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		<title>Can Denmark Defend Greenland from Trump?</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/can-denmark-defend-greenland-from-trump/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/can-denmark-defend-greenland-from-trump/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kirk Fansher&nbsp;&&nbsp;Curtis McGiffin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2026 13:34:16 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Allies & Extended Deterrence]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=32192</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The renewed attention on Greenland did not begin with Arctic ice melt or the quest for rare earth minerals. It began with discomfort, specifically, American discomfort with a long-standing European contradiction: claiming sovereignty over strategically vital territory while outsourcing its defense to others. That contradiction has come into sharp relief during the presidency of Donald [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/can-denmark-defend-greenland-from-trump/">Can Denmark Defend Greenland from Trump?</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The renewed attention on Greenland did not begin with Arctic ice melt or the quest for rare earth minerals. It began with discomfort, specifically, American discomfort with a long-standing European contradiction: claiming sovereignty over strategically vital territory while outsourcing its defense to others.</p>
<p>That contradiction has come into sharp relief during the presidency of Donald Trump, whose blunt interest in Greenland exposed what European diplomacy had long obscured. The controversy was framed as eccentricity or provocation, but the underlying grievance was familiar. For decades, the United States has underwritten European security while European governments reduced their defense investments in favor of generous welfare systems and subsidized industry, confident that the American half of the alliance would absorb the risk. The Greenland crisis has simply made that imbalance visible.</p>
<p><strong>Greenland’s Strategic Reality</strong></p>
<p>Greenland occupies a unique strategic position. It sits in the western hemisphere astride the Arctic approaches to the “GIUK Gap,” hosting critical space and missile-warning infrastructure essential to NATO’s early-warning architecture. The 2004 Defense Greenland Agreement between the United States and Denmark, Amending and Supplementing the Agreement of April 27, 1951, explicitly limits the US defense area in Greenland to Thule (Pituffik) Air (Space) Base only.</p>
<p>With Arctic sea lanes opening and undersea infrastructure becoming a focal point of competition, Greenland’s strategic importance is no longer peripheral but central. The question now confronting Europe is whether the small Kingdom of Denmark and, by extension, Europe, can demonstrate even minimal sovereignty over a territory it insists is non-negotiable but has left undefended for some 250 years.</p>
<p>Article 3 of the NATO Treaty states: “In order more effectively to achieve the objectives of this Treaty, the Parties, separately and jointly, by means of continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid, will maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist armed attack.” Put plainly, Denmark is obligated to maintain—on its own and on a continuous basis—the capacity to defend all its territory. By that standard, Denmark has failed to meet its Article 3 responsibilities for a very long time, if it ever has.</p>
<p>Despite its strategic importance, Greenland remains vulnerable and economically neglected. This is not an accident or a bureaucratic oversight. It is the result of a long-standing assumption—that the United States would indefinitely guarantee European sovereignty and sustain its social-economic model. That assumption no longer holds. Strategic competition is shifting away from open confrontation toward constant pressure, probing actions, and fait accompli. In this world, sovereignty is not something you can merely declare. It is something you must demonstrate.</p>
<p><strong>Trump, Europe, and the Sovereignty Question</strong></p>
<p>Trump’s narrative about Greenland was widely dismissed as transactional or unserious. Stripped of tone, however, the message was structural: As the Arctic presents opportunity, Greenland is even more strategically vital to North American security than ever before, and someone must take responsibility for securing and developing it.</p>
<p>This tension among NATO allies reflects a broader post–Cold War pattern. Europe expanded its regulatory, economic, and political influence while allowing NATO military funding and capability to atrophy. The resulting system elevated process, norms, and legalism over hard power security, sovereignty, and deterrence.</p>
<p>The renewed United States demand for Greenland exposes the limits of that model. If Denmark cannot even mount a minimal defense of its own territory, the problem is not American overreach, but European credibility.</p>
<p><strong>The UK Corollary</strong></p>
<p>In a striking act of geopolitical idealism, the United Kingdom has agreed to cede sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius—an “own goal” that harms US interests. Long regarded as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier,” Diego Garcia has been a cornerstone of US and UK power projection across the Middle East, East Africa, South Asia, and beyond for decades.</p>
