As the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture argued in its October 2023 report, the United States neglected to sustain political legitimacy through a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape by allowing the nation’s nuclear deterrent to degrade over the past three decades, despite the clear resurgence of Russia, China, and North Korea. Integrated deterrence, a cornerstone […]

The European dream of peace and security for all of Europe is within reach with a new proposed European security architecture. It is an architecture that corrects an ongoing and prevailing North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) malady. While NATO was originally based on a model of shared responsibility, it has morphed into an alliance where […]

The United States Air Force (USAF) is expanding the integration of stealth technology beyond fighters and bombers to encompass aerial refueling. Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works proposed design for the Next-Generation Air-Refueling System (NGAS), the KC-Z, showcases this critical evolution as it addresses a significant vulnerability—the exposure of low-observable aircraft during mid-air refueling. By incorporating stealth, […]

Differences in birth rates between countries can affect their demographics, with dire implications for national security. These differences can shift states’ relative economic and military power. They can also alter comparative standards of living and lead to domestic unrest. In a worst case, demographic trends in the wrong direction, between blocs that oppose one another […]

Recent action by the United States and like-minded nations to defend Israel from an unprecedented Iranian airstrike demonstrates how the United States and NATO can defend their allies and partners against similar air threats. With a 99 percent success rate in downing Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and long-range attack drones, this should serve as […]

During the Cold War, strategists used applied math for insights into nuclear strategy. Their techniques included game theory, macroeconomics, and systems analysis. These models, brilliant as their creators were, had flaws. They led to equations that could be studied in fascinating detail, yielding great academic “publish or perish” rewards and even some Nobel Prizes, but […]

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) into stealth and radar technologies represents a key element of the race to the top of defense technologies currently taking place. These offensive and defensive capabilities are constantly evolving with AI/ML serving as the next step in their evolution. Integrating AI/ML into low-observable technology presents […]

The United States government finds itself in an unprecedented financial situation. Over the next 12 months, the amount of public debt held by the federal government will exceed the size of the nation’s economy. As a fraction of gross domestic product (GDP), debt has grown to a size not seen since the end of World […]

In the early hours of March 26, 2024, the MV Dali, carrying over 4,000 containers, suffered a complete loss of power and struck a support pillar of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. This collapsed the bridge and blocked access to the Patapsco River and the 17 terminals in Baltimore Harbor. The incident caused disruptions for […]

Beyond halting Russia, American political and military support for Ukraine plays a crucial role in preventing China from escalating its aggression against Western democracies. The recent approval of a supplemental aid package by the US Congress and President Joe Biden represents a significant stride in fortifying Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression. However, this assistance primarily […]

In the Middle East, the necessity for an anti-Iran alliance is apparent. Iran’s aggressive foreign policy, support for terrorism, and pursuit of nuclear capabilities continue to pose a significant threat to regional stability and global security. As a result, the formation of a united front comprising key Middle Eastern nations and the West, led by […]

Iran is now “closer than ever” to having nuclear weapons, which should “alarm” every American. Given Iran’s professed genocidal objectives toward Israel, Tehran’s terrorism-sponsoring regime should never be allowed to get nuclear arms. A comparison of recommendations for multilateral diplomacy and sanctions written in 2007 and 2023 offer no evidence of success. Experts now say […]

The United States stands at a critical juncture. As tensions rise and threats from Russia, China, North Korea and Iran evolve, it is paramount that the nation ensure it possess the strength needed to defend against adversary aggression. Central to this effort is the need to foster competition in key areas of the defense industrial […]

The intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and strategic intelligence operations represents a pivotal frontier in the security landscape. Rapid advancements in AI, machine learning (ML), and data analytics will revolutionize the capabilities of intelligence agencies worldwide, offering unprecedented opportunities for enhanced situational awareness, predictive analysis, and decision-making support. From counterterrorism efforts to geopolitical forecasting, […]

