In August 2024, Ukraine launched a significant incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, advancing up to 30 kilometers and gaining control of 1,200 square kilometers and 93 villages. Analysts suggest the offensive aims to pull Russian forces away from the eastern front lines and secure leverage for potential peace talks. However, Russia continues to make gains […]

In an era where political pundits are quick to sound alarms about the impending decline of American global leadership, the reality paints a more optimistic picture. While the rise of China, the resurgence of Russia, and the saber-rattling of North Korea and Iran led some to predict a seismic shift in world power, a closer […]

The development of hypersonic technology is poised to redefine the landscape of military airpower. Hypersonic vehicles, capable of reaching speeds greater than Mach 5, offer unprecedented speed and agility, making them a game-changer in modern warfare. This article delves into the advancements, challenges, and strategic implications of hypersonic technology, highlighting how it is set to […]

This report provides an in-depth look at recent developments in global defense, with a particular focus on North Korea’s and Russia’s military actions and the United States’ strategic response. Readers will find insights into North Korea’s latest ICBM test and its increased alignment with Russia, including deploying troops to support Russia in Ukraine. The report […]

Space is an operational domain that is highly contested and in a crisis could quickly become a warfighting environment. Space is “militarized” through the deployment of satellites to support a range of terrestrial military tasks. Both the Soviet Union and the United States developed anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon technologies during the Cold War, yet it is […]

Nuclear devices in space have the potential to prove indispensable tools, ideal for protecting the planet from asteroid impacts. They are, however, currently forbidden, unless the 1967 Outer Space Treaty is properly amended. This is because they are viewed as destructive weapons of war. Recent scientific research at Sandia National Laboratories proves that carefully aimed […]

As Americans enter an era of unprecedented technological innovation and global instability, the question of how to secure the nation’s future looms large. While discussions around deterrence often focus on military strategies, weapons modernization, and the shifting balance of power, there is an economic dimension to national security that is largely overlooked. Without proper fiscal […]

ICBM EAR Summary for the Week of October 25th, 2024 Key Essays: Extended Deterrence and No First Use Policy: The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Nihon Hidankyo, emphasizing nuclear abolition. The U.S. policy of extended deterrence involves the potential use of nuclear weapons in response to conventional, biological, or chemical attacks.​ The Biden administration […]

For more than 70 years, the world has avoided nuclear war. However, the nuclear order is changing dramatically. Pakistan’s growing nuclear capabilities and ties to terrorist groups present an especially dangerous combination that the United States cannot afford to overlook. It is the world’s fastest-growing nuclear state—with an estimated 170 nuclear weapons. Its military and intelligence service […]

As the media ponders how Israel will respond to Iranian missile attack, many remain awestruck by the September 17, 2024, Israeli pager attack and subsequent walkie-talkie detonations that killed or injured Lebanon-based Hezbollah fighters. While the legality of such an attack is debatable, some are considering this a next step in using technology in warfare. […]

In this conversation, Christopher Stone and Ilan Berman discuss the potential of Starlink, the satellite internet service by SpaceX, to promote informational freedom in regions under authoritarian control. Berman emphasizes the importance of leveraging technology for humanitarian efforts and the empowerment of dissidents, particularly in countries like Iran. The discussion also touches on China’s response […]

All eyes are on Hezbollah as the Israel-Palestinian conflict threatens the stability of Lebanon. Undoubtedly, war with the Iranian-backed militant group will cause widespread damage and destruction. Still, as the world watches the Middle East with bated breath, the influence of Hezbollah in Latin America continues to grow largely unchecked. Allowing terrorist organizations to operate […]

Adam, Curtis, and Jim are joined by Jonathan Cefalu, the founder of Preamble. Mr. Cefalu shares insights on enhancing artificial intelligence (AI) trust, specifically in nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) systems. See his recently published article here.