<p>After years of legal and diplomatic pressure—culminating in adverse rulings from international courts and the United Nations—the UK concluded that continued unilateral control of the Chagos Archipelago was politically unsustainable in this rules-based international order. In 2024, London agreed to transfer sovereignty to Mauritius, a state increasingly influenced by Beijing, while attempting to preserve military access through a long-term, UK-funded lease.</p>
<p>On paper, operations continue. Leverage shifts from occupant to owner. Sovereignty matters: once surrendered, access rests on political permission rather than power. A future Beijing-aligned Mauritius could abrogate agreements or revoke leases, leaving the US and UK strategically stranded, “out of runway” and out of business in the Indian Ocean.</p>
<p>Like Diego Garcia, Greenland’s strategic value lies in assured access. Trusting that allies will always act in America’s best interest is folly. Access without ownership is always conditional; sovereignty without power is fragile. Both cases reveal the same risk—vital territory left exposed at a moment when great-power competition demands clarity, presence, and resolve.</p>
<p><strong>Sovereignty Requires Adequate Organic Defense</strong></p>
<p>Defending Greenland does not require national militarization on Cold War terms. It does not require large permanent formations or aggressive posturing. But it does require capability, presence, and integration of real forces tied to real geography. The fantasy of the [European] Liberal [global] Rules-based order is no longer sufficient alone.</p>
<p>A credible defense posture requires permanent ground, air, and naval forces. Presence must be sufficient to assert territorial control, secure the Arctic approaches, and protect key infrastructure. Additionally, it requires fifth-generation airpower, supported by NATO enablers sufficient to project air sovereignty and assert control over the airspace of the GIUK, along with integrated maritime and subsurface awareness to control approaches, advanced air and missile defense for critical nodes, and the logistics infrastructure required to sustain operations in an Arctic environment.</p>
<p>This is not an escalation; it is the minimum viable defense posture for the territory Denmark claims sovereignty over, NATO depends upon, and the Western Hemisphere demands. Anything less than that is not restraint; it is abdication.</p>
<p><strong>What Denmark Can Do</strong></p>
<p>For Denmark to retain its kingdom, it must fervently acknowledge that China and Russia are expanding their Arctic ambitions and that continuing to ignore or neglect this threat risks losing Greenland to another great power’s orbit. Denmark does not need to defend Greenland alone, but it must lead and meet its Article 3 responsibilities. Sovereignty cannot be subcontracted. First, Denmark must accept that a visible, persistent presence is non-negotiable. A battalion-sized force and a fighter squadron on Greenlandic soil are not a burden; they are a declaration of responsibility.</p>
<p>Second, Denmark must align force posture with geography. Arctic defense is not a side mission; it is central to Denmark’s strategic responsibilities and credibility. That requires prioritizing basing, sustainment, and readiness over symbolic deployments there or elsewhere.</p>
<p>Third, Denmark must integrate defense with economic development. Resource extraction, energy production, and infrastructure are not separate from security; they are its foundation. Without an economic base, defense remains episodic and less affordable. For the collective West, energy and critical element security is national security. If Denmark cannot execute these steps—even with allied support—then sovereignty is no longer exercised; it is merely asserted.</p>
<p><strong>How Europe Can Contribute Without Posturing</strong></p>
<p>Greenland offers Europe an opportunity to demonstrate what regional shared deterrence looks like. Contributions need not be equal in scale, but they must be meaningful in effect. Rotational air defense units, maritime patrol aircraft, icebreaking capacity, logistics support, and infrastructure investment tied directly to defense requirements would materially strengthen deterrence without grandstanding.</p>
<p>This is where Europe’s economic power must finally align with its strategic claims. Shared deterrence is not about symbolism or declarations. It is about complementary capability and sustained commitment.</p>
<p><strong>Can Europe Move Fast Enough?</strong></p>
<p>The decisive variable is time. Ten-year roadmaps and aspirational targets are irrelevant. Greenland’s exposure is immediate. The longer Europe delays, the more it reinforces the perception that sovereignty exists only on paper. Delay only serves to validate President Trump’s strategic demand.</p>
<p>Credible deterrence must begin within weeks, not months or years. Initial deployments need not be perfect, but they cannot be symbolic political statements devoid of the credible military capacity required for the mission. They need to be visible, permanent, and expandable.</p>
<p><strong>The Consequences of Failure</strong></p>
<p>Failure in Greenland would reverberate far beyond the Arctic. If Denmark cannot defend Greenland with allied assistance, then European claims of strategic autonomy collapse and NATO’s credibility fractures geographically. The United States will either act unilaterally or disengage selectively. Resource development will proceed without European leverage. Most damaging of all, failure would confirm a lesson Europe can no longer afford: that idealism and process cannot substitute for balance-of-power realism, and that international norms cannot enforce themselves. Where previous US presidential administrations relied on alliances, basing agreements, and quiet influence, President Trump has framed the issue in transactional terms: if Greenland was strategically vital, someone had to take responsibility for securing and developing it.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>Greenland is not a crisis invented in Washington. It is the result of allied neglect and free riding. Persistent underinvestment in defense, miscalculation of threats, and a readiness among many allies to subordinate their sovereignty to international norms have produced a growing crisis of confidence in the United States. This can only be reversed with real power projection and a NATO commitment to peace through strength.</p>
