Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman reportedly informed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas that he must support the Israeli-Palestinian peace deal put forth by the Trump administration or resign.

According to Israeli media broadcasts, Abbas was given the ultimatum after he was summoned to Riyadh in October 2017 for a meeting with Bin Salman days after Senior U.S. Presidential Advisor Jared Kushner made an unannounced visit to the Saudi capital to meet the young crown prince.

Riyadh had offered to normalize relations with Israel in 2002 on the condition that it agreed to the two-state formula, which more and more Israeli’s, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have rejected.

While the details of any peace deal remain unclear, there is growing concern among Palestinians about Bin Salman’s readiness to support a U.S. president described as the most overtly pro-Israel president in years.

The Trump administration, at the time, was reportedly drafting a deal allegedly arranged by Jared Kushner, himself a staunch advocate of Israel. Kushner has given money to Israeli settlement charities, and his family is reportedly friendly with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israeli media reports also stated that Abbas was directed to prevent increased rapprochement with Hamas—an ultimatum that could jeopardize the reconciliation process between the two rival Palestinian factions.

On the surface, the warning given by Bin Salman seems to be identical to the one made by Netanyahu who is strongly opposed to the Palestinian unity government.

While Abbas has disputed the claims made on Israeli news Channel 10, details of the meeting seem to be in line with the Saudi, UAE, Israeli and U.S. vision for the region agreed before Trump’s inauguration.

Since the Trump administration has taken power, the U.S. has backed the unpredictable Crown Prince and seems to be endorsing a regional plan that will see full U.S. support for the Gulf monarchies, revisions to the Iran nuclear deal, and a new Israel-Palestine peace plan.

The Saudis appear to be entirely behind this agreement whose blueprint is being drawn up by senior members of the Trump administration.

Since his election, Trump has gone on to describe Saudi Arabia as a “magnificent country” while taking the unprecedented step of visiting the Gulf state in his first official visit, having condemned the rulers during his election campaign. Trump also struck a multibillion-dollar deal with the Saudi royals in May.

Trump’s fondness for the Saudi’s saw him backing the anti-Qatar media campaign directed by the Saudi and Emirati governments and the November announcement that he was decertifying the Iran nuclear accord.

When Saudi Arabia arrested scores of princes and businessmen in an “anti-corruption” purge, Trump tweeted his support for the move.

Saudi Arabia Pressured Palestinian Authority to Accept Saudi-backed Israel-Palestine Peace Deal was originally published on Global Security Review.

Netanyahu delivered the announcement to reporters accompanying him on an official visit to India, saying that his statement was based on a “solid assessment.” Netanyahu’s statement follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the Israeli capital in December 2017.

“There are three things happening in the U.S. that never happened before; one is moving the U.S. embassy. My solid assessment is that it will go much faster than you think: within a year from now,” the Prime Minister said before praising the United States’ increasingly aggressive position on Iran along with the Trump Administration’s announcement that the U.S. would be withholding approximately $65 million in aid funding to the United Nations Palestinian Refugee Agency (UNRWA).

The UN discouraged the Trump Administration from cutting to aid to UNRWA. Before the official announcement that the U.S. would withhold aid, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced his concern, due to the agency being “an important factor of stability.”

Israel has been quietly lobbying the Trump Administration to maintain aid funding to the Palestinian Authority and agencies like UNRWA, as Israel would be left to fill the financial gaps created by a cut in U.S. aid funding.

U.S. Embassy move to Jerusalem: An accelerated timeline?

Initially, the U.S. stated that the embassy would not relocate during President Trump’s first term in office, as it would take time to construct a physical embassy in Jerusalem. However, Netanyahu’s announcement is in direct contradiction to statements by U.S. officials, indicating that the relocation may be expedited.

Much of the international community has condemned the recognition of Jerusalem as counter-productive to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, with some states in the Middle East accusing the U.S. of having an inherent bias towards Israel.

The UN General Assembly passed a non-binding resolution condemning the move while reaffirming a commitment to a two-state solution. In such an outcome, East Jerusalem would be the State of Palestine’s capital.

U.S. Embassy in Israel will move to Jerusalem in 2018, says Netanyahu was originally published on Global Security Review.