The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) is one of the main foreign policy initiatives of Azerbaijan. In his swearing-in ceremony in February 2024 Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, described the OTS as the main international organization for Azerbaijan and announced that Baku’s future foreign policy goal would be focused on making the OTS one of the […]

On February 28, 2024, the Chamber of Industry and Commerce of Tokyo, which is also Japan’s largest start-up hub, held a Japan Air Self-Defense Force–sponsored online event, “Space Security and Business: International Collaboration and Private Sector Cooperation Driving Space Security and Business Prospects.” The Japanese government first announced its Space Security Initiative in June 2023. […]

The Albanese government’s 2024 National Defence Strategy (NDS), and its accompanying Integrated Investment Program (IIP), both released on April 17, represent the beginning of a biennial process of defense policy development called for in the 2023 Defence Strategic Review (DSR) and represent official Australian defense policy. All three documents note the importance of the space […]

The September 11, 2001, terrorist attack on the United States was a watershed moment that changed the focus of American national defense. In 2021, Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs released a report estimating international terrorism cost at $8 trillion in resources and over 900,000 lives. Decades of prioritizing terrorism, while neglecting […]

Since the establishment of the United States Space Force in 2019, many in the federal defense establishment have aggressively fought to prevent the establishment of the Space National Guard. The reasons are numerous. In 2020 there was a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report that claimed a Space National Guard component would be enormously expensive and […]

It is time to restation nuclear weapons in South Korea. The United States must modernize extended deterrence and strengthen the assurance of allies across the Indo-Pacific region. While the United States and South Korea previously agreed to station weapons from 1958 until the end of 1991, that agreement was part of an earlier nuclear posture […]

Introduction        Two years have passed since the United States announced a unilateral ban on the testing of destructive anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. The ban was announced on April 12, 2022, and hailed as a first step towards establishing a norms of responsible behavior to further the ideal of sustainability in outer space. Several states, including many […]

As the war in Ukraine grinds on with mounting casualties on both sides, Americans are debating whether to continue funding Kyiv’s war effort. Ukraine, however, faces two far greater long-term challenges to its existence as a nation-state. These are serious demographic declines—that will leave it with a shrinking and aging population—and the huge cost of […]

In an era marked by escalating tensions, the concept of nuclear deterrence still holds profound significance and elicits multifaceted discussion and debate. One proposition in the defense community is the reintroduction of a non-strategic nuclear capability within the United States Navy, by way of the sea-launched cruise missile-nuclear (SLCM-N). What is missing in the debate […]

For America to pragmatically solve the nuclear strategy three body problem—simultaneously deterring Russia, China, and North Korea—the United States must compensate for three characteristics of the international system: realpolitik, fake news, and sociopathic dictators. These, unfortunately for global peacekeeping, interact in a feedback loop, which forms a deadly three-player game of its own. In game […]

The recent allocation of $409 million in funding by the United States Air Force (USAF) to revitalize an airfield on the island of Tinian signifies a definitive long-term investment and commitment to American deterrence throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The history of the United States military’s affiliation with Tinian is closely tied to the island’s strategic […]

In August 2002, an Iranian opposition group, Mujahideen e-Khalq, held a conference warning the West that the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) was building nuclear facilities in two Iranian cities, Natanz and Arak. Although the news took Western decision-makers, or at least the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), by surprise, the British-American nuclear strategist, Colin […]

There are at least five compelling reasons for supporting continued American efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear arms. This is despite the aggressive nuclear buildup of Russia and China. First, there is concern that rogue states and terrorist groups with nuclear weapons would seek to bring on the very Armageddon deterrence is designed to […]

At the core of American deterrence is the question of right-sizing the arsenal. Given the growing arsenals of China, North Korea, and Russia, there is ample reason to question whether the United States has the right size and type of nuclear weapons. The issue has many facets and is the subject of active research and […]