Standoff warfare has emerged as a pivotal approach in modern warfare. By keeping forces beyond the reach of adversaries and utilizing long-range offensive capabilities, nations aim to maintain a tactical advantage while minimizing risk to personnel and equipment. This article delves into the pros and cons of standoff warfare and examines its potential as a […]

As the war in Ukraine rages on, more than two years since it began, many observers are trying to determine who is winning and who will win in the end. There is no easy answer as analysists have differing criteria upon which they base their assessments. This leaves ample room for further assessment. Russia’s Strategic […]

In this episode, Curtis and Jim discuss the National Nuclear Security Administration’s recent achievement of producing the first plutonium pit in 35 years. They delve into the complex process of their production, the challenges faced in ramping up production to meet future demands, and speculations regarding a recent seismic event in Iran.

In September 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled a significant shift in Russia’s nuclear posture. He indicated that any conventional attack on Russian soil, particularly with the backing of a nuclear power like the United States or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), could be treated as justification for a nuclear response. These efforts at […]

Policymakers in the West often fail to take a holistic view of security. China and Russia are doing just that as they prosecute warfare below the threshold of overt conventional fighting. This allows China and Russia to actively degrade the security of the United States and the European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization […]

As the 2024 presidential election looms, the future of American national security policy, particularly its nuclear posture, is under scrutiny. Whether Donald Trump reclaims the White House or Vice President Kamala Harris steps into the Oval Office, one issue should remain constant: the United States must unambiguously reject a nuclear no-first-use policy. Regardless of the […]

The Space Defense and Security Summit​, that took place in parallel to the September 2024 World Space Business Week conference in Paris, announced positive developments for European space defense. France has the second largest defense export industry in the world and is the fourth-largest military space spender—albeit far behind the US, China, and Russia. The country, emphasizing […]

The complex landscape of artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly relevant across all fields and nations. Since AI affects every state, its benefits and drawbacks must be addressed collectively. The recent passage of the Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence by the Council of Europe marks a significant turning point in the quest for effective and long-lasting […]

Afghanistan, under Taliban control, is a powder keg ready to erupt with consequences that will ripple throughout the region and the world. The driving forces of this impending disaster are deeply rooted in the Taliban’s ideological, strategic, and operational maneuvers, which intensified after the American exit. The brainwashing of youths, monopoly over illicit drug production, […]

The United States is by far the largest contributor to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) operations. According to NATO estimates published in June 2024, the United States will spend $967.7 billion on defense in 2024, roughly 10 times as much as Germany, the second-largest spending country, with $97.7 billion. Total NATO military expenditures for 2024 are estimated at $1.474.4 […]

America waged a Cold War against a nuclear-armed Marxist-Leninist state for four decades. The US government took a number of civil defense measures to protect the American people. These included: the Eisenhower interstate system, duck and cover drills, public fallout shelters, and periodic tests of the Emergency Broadcasting System. Then, as now, these measures caused […]

On a 2015 official visit to the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) National University of Defense Technology in Changsha, China, I (Adam) was talking with a senior PLA colonel about Chinese and American views on nuclear deterrence. The colonel, who knew I specialized in China’s nuclear weapons program, also knew that I was in charge of […]

The United States’ and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) continued support for Ukraine’s valiant fight to repel a Russian invasion may, ultimately, depending on the state of the conflict, lead Russia to employ one or a small number of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons. A conflict between the United States and China, over Taiwan, could […]

The presidential campaign is heading into its climactic final months. Pundits and politicians are inevitably drawing analogies between present and past events in domestic politics and foreign policy. This year, outbreaks of antisemitism across American college campuses, including at the most elite private colleges and universities, remind commentators of the turbulent year 1968. That year […]

Imagine a scene. It is the Indian military command center on the night of May 28, 2028. A high-ranking Indian military officer sends a message to a subordinate commander; Pakistan has initiated a preemptive strike. Prepare for a retaliatory strike. This is not a drill. Missile flight time between both India and Pakistan is a […]