A Saudi-backed proposal for a peace plan between Israelis and Palestinians would see the town of Abu Dis as the future capital of Palestine—instead of East Jerusalem. The proposed initiative would give the Palestinian Authority only limited sovereignty over Palestinian territory which has stirred widespread anger in the region.

The New York Times reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman presented the proposal during Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ visit to Riyadh last month. It was during that visit that Bin Salman reportedly gave an ultimatum to Abbas that he was to either accept the proposed peace plan or resign. Activists are responding to the Saudi proposal on Twitter using the hashtag #JerusalemIsOurCapital.

Abu Dis is a Palestinian town located to the east of East Jerusalem, which is occupied and administered by Israel. Situated within Area B, Abu Dis is currently administered by both Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Palestinians Would Have Partial Sovereignty Over a Non-Contiguous State

Under the Saudi-proposed peace plan, the Palestinians would have partial sovereignty over a non-contiguous state located in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The majority of Israeli settlements in the West Bank would remain. The Palestinian diaspora—Palestinian refugees and their descendants living in other countries—would not receive the right of return to Israel. Saudi Arabia reportedly gave Abbas two months to respond to the offer.

US President Donald Trump has recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and has begun the process of relocation the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a decision that lies in contrast to several decades of U.S. policy in the Middle East and risks fuelling violence across the region. Regional leaders like Turkey’s President Erdogan and Jordan’s King Abdullah have publicly criticized the decision but were careful not to condemn the U.S. President’s decision too forcefully.

Palestinians Would Get Limited Sovereignty in Saudi-Proposed Peace Plan was originally published on Global Security Review.

“Today, we finally acknowledge the obvious: that Jerusalem is Israel’s capital,” said President Donald J. Trump in a speech announcing his intention to construct a U.S. embassy there, reversing U.S. policy that dates back to President Harry Truman.

Israel considers the “complete and united Jerusalem” its capital, but Palestinians claim East Jerusalem for the capital of their future state. Trump is following through on a campaign promise that was a priority of some American evangelical and Jewish groups, but risks jettisoning a presidential initiative to establish Israeli-Palestinian peace, what he has previously called “the ultimate deal.” More immediately, the backlash against the move will likely include civil disobedience, and possibly violent protest, in Jerusalem and the Palestinian Territories. Protests could extend to Muslim-majority countries in the region, and the United States and Israel will face complications in their diplomacy the world over.

What is the international status of Jerusalem?

The walled Old City of Jerusalem, at just one square kilometer, is home to sites that are among the holiest in Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Because of its unique cultural and religious significance, the UN General Assembly set aside Jerusalem to be a corpus separatum, or separated body, under UN trusteeship when it voted in 1947 to divide the British mandate of Palestine into two states, an Arab one and a Jewish one.

That position remained the international consensus even after the partition plan itself was preempted by Israel’s declaration of independence in 1948 and the subsequent invasion by Arab powers. An armistice the following year divided the mandate along what has become known as the Green Line, which cuts through the middle of Jerusalem. Israel established its seat of government in the western half of the city, while, across a no man’s land lined with barbed wire, Jordan took control of the city’s eastern half, including the Old City.

Israel captured East Jerusalem in 1967 and subsequently annexed it, redrawing its municipal borders to include surrounding Arab villages. In 1980, Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, designated the united city as Israel’s capital. By contrast, the West Bank, also captured in 1967, was not annexed; it remains under military occupation and Palestinians have partial self-government there, through the Palestinian Authority (PA).While Israel controls the city, the Oslo Accords, signed by Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in 1993, stipulated that Jerusalem’s disposition would only be decided on in permanent-status negotiations between the parties. Other major issues under negotiation concern refugees’ right of return, security arrangements, borders, and mutual recognition.

Why is the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv?

The United States, like all countries that have relations with Israel, has kept its embassy in Tel Aviv so as not to preempt such an agreement between the parties. In so doing, the United States has claimed to be a neutral mediator. (In practice, the peace process has long been on hold.)

A 1995 U.S. law [PDF] requires the relocation of the embassy to Jerusalem, but allows for presidents to waive the requirement in six-month intervals “to protect the national security interests of the United States.” Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama issued waivers since then. Trump did so, too, on June 1, 2017, and again with this announcement.