When the United States withdrew its nuclear forces from the Korean Peninsula in 1991, it could not have known how the strategic environment would change over the next three decades. Today, alternative strategies to current nuclear weapons policy are needed. Understanding the fluid nature of the nuclear threat to South Korea from the north and […]

The topic of rebuilding a European nuclear deterrent in a world of finite American resources was the topic discussed by Max Hoell in one of Peter Huessy’s recent online seminars. The discussion touched on the evolving challenges to American extended deterrence in Europe amidst growing nuclear capabilities and assertiveness from China, North Korea, Russia, and, […]

Advocates of nuclear abolition wish humanity could live in a world without nuclear weapons. However, results of such a policy could be catastrophic. Bad actors, for example, would likely cheat on such a ban. Russia, for example, has a long track record of cheating on international agreements. As with all law, it is only the […]

In a recent Foreign Affairs article, Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates writes, The United States now confronts graver threats to its security than it has in decades, perhaps ever. Never has it faced four allied antagonists at the same time—Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran—whose collective nuclear arsenal could within a few years be […]

Annie Jacobsen’s new book, Nuclear War: A Scenario, is receiving rave reviews. It portrays a scenario in which a limited North Korean nuclear strike on the United States spirals into global thermonuclear war between the United States and Russia, ultimately killing a significant portion of the world’s population. For Jacobsen, who treats her fictional scenario […]

The post–Cold War period’s absence of nuclear competition led the American military to believe that the only way to win a nuclear war was to never fight one. This belief is challenged by Russia and China who do not share that view. For both nations, nuclear weapons are tools that can affect the outcome of battle and do […]

The Cheyenne Mountain Complex is a military installation located in Colorado and designed to provide command-and-control functions for the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and the United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM). In the hypothetical event that Russia launched a surprise intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) nuclear attack on this base, employing a Russian SS-27 800-kiloton […]

On March 20, 2024, the House Armed Services Committee hosted a hearing on military posture and challenges in the Indo-Pacific. Assistant Secretary of Defense, Ely Ratner, testified that “China continues to present the most comprehensive and serious challenge to the United States’ national security.” He added, “That’s because China remains the only country with the […]

In testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee on March 1, 2024, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director, Christopher Wray, confirmed a wide array of national security threats are coming across America’s border. These threats include violent criminal gangs, prison gangs, human trafficking, and illicit drugs. Director Wray also stated, “The FBI alone seized enough fentanyl […]

Space forms an infinite supranational common, which, as ultimate high ground, envelops the Earth and offers significant opportunity positive or negative use. Whoever can achieve on-orbit military superiority has the potential to surround their adversary. Earth’s orbit is already littered with too much debris from a handful of anti-satellite tests and debris-generating events and has […]

Einstein once said that he did not know how World War III would be fought, but World War IV would be fought with sticks and stones. Nuclear abolitionists, in their zeal to put the nuclear genie back in the bottle, will bring that about. Several months ago, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists published an article […]

The Conference on Disarmament for the United Nations met on March 18th, 2024. Sixty-five member states were in attendance, including nuclear powers such as China, France, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia, the UK, and the US. This meeting highlights ongoing global efforts toward nuclear disarmament and the complexities of maintaining nuclear deterrence while still supporting disarmament. […]

It is naïve to classify Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis as terrorist organizations, simply because they use terror tactics. They are Iranian “irregular forces” and an extension of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In many ways, they are Iran’s foreign legion or Wagner Group—organized, trained, and equipped by the IRGC. This is not a […]

The federal budget is currently working its way through Congress. The most visible target for cuts is the Department of Defense, in particular, nuclear modernization accounts. In 2010, Congress and the Obama administration reached an agreement that saw the Senate ratify the New START treaty in return for the administration’s support of nuclear modernization. This […]

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) many strategic documents, leader speeches, and summit communiques regularly repeat the moniker, “As long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will remain a nuclear alliance.” This is an acknowledgement of reality and the fact that nuclear weapons are fundamental to the alliance. NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group also provides participating allies […]