At the annual convention of the National Guard Association of the United States (NGAUS), former President Donald Trump made headlines by stating his support for NGAUS’ position on a Space National Guard. He said there should be one and that it should be the “primary combat reserve of the US Space Force.” While this is […]

In March 2024, India conducted a test of its multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) capability by placing miniaturized warheads onto its Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which has a range of over 7,000 kilometers. MIRVs were initially developed to enhance nuclear deterrence capabilities by allowing a single ballistic missile to carry multiple warheads, but […]

As the November presidential election approaches, the prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency raises important questions about the future of American nuclear deterrence. Trump’s first term was marked by a significant focus on nuclear weapons modernization and a distinct approach to nuclear deterrence that contrasted sharply with his predecessor. Understanding what nuclear deterrence could […]

Hostile states actors are knocking on every closed door in Europe in an effort to disrupt normal management of societies and their governments. State institutions, including intelligence agencies, cybersecurity organizations, and policing agencies are exhausted in their efforts at pushing back against non-native and unknown forces. Those European intelligence agencies tasked with countering malicious cyber […]

To date, both presidential campaigns have mostly evaded any serious discussion of the real issues challenging the United States. When they have discussed them, they have interspersed potentially serious ideas with dismaying, if not shocking, examples of economic illiteracy. Vice President Kamala Harris certainly grasps the fact that voters respond to promise that their cost […]

Nordic countries formed the Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO) as a cooperative security effort. Among several defense coordination initiatives, one is related to European airspace when faced with threats from Russia. A sub-regional grouping of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden signed a Declaration of Cooperation on Cross-Border Airspace. This declaration ensures that all North Atlantic […]

This article, “The Evolving Context for Deterrence” by Prof. Stephen J. Cimbala and Dr. Adam Lowther was published in the Joint Airpower Competency Center journal, viewpoints edition 38.  Its main discussion centers on how NATO faces significant and evolving challenges in maintaining effective deterrence in the face of modern geopolitical and technological developments. The authors […]

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said about the Arctic Circle, “It has been absolutely clear for everyone for a long time that this is our territory.” He added, “This is our land and our waters.” Russia acts on those assertions today as rising sea temperatures strengthen its de facto economic and military control over the […]

Joe Cirincione is a prolific commentator on nuclear issues with a long track record of advocating for nuclear arms reductions and disarmament. His publications play an important role in shaping the thinking of Americans. However, his recent article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, “Trump has a Strategic Plan for the Country: Gearing up […]

As Americans weigh their vote for president in November’s election, the implications of a Kamala Harris presidency for nuclear deterrence and foreign policy warrant careful consideration. Harris, with seven years of foreign policy experience as a vice president and senator, promises both continuity and evolution in America’s approach to nuclear deterrence. Her leadership might balance […]

With the recent anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it is time to reflect on the role of nuclear weapons in national security. These weapons are far more than bigger bombs. As one eyewitness in Hiroshima described it, “surroundings turned blindingly white, like a million camera flashes going off at once.” The […]

Following European Parliament elections in June, French president, Emanuel Macron, abruptly dissolved his own parliament and held elections that left him without a majority. In the United Kingdom (UK), Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a majority in parliament, making Starmer the first Labour prime minister in 14 years. Former German Defense Minister, Ursula von der […]

In an era marked by complex security challenges, the traditional notions of deterrence are being tested in new ways. Adversaries such as China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia, lacking the conventional capability for direct confrontation, are increasingly turning to subtle grey zone tactics to undermine American deterrence. Central to their strategy is the manipulation of […]

Strategic stability as it was once known is on life support. For those unfamiliar with the concept, strategic stability is a condition of strategic power balance that enables deterrence to function more effectively. The obvious goal of deterrence is conflict prevention and the attendant risks of regional and global nuclear escalation. For over 75 years […]

At the occasion of the July 2024 Saint Petersburg Marine National Celebration—Russia’s Grand Naval Day Parade—Russian president Vladimir Putin expressed concerns over the US and Germany’s plans to deploy American intermediate-range missile systems on German territory. Putin warned that Russia would no longer be bound by its unilateral moratorium on deploying medium- and short-range strike […]