What is the case for moving the U.S. embassy?

American and Israeli proponents of an embassy move say there is no national security imperative requiring such a waiver. U.S. diplomatic representation to Israel ought to be based at the country’s seat of government, particularly since the ambassador and embassy staff frequently conduct business there. What’s more, they argue, the United States almost universally recognizes whatever capital a country chooses for itself, and Israel should be no exception. Further, the diplomatic consequences of such a move can be contained by locating the embassy in West Jerusalem. That is presumed to remain a part of Israel under any plausible negotiated settlement, so relocating the embassy shouldn’t preclude a two-state solution that includes a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem, which the Palestinians have insisted on.

Such arguments have bipartisan buy-in in the United States. Martin Indyk and Daniel Shapiro, who both served as U.S. ambassadors to Israel under Democratic administrations, argue that moving the embassy could actually jumpstart the peace process if paired with recognition of Palestinian claims to the eastern half of the city.

How could Palestinians respond?

Neither Palestinians nor supporters of their cause abroad are mollified by those arguments. They view U.S. recognition of Jerusalem and an embassy move as a thumb on the scale of future negotiations, validating Israeli efforts to establish its claims in the absence of talks. And since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu routinely refers to Jerusalem as Israel’s “eternal, undivided capital,” and major Israeli opposition parties have welcomed the move, Palestinians could doubt that Israel ever intends to negotiate over Jerusalem.

Experts say Trump’s announcement is likely to compound a broader crisis of confidence among Palestinians that President Mahmoud Abbas, who has been in office for many years beyond his electoral mandate, can deliver statehood. Fatah and Hamas have called for three days of protest. Palestinian officials say they have no intention of sponsoring a third intifada, or uprising, yet there could well be grassroots violent resistance. To keep public confidence from further eroding, Abbas and the PLO could cut off security cooperation with Israel or withdraw Palestinian recognition of Israel. Saeb Erekat, a senior PLO official and veteran negotiator, said that by doing this the United States is “disqualifying itself to play any role in any initiative toward achieving a just and lasting peace.”

In the absence of negotiations, Palestinians could also seek membership in various UN agencies. U.S. law requires Washington to cut funding to any UN agency that admits the Palestinians as a full member, and so the United States could find itself without a voice at such bodies as the International Atomic Energy Association or the World Trade Organization.

What will be the international response?

Regional powers have already registered strong protests. Many of these are U.S. allies, and some have relations with Israel. Turkey said it will cut ties with Israel, while Jordan said it would thwart any subsequent U.S.-led peace initiative. Egypt and Saudi Arabia too warned Trump that recognition would be a provocation. Arab and Muslim publics around the world could protest the prospect that Jerusalem’s Islamic holy sites will remain permanently outside of Muslim control. Jordan’s King Abdullah II is particularly vulnerable to such charges, since the kingdom sponsors the Jerusalem Islamic Waqf, a trust that administers these sites.

If Saudi Arabia is perceived to be unable to protect Palestinians’ interests, the move could redound to Iran’s benefit, analysts say. “Muslims must stand unitedagainst this major plot,” President Hassan Rouhani said.

Public opposition to U.S. recognition of Jerusalem could also constrain Saudi Arabia, which has quietly been pursuing relations with Israel; the two have a common interest in containing Iran’s regional influence. Popular Saudi support for Palestinian statehood has prevented the kingdom from normalizing relations.

European leaders too warned against the move, saying it would set back any possible two-state solution. Few, if any, countries are expected to follow the United States’ lead by recognizing Jerusalem and relocating their embassies, meaning Jerusalem’s status would be no less internationally contested than before.

Analysts say that al-Qaeda and the self-proclaimed Islamic State could use the move to boost their recruiting pitches. More immediately, demonstrations at U.S. embassies and consulates are likely, and the State Department has made preparations for heightened risks of attack.

Who lives in Jerusalem?