An American grand strategy of inhibition, characterized by efforts to curtail the spread of independent nuclear weapons programs, has long been a cornerstone of American foreign policy. Rooted in the belief that preventing nuclear proliferation is essential for global security, this strategy led the United States to employ a range of tactics, including diplomatic negotiations, […]

When the Ukraine war broke out, India implemented a series of policy measures that took the West by surprise. In the United Nations General Assembly, it refused to condemn the Russian invasion and, instead, along with 34 other nations, chose to abstain from the vote. That meant that 4.4 billion people, a majority of the […]

America’s nuclear arms agreements with the Soviet Union and then Russia have contributed to significant reductions in nuclear arms. Despite the bilateral reduction 90 percent of the American and Russian nuclear arsenals, arms control efforts with China are going nowhere and Russia keeps thousands of theater nuclear weapons beyond the reach of arms control. While […]

Since the Islamist Revolution (1979) Iran’s strategic intent experienced little change—drive the United States out of the Middle East. The Iranian regime aims at establishing dominance in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza, Yemen, and the Gulf of Aden. There are two ways to achieve the regime’s objectives. First, Iran can cross the […]

Former President Donald Trump’s views on Europe are consistent. He has long criticized North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member-states for their failure to spend the required 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. For Trump, free riding is anathema. He recently said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” […]

China’s nuclear breakout and Russia’s ongoing aggression leave many Western analysts uncertain as to what is in the mind of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. Nuclear deterrence remains the most potent strategy at preventing great-power war and the escalation that would entail the death of many millions. In nuclear deterrence, where the stakes are high […]

The commander of the US Strategic Command, General Anthony Cotton, correctly warns that the United States may not be able to deter Chinese aggression using the same economic leavers employed during the Cold War by Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush. Margaret Thatcher’s claim that “Reagan won the Cold War without having to fire […]

 The theory of self-deterrence has emerged as a pivotal factor in shaping the behavior of nuclear-armed states. At the heart of this concept lies the intricate interplay between reputational concerns, precedents of nuclear use, and the credibility of nuclear deterrence. When leaders are self-deterred from employing nuclear weapons due to the fear of tarnishing their […]

With the strategic environment getting more precarious every day, incorporating new methods of thinking about risk mitigation can aid the United States in better addressing the threat posed by Russia, China, and North Korea. Incorporating actuarial methods into American approaches to strategic risk assessment is one way to do that. Actuaries are risk-mitigation specialists. Most […]

Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel began a war responsible for the deaths of many thousands in both Israel and Gaza. The Israeli government and the Hamas controlled Ministry of Health report an estimated 26,000 deaths on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. While debate rages over the conduct of the war, there is […]

In 2019, Congress created the position of Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy (ASD Space Policy) to elevate space within the Office of the Secretary of Defense and provide strong civilian oversight within the Department of Defense (DoD) as part of the reorganization that included a new service and combatant command for space. While […]

In the wake of the recent drone attack on January 28, where Iranian proxies killed three American soldiers and injured more than 30, President Joe Biden finds himself at a crucial crossroads in handling relations with Iran. This brazen act of aggression demands a resolute and swift response. The lack of a clear red line […]

European Commissioner Thierry Breton recently recalled what former President Donald Trump told the president of the European Commission (EC), Ursula van der Leyen, back in 2020. Trump suggested that he was extremely skeptical about North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) commitment to European defense. As a result, it came as no surprise that Breton announced that […]

The 2023 Strategic Posture Commission rightfully called attention to US strategic force deficiencies and a renewed emphasis on nuclear deterrence. The security dilemma is not like it was between the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. It is worse. In a tripolar world of nuclear peers where the US faces simultaneous armed […]

At a 2002 workshop organized by the United States Air Force to examine surveillance and reconnaissance needs for a then-new War on Terrorism, one attendee proclaimed, “What we need is intergalactic, all-domain, comprehensive situational awareness across the past, present, and future.” While speaking tongue and cheek, it was hard to disagree with that sentiment. Who […]