<p>Denmark does not need to match American power. It needs to demonstrate agency, urgency, and empathy. Denmark and greater NATO must listen to its most powerful ally and address its security concerns with great alacrity. Rather than escalating the rhetoric, Denmark should admit its negligence and mitigate the shortfall now. Europe does not need to replace the United States or drive it out of the alliance. It needs to stop pretending that sovereignty is cost-free or that it can be reliably substituted with treaties in perpetuity.</p>
<p>This President demands more of the alliance to defend America’s northern approaches. If Denmark and the rest of NATO cannot meet that demand, the United States will. What is being asked is reasonable. The Arctic is now NATO’s second front. If Europe cannot meet that demand here, it has become sovereignty insolvent and should stop speaking of autonomy elsewhere. Because in the end, reality does not respond to intention, only to real and persistent power.</p>
<p>Col (Ret.) Kirk Fansher is a senior fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. Col (Ret.) Curtis McGiffin is vice president of education at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. Views expressed by the authors are their own.</p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Can-Denmark-Defend-Greenland-from-Trump.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-32091" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Download-Button.png" alt="" width="209" height="58" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Download-Button.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Download-Button-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 209px) 100vw, 209px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/can-denmark-defend-greenland-from-trump/">Can Denmark Defend Greenland from Trump?</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>American Alliances in East Asia: An Australian Perspective</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/american-alliances-in-east-asia-an-australian-perspective/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/american-alliances-in-east-asia-an-australian-perspective/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Christine M. Leah]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jul 2025 12:00:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Allies & Extended Deterrence]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>In a recent Foreign Affairs article, Ely Ratner outlines a case for a Pacific Defense Pact. The concept of collective defense in the Asia-Pacific is not a novel idea, however, the historical record of a formal multilateral alliance in the region is not great. Moreover, Asia does not work the same way as Europe; there are significant [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/american-alliances-in-east-asia-an-australian-perspective/">American Alliances in East Asia: An Australian Perspective</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a recent <em>Foreign Affairs</em> article, Ely Ratner <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/case-pacific-defense-pact-ely-ratner">outlines</a> a case for a Pacific Defense Pact. The concept of collective defense in the Asia-Pacific is not a novel idea, however, the historical record of a formal multilateral alliance in the region is not great. Moreover, Asia does not work the same way as Europe; there are significant political, military, and technical challenges to any such pact. Fundamentally, there are bigger questions about American <a href="https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2025/06/hard-new-world/extract">resolve</a> in the region.</p>
<p>The existing US-led hub-and-spoke alliance system in the Asia-Pacific is fundamentally different than the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In the 1950s the US investigated the possibility of establishing a regional multilateral alliance, but this soon proved infeasible. <a href="https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&amp;&amp;p=6468a2c511c1d638cb1ed388821bf25e2242f747cec5cafe4583ef7597ec2e73JmltdHM9MTc1MDYzNjgwMA&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=4&amp;fclid=06a818df-621f-65fb-0ec8-0eca63876448&amp;psq=Asia-Pacific+Strategic+Relations%3A+Seeking+Convergent+Security+(Cambridge+University+Press%2C+Cambridge&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9jYXRhbG9ndWUubmxhLmdvdi5hdS9jYXRhbG9nLzMwMzQwMTY&amp;ntb=1">Unable to forge a Northeast Asian</a> equivalent to NATO at the onset of the Cold War, the US opted instead for the “hub-and-spoke” architecture, where the spokes radiate out from Washington in a network of asymmetrical ties reinforcing American regional dominance. Why?</p>
<p>First, compared to Europe, the Asia-Pacific has very little history of multilateral institutions and alliance formation. Modern European states have a history of doing so dating back well before the Treaty of Westphalia was established in 1648. European sovereign political systems emerged out of Westphalia; Europe came to develop different notions of international community and international order, based, in part, on the concept of international law. Asia did not have such a tradition of legalistic international agreements.</p>