The Russian presence in Africa significantly expanded in recent years, especially following the restructuring of the Wagner Group, now renamed Africa Corps. The coups that took place in several African nations over the past two years welcomed the Russian presence. In the previous article, we presented an overview of such developments. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death in […]

Almost eight decades ago today, on August 6, 1945, the world entered the nuclear era when an American B-29 Superfortress bomber dropped an atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima. The first use of an atomic weapon set into motion the events that led to Japan’s surrender—without the large loss of American life. The […]

Campaign rhetoric aside, the next president and America’s allies around the globe already face a multi-lateral nuclear alliance directed against them. Worse yet, that alliance is on track to become stronger and with a larger collective nuclear arsenal. This autocratic alliance includes China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Its members are already acting globally, and […]

Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) involves collecting, analyzing, and utilizing information from publicly available sources to inform decision-making within the intelligence community. It provides critical insights without the need for clandestine operations, making it a cost-effective and legally compliant method of gathering intelligence. The recent surge in OSINT intake is driven by the exponential growth of digital […]

The American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) new report, Building an Enduring Advantage in the Third Space Age, is a well-written report, authored by the well-known and respected Todd Harrison. Found in its pages are several assessments and recommendations on areas such as space launch rates and commercial expansion of the overall satellite constellation, as well as […]

A concerning trend in Africa is developing. Political instability is increasing. This trend is reflected in military coups that occurred in African countries between 2020 and 2024. For example, Presidential Guard Commander, General Abdourahamane Tiani, led a coup in July 2023 to overthrow Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum. Two coups transpired in Burkina Faso within the […]

In the evolving strategic environment, where adversaries like China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia are expanding their nuclear capabilities, the United States must alter its nuclear strategy to match the increased threat facing the nation. The pages that follow propose a strategy of “dynamic parity” as a solution for maintaining balance and protecting the American […]

The West is behind in rebuilding the infrastructure needed to meet the emerging threats posed by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. The re-emergence of great-power competition requires an intense effort to rebuild atrophied capabilities. The Strategic Posture Review made the case for urgent investment in modernized strategic forces including a less vulnerable road-mobile Sentinel […]

Andrew Erickson and Joel Wuthnow’s article, “Why Islands Still Matter in Asia,” discusses the views of Major General Karl Ernst Haushofer, Germany’s military attaché to Japan from 1908 to 1910. They write that he regarded the “offshore island arcs of the Indo-Pacific realm as important geopolitical features providing a useful protective veil sheltering continental powers […]

America’s Cold Warrior is a biography of Paul Nitze’s professional life. For those not deeply steeped in this man’s career, he was a “stalwart of the arms control community” and continuously involved in US foreign policy from the beginning of the Cold War until his death in 2004—beginning with the Truman administration and ending five […]

When Americans think of aircraft carriers, they think of projection of force across the seas, particularly in regions where the United States does not have access to airfields. Many consider having them the mark of a superpower. There is some debate, however, as to their continued utility in modern times. They are costly to build, […]

China’s foreign ministry continues to call for the creation and ratification of a no first use treaty for the world’s nuclear weapons states. However, American officials rightfully question the motives of this push as intelligence estimates point to the exponential growth of the Chinese arsenal. The changing features of China’s strategic forces show a nation […]

The US Space Force, if judged by inflation-adjusted funding in the fiscal year (FY) 2024 and 2025 budgets, is showing signs of decline. The Biden administration’s FY 2025 request of $29.6 billion, makes up about 3.5 percent of the Department of Defense’s total budget request. Oddly, the FY 2025 request is the first in which […]

The four years from 2025 promise to be a very difficult time for nuclear deterrence if the trends of the past decade and one-half since the completion of the New START treaty continue. As emphasized by the Nuclear Posture Review at the time, growing cooperation on nuclear matters between the US, China and Russia was […]