In the realm of global security, imagine a contest not on the grassy fields of a stadium but on the vast chessboard of international relations. This is the Super Bowl of deterrence, a high-stakes game where the competitors are not athletes but nations wielding military and technological might. In this epic showdown, the United States […]

The current skirmish with Iran and its proxies is testing American power and risks exploding into a major war if deterrence of Iran is not restored. Americans must recognize that Iran remains undeterred and unafraid of American military and economic power. Iran is also confirming the benefits of opportunistic aggression in the eyes of America’s […]

Is the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) a national security organization? The answer matters greatly in the division of labor between government agencies, as well as how NASA should interpret national guidance. The United States’ current National Security Strategy states that an era of “strategic competition” exists, which the recent Joint Concept for Competing […]

The Arms Control Association (ACA) and the Physicists Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers are proposing the United States unilaterally cancel the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program, removing 60 percent of the United States’ nuclear delivery vehicles. They fear a president might launch America’s silo-based ICBMs during a crisis and perhaps even accidentally trigger a […]

With the recent news that the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program is expected to experience a Nunn-McCurdy breach, which means program costs are expected to increase by at least 15 percent, many in the arms control community are calling for termination of the program and the elimination of the ICBM leg of the nuclear […]

Nuclear weapons have long been considered a double-edged sword in international relations—capable of both preventing conflicts through deterrence and posing existential threats if mismanaged. In this delicate balance, two key elements emerge as critical for nuclear deterrence credibility and effectiveness: escalation dominance and the control of international narratives. This article explores the interconnectedness of these […]

In October 2023 the International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) of the US Department of State (DoS) issued the “Report on Deterrence in a World of Nuclear Multipolarity.” The ISAB report was overshadowed by the report from the bipartisan Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United State’s issuing their final report America’s Strategic Posture. […]

With any conflict over Taiwan certain to depend heavily on the US Navy, it is time for the Navy to reassess its nuclear capabilities so that it can not only meet the deterrence requirements of the twenty-first century but employ the right nuclear weapons in a future conflict. Currently, the Navy’s contribution to nuclear deterrence […]

The Biden Administration has suggested that India is the centerpiece of its Indo-Pacific strategy. As Siddharth Iyer, the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s director for South Asia policy said, “Our belief is that getting the US and India relationship right is not just necessary, it’s essential to achieving our strategy in the Indo-Pacific.” This […]

In the ever-evolving strategic environment, China’s rise stands out as a pivotal change in the twenty-first century. China’s nuclear breakout and aggression toward Taiwan lead to an important question: Is China’s trajectory a harmonious coexistence or a looming threat? Beyond the layers of its self-perception as the “Middle Kingdom” and its quest for global dominance, […]

The United States is acknowledged as the global leader in both military and commercial space. Today’s geopolitical landscape is multipolar due to the rise of China as a potential rival to American space dominance. While the US maintains strong alliances, China has few allies it can use to achieve its aims. Instead, China resorts to […]

The “Global Security Review 2023 Compendium” is a comprehensive collection of articles addressing key issues in global security. It includes analysis on topics like American strategic posture, space deterrence, challenges in the Asia-Pacific region, nuclear deterrence, and the implications of emerging threats like satellite cyber-attacks. Each article, authored by our experts, delves into current geopolitical […]

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s recent hospitalization and revelations that key Pentagon and White House leaders, including President Biden, were unaware of his “incapacitation” for five days is concerning. The reason for such concern should transcend political criticism. Indeed, the real concern regarding the secretary’s uninformed absence relates to the negative impact on America’s nuclear […]

In 2023, the Albanese Government released the public version of the independent Defence Strategic Review (DSR) along with the government’s response to the review. The DSR called for the Australian Defence Force (ADF) to have the capacity to defend Australia and its immediate region and to “deter through denial any adversary’s attempt to project power […]