<p>Second, geography also plays a significant role in the nature of warfare, and therefore the ability of countries to come to one another’s aid. European nations border each other, but they do so in a land context. As such, not only is it easier to move around troops and military equipment, but it is faster.</p>
<p>The nature of geography and distance also inform countries’ threat perceptions. NATO continues to endure because of a shared common adversary—Russia. Countries neighbor each other, making for an easily delineated bloc. The distances between Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia are formidable compared to Europe. Moreover, the sheer size of China, and the formidable military power of Japan, made it harder for smaller competitors to balance against them.</p>
<p>There were some attempts at bridging East and West. In 1954, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) was established because of the Southeast Asia Collective Defence Treaty. It included Australia, France, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the US and was designed to curb the spread of communism in Asia. A major reason SEATO failed and was disbanded in 1977 was because there was a lack of a common threat perception.</p>
<p>What did survive was the U.S. hub-and-spoke system: the US-Japan alliance as a means of curbing any potential regional Japanese aggression after World War II, the US- South Korea alliance to protect South Korea from a North Korean invasion, and the US alliance with Australia and New Zealand (ANZUS) to protect both nations from perceived threats of communist invasion by China and Indonesia.</p>
<p>Central and critical to the credibility of any alliance system is how it deters conflict. This is arguably much harder to achieve in a multilateral alliance than in the current hub-and-spoke system. Conventional deterrence in the Asian maritime theater is difficult. The most significant work on conventional deterrence was done by <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7591/j.ctt1rv61v2">John Mearsheimer</a>. However, Mearsheimer’s analysis may be persuasive for eras preceding the development of nuclear weapons, but the pre-nuclear era did not involve <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2014.895329">missiles</a><em>. </em>His analysis was based on a European land context, not an Asian maritime context. As such, thinking on conventional deterrence is incomplete.</p>
<p>There are significant logistical challenges that come with trying to establish a multilateral alliance system in Asia. Tasks include the need to ensure the prompt replenishment of destroyed combat ships, establish defensive perimeters for fleet support, and ensure the safety of fleet replenishment oilers and dry cargo/ammunition supply ships, just to name a few.</p>
<p>Budget constraints brought on by sequestration (2013), coupled with longer-term financial uncertainty, was raising questions about the US Navy’s Military Sealift Command and its combat logistics force more than a decade ago. Europe was, and remains, one single geostrategic entity connected by an excellent road network. In the Asia-Pacific, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are more dispersed, with neutral and non-aligned states between them, not to mention a growing Chinese submarine fleet.</p>
<p>American forces need to move around large numbers of ships, aircraft, troops, and munitions. Unless the US establishes more permanent bases on allied territory, it is not clear that the US is able to adequately deploy replacement capabilities on very short notice, especially once conflict breaks out. Whilst American declaratory policy that requires a defense of allies in Asia is sound, it needs to be backed up by raw capability, the two components of deterrence.</p>
<p>For more than a decade, analysts have encouraged the US to improve readiness and sustainment of the US Navy. In 2014, the <a href="https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/commanding-the-seas-a-plan-to-reinvigorate-u-s-navy-surface-warfare/">Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments</a> warned of many more similar issues, including how quickly cruisers and destroyers exhaust their missiles and how adversaries will attempt to use “cheap” missiles (such as the BrahMos cruise missile) to attack US warships to get them to use their most effective defenses first,  such as the long-range SM-6 missile, and then strike with more effective weapons to destroy carriers and their escorts.</p>
<p>The foundation of power projection was and remains sea control. As <a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/How-Defend-Australia-Hugh-White/dp/1760640999">Hugh White</a> argues, what has contributed to making the US such a decisive power in the region is a robust sea-control capacity with low risk, and therefore little cost. The modern concept of sea control has its origins in the writings of Rear Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan. Sea control was about naval superiority, the concentration of forces, and decisive battles.</p>
<p>Sea control is the condition in which one has freedom of action in specified areas and for specified periods of time and, where necessary, to deny or limit its use to the enemy. <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/influence-of-sea-power-upon-history-16601783/C3F2700EA234A6BB03CE08BFB53F86E5">Sea control is different from sea denial</a>. The latter refers to attempts to deny an adversary’s ability to use the sea without necessarily seeking to control the sea. When it comes to Asia, China and the United States are <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-96-2399-0_11">gradually trading places</a> when it comes to sea control.</p>