This book is not a stale history of an insignificant person. It is a well written, fascinating story centered around a very influential man. It just happens that the man’s name is unknown to most, even if his acts are not. Paul Nitze is a real-life Forrest Gump, albeit a very serious and more reliable […]

With the advent of American efforts to revitalize the nation’s nuclear arsenal, it seems appropriate to review the challenges of the first and most ambitious nuclear weapons program, the Manhattan Project. Current modernization efforts include new intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear bombers, ballistic missile submarines, nuclear warheads, and nuclear production facilities. Comparing and contrasting these programs […]

Following the Cold War, there was much intellectual confusion concerning nuclear weapons, nuclear strategy, and why nuclear weapons exist. After the end of the Cold War, people around the world thought that it was the end of great-power competition; there would be no more threat of major conventional or nuclear war between great powers. The […]

American history is imbued with a long-standing skepticism of intervention and long-term commitments that began with George Washington’s farewell address. While there is wisdom in this view, it is even worse to have an inconsistent and dysfunctional relationship with other nations. It is unfortunate but true that the United States has abandoned allies over the […]

ICBM EAR The latest ICBM EAR Report provides updates from USAF Global Strike command ’s on the ICBM Bomber Nuclear Programs, senior officials quotes, Hill developments and international strategic developments. A must read for all National Security professionals. Summary: The US Congress and Administration are now grappling with how to improve US deterrence in the […]

On February 22, 2024, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York updated its list of labor outcomes by major for college graduates. Surprisingly, the data revealed that aerospace engineering is the fourth most unemployed college major, beaten only by fine arts, liberal arts, and art history. Conventional thinking argues that engineering jobs are some of […]

As the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture argued in its October 2023 report, the United States neglected to sustain political legitimacy through a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape by allowing the nation’s nuclear deterrent to degrade over the past three decades, despite the clear resurgence of Russia, China, and North Korea. Integrated deterrence, a cornerstone […]

The European dream of peace and security for all of Europe is within reach with a new proposed European security architecture. It is an architecture that corrects an ongoing and prevailing North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) malady. While NATO was originally based on a model of shared responsibility, it has morphed into an alliance where […]

The United States Air Force (USAF) is expanding the integration of stealth technology beyond fighters and bombers to encompass aerial refueling. Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works proposed design for the Next-Generation Air-Refueling System (NGAS), the KC-Z, showcases this critical evolution as it addresses a significant vulnerability—the exposure of low-observable aircraft during mid-air refueling. By incorporating stealth, […]

Differences in birth rates between countries can affect their demographics, with dire implications for national security. These differences can shift states’ relative economic and military power. They can also alter comparative standards of living and lead to domestic unrest. In a worst case, demographic trends in the wrong direction, between blocs that oppose one another […]

Recent action by the United States and like-minded nations to defend Israel from an unprecedented Iranian airstrike demonstrates how the United States and NATO can defend their allies and partners against similar air threats. With a 99 percent success rate in downing Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and long-range attack drones, this should serve as […]

During the Cold War, strategists used applied math for insights into nuclear strategy. Their techniques included game theory, macroeconomics, and systems analysis. These models, brilliant as their creators were, had flaws. They led to equations that could be studied in fascinating detail, yielding great academic “publish or perish” rewards and even some Nobel Prizes, but […]

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) into stealth and radar technologies represents a key element of the race to the top of defense technologies currently taking place. These offensive and defensive capabilities are constantly evolving with AI/ML serving as the next step in their evolution. Integrating AI/ML into low-observable technology presents […]

The United States government finds itself in an unprecedented financial situation. Over the next 12 months, the amount of public debt held by the federal government will exceed the size of the nation’s economy. As a fraction of gross domestic product (GDP), debt has grown to a size not seen since the end of World […]

In the early hours of March 26, 2024, the MV Dali, carrying over 4,000 containers, suffered a complete loss of power and struck a support pillar of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. This collapsed the bridge and blocked access to the Patapsco River and the 17 terminals in Baltimore Harbor. The incident caused disruptions for […]