Military planners in the US appear biased toward a scenario that allows for multiple moves in a game called “Defend Taiwan from a Chinese Invasion.” In this game, there is a tendency to focus on a drawn-out slog over a Chinese invasion of the island. Such a back-and-forth tit-for-tat contingency is in no one’s interest […]

The employment of nuclear weapons by adversaries of the United States is, logically, not only a possibility, but a likelihood. Americans want deterrence to hold. Decision-makers are obligated to seek ways to sustain stability without the employment of strategic weapons. Yet, malevolent powers are a fact and given the presence of nuclear weapons, it is […]

Central to the international order, which was created out of the destruction wrought in World War II, is deterrence. It is derived from the collective power found in economic, political, and military capability to cause restraint in the minds of bad actors who would otherwise engage in bad behavior. Today, international order is breaking down. […]

Although scholars readily acknowledge that the international order is under serious attack from Russia and China, they do not pay much attention to the task of detailing those attacks in the nuclear sphere. Yet doing so is essential because that dimension is vital to their strategy. Due to consideration of space, this essay focuses on […]

Although Congress has adjourned for the holidays, when it returns, its first order of business should be passage of a resolution to provide Ukraine the support it needs to win. Fears that Ukraine is turning into a “forever war” in which the Biden administration has no clear strategy should not delay congressional action on this […]

Beneficiaries of American extended deterrence seek reassurance through visible and tangible efforts. This default to only thinking about American action disregards important options to improve nuclear deterrence. There is a low cost self-help option for allies and partners that does not require new or more nuclear weapons. Every state under the United States’ nuclear umbrella […]

David Trachtenberg of the National Institute for Public Policy wrote in 2021 that the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and the resurgence of the Taliban have raised significant concerns about their impact on American credibility, deterrence, and alliances. European allies expressed disappointment and criticism, potentially straining the transatlantic relationship and undermining extended deterrent commitments. […]

The Washington Post editorial board’s November opinion, “A new nuclear arms race is here: How to slow it down,” may receive the cheers of the Beltway’s many nuclear disarmament organizations, but the assertion is both factually inaccurate and a misrepresentation of what is actually happening in the world. It would be a disservice to leave […]

Recently the European Union (EU) released its EU Space Strategy for Security and Defence. This document is centered on safeguarding space activities and enhancing the security of EU interests and capabilities in space through member-state cooperation. The document rightly recognizes growing threats against space assets, which enable modern civilization and warrant active protection and defense. […]

Americans are familiar with China’s rampant industrial espionage program, but they are often unfamiliar with US government–funded cooperation that serves a similar purpose for the Chinese—transferring sensitive intellectual property. This is why it is important that such collaboration receives scrutiny. Take the case of nano aquabots, an overlooked technology. Nano aquabots are a dual-use technology […]

The United States is not militarily prepared to deter conflict with China over Taiwan. Whilst American military power in the Asia-Pacific is formidable, the sheer logistical challenges of deterrence with conventional forces in a multipolar maritime theater fundamentally undermine the United States’ preparedness to fight and defeat a People’s Republic of China (PRC) assault on […]

In October of this year, the final report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States was released. It is a wake-up call and a national call to action. The report is urgent, reasonable, and sound, assessing emerging threats in the international security environment, the United States’ posture against those threats, […]

The Chinese nuclear buildup, according to the former Commander of US Strategic Command, Admiral Charles Richard, is both “breathtaking” and “accelerating.” It poses a new and unique danger to the US, requiring the nation to simultaneously deter two nuclear-armed peer adversaries. Detractors raise three challenges to the Admiral’s concerns. First, the Chinese buildup is not […]

On August 31, 1998, North Korea fired a Taepodong 1 missile into Japanese airspace, taking allies and adversaries by surprise. Fifteen years later, China emerged as an even more ominous concern for Japan’s security. Following the summer 1998 incident, it took another quarter of a century for Japan to emancipate itself from pacifist policies, revamp […]