<p>Discussions about a multilateral alliance would arguably have to address the unavoidable question of nuclear weapons and extended nuclear deterrence (END). Discussions within NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group during the Cold War about targeting and basing helped calm nervous allies, helped hold NATO together, and, in some cases, helped stem the tide of proliferation.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF12735/IF12735.3.pdf">Both</a> the US–Republic of Korea Extended Deterrence Policy Committee (EDPC) and the US–Japan Extended Deterrence Dialogue were established after the 2010 <em>Nuclear Posture Review</em> for a similar purpose. There were growing concerns around the ability of the US to overcome China’s anti-access/area-denial capabilities and American support in the event of specific contingencies involving the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. Could these bilateral dialogues become multilateral fora? This applies just as much to conventional weapons, but where the members of the alliance are far apart from each other, the potential red lines of escalation and conflict are much less identifiable than they would be in a land context.</p>
<p>But the technical challenges in the credibility of American extended deterrence to Australia, Japan, and South Korea matter less than the reasons why the US would want to do nuclear strategy again, this time in East Asia, a vastly more complicated theater. What matters is interest.</p>
<p><a href="https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/server/api/core/bitstreams/5f44a88c-635e-427b-89a7-b8c5581d3890/content">Hugh White</a> raised the uncomfortable but critical issue when he suggested that Tokyo’s desire for a closer defense relationship with Australia is all about lining Australia up to support Japan against China, and that is the way Washington and Beijing will see it, too. Tokyo and Washington believe that Australia should defend the US-led international order and refuse concessions to China’s ambitions. Australians have not decided whether they agree with the US and Japan and are predisposed to seek a compromise with China—all while retaining a strong American role.</p>
<p>As White argued, no possible US nuclear posture, even the best possible, would eliminate the risk that a conflict with a nuclear-armed great power like China might lead to direct nuclear attacks on US territory. This leaves America’s East Asian allies to ponder whether American interests in the Western Pacific are strong enough for Washington to justify running the risk of conflict going nuclear.</p>
<p>Professor Paul Bracken of Yale University expressed concerns about American alliances in Asia. He found it nearly inconceivable that the US would actually use nuclear weapons to defend Australia, Japan, or Taiwan. Bracken noted that he played out countless scenarios, and that when it came down to it, American leaders were unwilling to use nuclear weapons. Bracken went so far as to suggest that the United States may not engage in a conventional hi-tech war with China, either.</p>
<p>Ely Ratner’s article is thought-provoking, valuable, and timely. But there are significant challenges in alliance credibility in Asia, because interests do not align as easily as they do in Europe. As former US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles remarked in <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/1952-01-01/security-pacific">1952</a>, “The North Atlantic Treaty reflected a sense of common destiny as between the peoples of the west, which grew out of a community of race, religion, and political institutions, before it was finalised. But that element does not clearly exist as yet anywhere in the Pacific area.” The same is true today, seven decades later.</p>
<p><em>Christine Leah, PhD, is a fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies.  </em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Alliances-in-Asia.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="227" height="63" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 227px) 100vw, 227px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/american-alliances-in-east-asia-an-australian-perspective/">American Alliances in East Asia: An Australian Perspective</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>How Civilian Dual-Use Technologies Are Reshaping Global Security Policies</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/how-civilian-dual-use-technologies-are-reshaping-global-security-policies/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/how-civilian-dual-use-technologies-are-reshaping-global-security-policies/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry Geisler]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jul 2025 12:17:17 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[AI & Deterrence]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=31187</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>In August 2024, police in northern Germany chased a fleet of drones loitering over critical infrastructure: a decommissioned nuclear plant, a chemical facility, and a Baltic liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal. The drones flew with impunity, reportedly reaching 100 kilometres an hour to evade police. Authorities launched an espionage investigation, suspecting the drones were scouting [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/how-civilian-dual-use-technologies-are-reshaping-global-security-policies/">How Civilian Dual-Use Technologies Are Reshaping Global Security Policies</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In August 2024, <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/08/29/drone-sightings-near-bases-infrastructure-unnerve-german-officials">police in northern Germany</a> chased a fleet of drones loitering over critical infrastructure: a decommissioned nuclear plant, a chemical facility, and a Baltic liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal. The drones flew with impunity, reportedly reaching 100 kilometres an hour to evade police. Authorities launched an espionage investigation, suspecting the drones were scouting for sabotage.</p>