Beyond halting Russia, American political and military support for Ukraine plays a crucial role in preventing China from escalating its aggression against Western democracies. The recent approval of a supplemental aid package by the US Congress and President Joe Biden represents a significant stride in fortifying Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression. However, this assistance primarily […]

In the Middle East, the necessity for an anti-Iran alliance is apparent. Iran’s aggressive foreign policy, support for terrorism, and pursuit of nuclear capabilities continue to pose a significant threat to regional stability and global security. As a result, the formation of a united front comprising key Middle Eastern nations and the West, led by […]

Iran is now “closer than ever” to having nuclear weapons, which should “alarm” every American. Given Iran’s professed genocidal objectives toward Israel, Tehran’s terrorism-sponsoring regime should never be allowed to get nuclear arms. A comparison of recommendations for multilateral diplomacy and sanctions written in 2007 and 2023 offer no evidence of success. Experts now say […]

The United States stands at a critical juncture. As tensions rise and threats from Russia, China, North Korea and Iran evolve, it is paramount that the nation ensure it possess the strength needed to defend against adversary aggression. Central to this effort is the need to foster competition in key areas of the defense industrial […]

The intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and strategic intelligence operations represents a pivotal frontier in the security landscape. Rapid advancements in AI, machine learning (ML), and data analytics will revolutionize the capabilities of intelligence agencies worldwide, offering unprecedented opportunities for enhanced situational awareness, predictive analysis, and decision-making support. From counterterrorism efforts to geopolitical forecasting, […]

The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) is one of the main foreign policy initiatives of Azerbaijan. In his swearing-in ceremony in February 2024 Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, described the OTS as the main international organization for Azerbaijan and announced that Baku’s future foreign policy goal would be focused on making the OTS one of the […]

On February 28, 2024, the Chamber of Industry and Commerce of Tokyo, which is also Japan’s largest start-up hub, held a Japan Air Self-Defense Force–sponsored online event, “Space Security and Business: International Collaboration and Private Sector Cooperation Driving Space Security and Business Prospects.” The Japanese government first announced its Space Security Initiative in June 2023. […]

The Albanese government’s 2024 National Defence Strategy (NDS), and its accompanying Integrated Investment Program (IIP), both released on April 17, represent the beginning of a biennial process of defense policy development called for in the 2023 Defence Strategic Review (DSR) and represent official Australian defense policy. All three documents note the importance of the space […]

The September 11, 2001, terrorist attack on the United States was a watershed moment that changed the focus of American national defense. In 2021, Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs released a report estimating international terrorism cost at $8 trillion in resources and over 900,000 lives. Decades of prioritizing terrorism, while neglecting […]

Since the establishment of the United States Space Force in 2019, many in the federal defense establishment have aggressively fought to prevent the establishment of the Space National Guard. The reasons are numerous. In 2020 there was a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report that claimed a Space National Guard component would be enormously expensive and […]

It is time to restation nuclear weapons in South Korea. The United States must modernize extended deterrence and strengthen the assurance of allies across the Indo-Pacific region. While the United States and South Korea previously agreed to station weapons from 1958 until the end of 1991, that agreement was part of an earlier nuclear posture […]

Introduction        Two years have passed since the United States announced a unilateral ban on the testing of destructive anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. The ban was announced on April 12, 2022, and hailed as a first step towards establishing a norms of responsible behavior to further the ideal of sustainability in outer space. Several states, including many […]

As the war in Ukraine grinds on with mounting casualties on both sides, Americans are debating whether to continue funding Kyiv’s war effort. Ukraine, however, faces two far greater long-term challenges to its existence as a nation-state. These are serious demographic declines—that will leave it with a shrinking and aging population—and the huge cost of […]