On November 2, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a Russian Federal Assembly bill formally withdrawing Russia’s 2000 ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). This means now none of the three largest nuclear weapon powers are fully part of the treaty, although all three have signed and claim to observe the ban […]

The new Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States report unanimously concluded the United States is unprepared to face China and Russia as two nuclear-armed peer adversaries. The 12-member commission, evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, was co-chaired by Madelyn Creedon, a former Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) staff member and former […]

Deterrence, which is traditionally associated with nuclear weapons, is becoming increasingly unable to address emerging technologies that sit beyond the scope of conventional weapons capabilities. A proposed category of capabilities termed “inferential” anti-satellite (ASAT) are altering the cost-benefit calculus of deterrence based on their generally non-attributable nature, causing issues to arise with perceptions of deterrence […]

In the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) long quest to be a global economic leader, the communist nation has consistently argued for developing nation status at the Word Trade Organization (WTO), because China needs more assistance to reach the same status as the United States and the West. For the PRC’s domestic audience, however, the […]

China’s use of a salami-slicing strategy to gradually extend its influence in the South and East China Seas is proving challenging for the United States. One potential American countermeasure is to co-opt China’s strategy by “reversing the Salami.” With the dynamics of the East and South China Seas presenting a highly intricate geopolitical chessboard, fraught […]

To prove itself a formidable competitor in space, Russia is turning to space warfare. This includes anti-satellite tactics using cyber. Even in terrestrial cyber conflicts, Russia possesses the ability to engage in advanced denial-of-service, ransomware, and other types of malware attacks. While no single agency oversees Russian cyberattacks, the amount of personnel involved in these […]

A recent article in The Diplomat, “China’s Concerns About Nuclear Escalation and the Way Forward,” claims that “the survivability of China’s nuclear arsenal is actually under ever greater threat.” Citing the United States’ bantam ballistic missile defense capacity, permeating space-based surveillance, and robust non-nuclear offensive capabilities, the article tries to persuade readers that China’s smaller […]

In August 2023, the Department of the Air Force released its congressional report on Space Force strategy, which was directed by Congress as part of the National Defense Authorization Act of 2023. The requirement was due to Congress’ desire to “establish a comprehensive strategy for the Space Force” that would include space “control” capabilities as […]

Outer space is often described in strategic terms as the “high-ground” or a “contested-domain,” depending on the political environment and policy objectives. The application of deterrence, most often discussed in a nuclear context, ebbed and flowed over the past six decades with successive changes in policy. It is often over-thought and complicated to support academic […]

The Department of Defense’s (DoD) Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, 2023 Annual Report to Congress was released on October 19, 2023. The threats discussed should be a wake-up call for Americans. The report, which is an annual requirement mandated by Section 1202 of the 2000 National Defense Authorization Act, provides […]

Reports from Palau suggest the mood in government is disappointing. Why? The United States Congress missed the September 30, 2023, deadline to confirm the funding of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), the Marshall Islands, and Palau. These three island states are in the northern Pacific and have control over the air, sea, and land […]

Arms control advocates often propose a minimal deterrence strategy as a first step toward the abolition of nuclear weapons. Closely connected to a “no first use” policy, much of such thinking advocating these two positions flows from a mistaken view that nuclear weapons are not useful in deterring adversaries, irrelevant to new threats, and a […]

Living in Washington, DC, since 2000, they are like many residents of the nation’s capital—immigrants from another country. Tian Tian and Mei Xiang hail from Sichuan, China. Their cub, Xiao Qi Ji “Little Miracle,” was born during the pandemic. Sadly, the family will return to China by mid-November, but not for any reason you might […]

With the release of the National Security Strategy (NSS), National Defense Strategy (NDS), and Nuclear Posture Review(NPR) in October 2022, we now have enough time and distance from their publication to evaluate the Biden administration’s long-awaited look at its view toward nuclear weapons and the nation’s two primary threats Russia and China. With Russia waiting […]