<p>This was not an isolated incident. Civilian-grade drones and other dual-use technologies are increasingly being used to survey or target public infrastructure. From energy grids to airports, the connective tissue of modern life is exposed to risks once confined to traditional warzones. These developments are reshaping global security policies and blurring the boundary between civilian and military domains.</p>
<h3><strong>Civilian Tech, Strategic Impact</strong></h3>
<p>Cheap unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are now accessible worldwide. While drones were initially developed for military use, the most commonly deployed platforms today, such as DJI’s Mavic series, were originally built for civilian applications like aerial photography and videography. Their affordability, portability, and high-spec cameras made them commercially popular, but those same features have made them easy to repurpose for military contexts.</p>
<p>In particular, first-person view (FPV) drones, designed for immersive recreational flying, were rapidly adapted for frontline use in conflict. These drones are now routinely deployed with improvised explosives or used for precision reconnaissance. In Ukraine, both sides repurposed off-the-shelf drones in vast numbers; nearly two million were produced in 2024 alone. Many of these are equipped with AI-enabled navigation and targeting, underscoring how quickly civilian tech can be weaponised.</p>
<p>Non-state actors are following suit. Armed groups are using FPV drones for low-cost, high impact strikes on infrastructure, blurring the lines between military and civilian threats. This second drone age shows that national security vulnerabilities now stem as much from consumer technology as from conventional arsenals.</p>
<p>The broader implication is clear: private-sector innovations, often created without any defense intent, are shaping the battlefield. These companies bring novel use cases, technical advantages, or agile design processes that legacy defense contractors may overlook. Civilian tech is not just a risk; it is a potential strategic asset. Tapping into this ecosystem, especially among start-ups and experts, could redefine how the country protects critical infrastructure in an era of hybrid conflict.</p>
<p><strong>Infrastructure in the Crosshairs</strong></p>
<p>Modern infrastructure is a key target in modern conflicts or hybrid attacks, just like military bases traditionally were. In 2022, after the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/29/nord-stream-attacks-highlight-vulnerability-undersea-pipelines-west">sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines</a>, over 70 drone sightings were reported near Norwegian offshore oil platforms. Oslo feared Russian-linked hybrid operations targeting Europe’s energy supply and deployed naval assets and invited NATO allies to assist in patrols.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Ukraine’s energy grid suffered repeated drone and missile attacks, with waves of <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/drone-saturation-russias-shahed-campaign">low-cost Shahed drones</a> used to disable power plants. By spring 2024, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czvvj4j4p8ro">roughly half of Ukraine’s electricity capacity</a> was destroyed, forcing nationwide blackouts.</p>
<p>Outside conflict zones, attacks on infrastructure are also rising. In Sudan, a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx20x8g2nego">drone strike on a power station caused regional outages,</a> and other drone attacks on water purification stations left the country on the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3v5n5ynl59o">brink of a significant Cholera outbreak</a>. In the US, federal officials stopped an attack on a power grid by a man using an <a href="https://domesticpreparedness.com/articles/protecting-critical-infrastructure-from-weaponized-drones">explosive-carrying drone</a>.</p>
<p>Transportation hubs are vulnerable, too. In January 2025, <a href="https://d-fendsolutions.com/blog/europes-drone-challenge-and-countermeasures-in-2025/">drone activity shut down Riga Airport</a>, disrupting dozens of flights.</p>
<p><strong> </strong><strong>Gaps in Governance</strong></p>
<p><strong> </strong>Despite growing risks, legal and operational frameworks remain fragmented. Drones and AI-driven surveillance systems often fall outside traditional arms control regimes. As a recent<a href="https://www.flyingmag.com/white-house-unveils-package-of-drone-measures-in-executive-order/"> executive order</a> put it, “Criminals, terrorists, and hostile foreign actors have intensified their weaponization of drone technologies, creating new and serious threats to our homeland.”</p>
<p>Jurisdictional confusion is common. In many countries, local authorities lack legal authority to respond to rogue drones above critical sites. Aviation safety rules and privacy laws create hesitation, giving bad actors a head start.</p>