In an era marked by escalating tensions, the concept of nuclear deterrence still holds profound significance and elicits multifaceted discussion and debate. One proposition in the defense community is the reintroduction of a non-strategic nuclear capability within the United States Navy, by way of the sea-launched cruise missile-nuclear (SLCM-N). What is missing in the debate […]

For America to pragmatically solve the nuclear strategy three body problem—simultaneously deterring Russia, China, and North Korea—the United States must compensate for three characteristics of the international system: realpolitik, fake news, and sociopathic dictators. These, unfortunately for global peacekeeping, interact in a feedback loop, which forms a deadly three-player game of its own. In game […]

The recent allocation of $409 million in funding by the United States Air Force (USAF) to revitalize an airfield on the island of Tinian signifies a definitive long-term investment and commitment to American deterrence throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The history of the United States military’s affiliation with Tinian is closely tied to the island’s strategic […]

In August 2002, an Iranian opposition group, Mujahideen e-Khalq, held a conference warning the West that the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) was building nuclear facilities in two Iranian cities, Natanz and Arak. Although the news took Western decision-makers, or at least the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), by surprise, the British-American nuclear strategist, Colin […]

There are at least five compelling reasons for supporting continued American efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear arms. This is despite the aggressive nuclear buildup of Russia and China. First, there is concern that rogue states and terrorist groups with nuclear weapons would seek to bring on the very Armageddon deterrence is designed to […]

At the core of American deterrence is the question of right-sizing the arsenal. Given the growing arsenals of China, North Korea, and Russia, there is ample reason to question whether the United States has the right size and type of nuclear weapons. The issue has many facets and is the subject of active research and […]

When the United States withdrew its nuclear forces from the Korean Peninsula in 1991, it could not have known how the strategic environment would change over the next three decades. Today, alternative strategies to current nuclear weapons policy are needed. Understanding the fluid nature of the nuclear threat to South Korea from the north and […]

The topic of rebuilding a European nuclear deterrent in a world of finite American resources was the topic discussed by Max Hoell in one of Peter Huessy’s recent online seminars. The discussion touched on the evolving challenges to American extended deterrence in Europe amidst growing nuclear capabilities and assertiveness from China, North Korea, Russia, and, […]

Advocates of nuclear abolition wish humanity could live in a world without nuclear weapons. However, results of such a policy could be catastrophic. Bad actors, for example, would likely cheat on such a ban. Russia, for example, has a long track record of cheating on international agreements. As with all law, it is only the […]

In a recent Foreign Affairs article, Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates writes, The United States now confronts graver threats to its security than it has in decades, perhaps ever. Never has it faced four allied antagonists at the same time—Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran—whose collective nuclear arsenal could within a few years be […]

Annie Jacobsen’s new book, Nuclear War: A Scenario, is receiving rave reviews. It portrays a scenario in which a limited North Korean nuclear strike on the United States spirals into global thermonuclear war between the United States and Russia, ultimately killing a significant portion of the world’s population. For Jacobsen, who treats her fictional scenario […]

The post–Cold War period’s absence of nuclear competition led the American military to believe that the only way to win a nuclear war was to never fight one. This belief is challenged by Russia and China who do not share that view. For both nations, nuclear weapons are tools that can affect the outcome of battle and do […]

The Cheyenne Mountain Complex is a military installation located in Colorado and designed to provide command-and-control functions for the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and the United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM). In the hypothetical event that Russia launched a surprise intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) nuclear attack on this base, employing a Russian SS-27 800-kiloton […]

On March 20, 2024, the House Armed Services Committee hosted a hearing on military posture and challenges in the Indo-Pacific. Assistant Secretary of Defense, Ely Ratner, testified that “China continues to present the most comprehensive and serious challenge to the United States’ national security.” He added, “That’s because China remains the only country with the […]

In testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee on March 1, 2024, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director, Christopher Wray, confirmed a wide array of national security threats are coming across America’s border. These threats include violent criminal gangs, prison gangs, human trafficking, and illicit drugs. Director Wray also stated, “The FBI alone seized enough fentanyl […]