Jerusalem is home to nearly one million residents. West Jerusalem’s population of some 330,000 is almost entirely Jewish. The eastern half of the city, which comprises the Old City, Palestinian neighborhoods, and refugee camps, along with some newer Jewish settlements, is home to about 320,000 Arabs and 212,000 Jews. Unlike Palestinians who live elsewhere in Israel, most Palestinian East Jerusalemites have permanent residency, but not citizenship, since they do not recognize Israeli sovereignty over the city.

East Jerusalemites complain of disparities in public services provided by the municipality, as well as discriminatory zoning, construction, and infrastructure policies, which, they fear, are meant to weaken Palestinian claims to the area. These inequities have in the past fueled protests and riots. So too have perceived changes to the management of and access to the Old City’s holy sites.

What’s At Stake With the U.S. Recognition of Jerusalem was originally published on Global Security Review.

The United States formally recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, according to an announcement made by President Donald Trump on December 6, 2017. The statement brushed aside widespread international opposition to the move. Trump will be directing the State Department to initiate the relocation of the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which is claimed by Israelis and Palestinians. The move is expected to take several years.

During a public address from the Diplomatic Reception Room at the White House, Trump said his announcement “marks the beginning of a new approach to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.” He continued by saying that “there will, of course, be disagreement and dissent regarding this announcement — but we are confident that ultimately, as we work through these disagreements, we will arrive at a place of greater understanding and cooperation.” He added that “this is nothing more or less than a recognition of reality.”

Trump’s decision goes in direct contrast to decades of American policy, as well as the rest of the international community, except Israel. No nation has its embassy in Jerusalem. It is also likely to stymy any effort to restart long-stalled peace Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Israel is the only country in the world where the international community largely unrecognizes the national capital that is claimed by the government. In the last days of the Obama administration, then-Secretary of State John Kerry said Palestinians have a shared claim to the holy city.

Trump’s controversial move is nearly guaranteed to derail peace talks between Palestinians and Israelis. Palestinians have sought to lay claim to East Jerusalem as the capital of their future state. Israel has occupied East Jerusalem since 1967. Trump will sign a six-month waiver off-setting the embassy’s relocation on national security grounds, according to an official knowledgeable on the matter.

Successive U.S. presidents of both parties have signed the waiver since the Jerusalem Embassy Act went into law in 1995, perpetually forestalling the building’s legislated move over concerns it could spark a diplomatic or security crisis, which would be a death knell for peace talks.

“Some say they lacked courage, but they made their best judgment based on facts as they understood them at the time,” Trump said about past presidents who signed the waiver. “Nevertheless, the record is in. After more than two decades of waivers, we are no closer to a lasting peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. It would be folly to assume that repeating the same formula would now produce a different or better result.”

Palestinian leaders have already called for three “days of rage” to contest Trump’s decision.

Jerusalem is considered a holy city to Jews, Christians, and Muslims. Any change to contested city’s status quo has been met with fierce opposition. Israel’s decision to restrict Muslim access to the al-Aqsa mosque compound in 2015 set off widespread street violence between Palestinians and Israeli security forces. An Israeli judgment to install controversial metal detectors at the mosque’s entrance earlier this year was ultimately reversed after being met with mass protests by Palestinians.

[bs-quote quote=”With widespread calls for demonstrations beginning December 6 in Jerusalem and the West Bank, U.S. government employees and their family members are not permitted until further notice to conduct personal travel in Jerusalem’s Old City and in the West Bank, to include Bethlehem and Jericho. Official travel by U.S. government employees in Jerusalem’s Old City and in the West Bank is permitted only to conduct essential travel and with additional security measures. United States citizens should avoid areas where crowds have gathered and where there is increased police and/or military presence. We recommend that U.S. citizens take into consideration these restrictions and the additional guidance contained in the Department of State’s travel warning for Israel, the West Bank and Gaza when making decisions regarding their travel.” style=”default” align=”center” author_name=”U.S. Department of State” author_avatar=”http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/dos-logo-light.png”][/bs-quote]

Recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and moving the U.S. embassy to the city could spark unrest across the Middle East and simultaneously undermine American efforts to develop a new peace plan. The State Department has issued warnings to U.S. embassies about possible protests across the Middle East.

U.S. Recognizes Jerusalem as Israeli Capital was originally published on Global Security Review.