruction, especially US-Israeli joint defense efforts, nuclear deterrence, arms control, proliferation, as well as tactical and strategic air, airlift, space and nuclear matters and such state and non-state actors as North Korea, China, Iran, Syria, Venezuela and Hezbollah, Hamas, and Al Qaeda. This also includes monitoring activities of think tanks, non-governmental organizations, and other US government departments, as well as projecting future actions of Congress in this area. His specialty is developing and implementing public policy campaigns to secure support for important national security objectives. And analyzing nuclear related technology and its impact on public policy, a study of which he prepared for the Aerospace Corporation in 2019.