<p>Even when threat awareness exists, coordination is inconsistent. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency warns that drones are used for surveillance and sabotage, yet they lack the comprehensive tools to oversee private-sector resilience or cross-border response.</p>
<p><strong> </strong><strong>A Global Security Challenge</strong></p>
<p><strong> </strong>Drone and AI threats are not confined by borders. In 2023, the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/newsroom/cipr/items/805599/en">European Commission launched a new counter-drone strategy</a>, urging member states to harden infrastructure and coordinate airspace protections. NATO has added counter-UAS exercises to its joint drills, while AUKUS partners are beginning to share emerging drone and AI tactics.</p>
<p>But international law is lagging. There is still no global treaty governing the use of armed drones or autonomous surveillance. Export control regimes struggle to manage proliferation of AI-enabling components. At the UN, efforts to establish binding norms on autonomous weapons are stalled. Ad hoc coordination is, however, slowly improving.</p>
<p>When Norway’s oil platforms were threatened, NATO allies were called in within days. After drone sightings near Dutch and Belgian ports, neighboring governments exchanged countermeasure plans. These models suggest a path forward: rapid and collective responses based on shared tools, shared doctrine, and shared threat intelligence.</p>
<p>The future of civilian dual-use technologies will not be defined by innovators alone. Whether drones or AI software, these tools are already reshaping how adversaries threaten public safety and economic continuity. What is at stake is not just national security, but the resilience of infrastructure that supports daily life.</p>
<p><strong>The Crucial Role of Start-ups in National Defense</strong></p>
<p><strong> </strong>Civilian-origin technologies are now driving the next wave of defense capability. From FPV drones to AI surveillance tools, some of the most disruptive military applications today are emerging not from traditional defense primes but from commercial markets, often developed by start-ups with no military background.</p>
<p>A coordinated international framework is urgently needed, one that does not just support innovation and infrastructure protection but actively integrates civilian tech into defense planning. This means lowering the barriers for experts and start-ups to meaningfully contribute alongside legacy contractors. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-strategic-defence-review-2025-making-britain-safer-secure-at-home-strong-abroad/the-strategic-defence-review-2025-making-britain-safer-secure-at-home-strong-abroad#:~:text=Industry%2Dbacked.,new%2C%20segmented%20approach%20to%20procurement:&amp;text=Major%20modular%20platforms%20(contracting%20within,on%20novel%20technologies%20each%20year.">United Kingdom’s recent <em>Defence Review</em></a> hinted at this shift, recognising that smaller firms are vital to national resilience, particularly when civilian infrastructure is under threat.</p>
<p>What is truly needed is a NATO-wide or broader allied framework that enables cross-border collaboration, streamlines regulation, and opens up procurement pathways.</p>
<p>Today, many start-ups working at the intersection of security and technology face steep hurdles: limited access to capital, opaque compliance regimes, and procurement processes designed around, and for, large incumbents. Yet by creating space for their innovation, we can modernize collective defense from the ground up, using the very same civilian tools that adversaries are already turning into weapons.</p>
<p>A coordinated international framework is urgently needed, one that not only supports innovation and infrastructure protection but also lowers barriers to experts and start-ups to contribute more meaningfully alongside traditional defense primes. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-strategic-defence-review-2025-making-britain-safer-secure-at-home-strong-abroad/the-strategic-defence-review-2025-making-britain-safer-secure-at-home-strong-abroad#:~:text=Industry%2Dbacked.,new%2C%20segmented%20approach%20to%20procurement:&amp;text=Major%20modular%20platforms%20(contracting%20within,on%20novel%20technologies%20each%20year.">UK’s recent <em>Defence</em> <em>Review </em>hinted at this shift</a>, recognizing the value smaller firms bring to national resilience. It is time to take similar action at home.</p>
<p><em>Harry Geisler is the CEO of YAVA.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/How-Civilian-Dual-Use-Technologies-Are-Reshaping-Global-Security-Policies.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="180" height="50" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 180px) 100vw, 180px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/how-civilian-dual-use-technologies-are-reshaping-global-security-policies/">How Civilian Dual-Use Technologies Are Reshaping Global Security Policies</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>Extending the Golden Dome: AUKUS Pillar 2</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/extending-the-golden-dome-aukus-pillar-2/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Natalie Treloar]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2025 10:39:04 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Allies & Extended Deterrence]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=31074</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>As the United States attempts to better understand the requirements of President Trump’s Golden Dome program, pillar two of the AUKUS agreement has the potential to help solve the “integration problem at massive scale” and provide the needed architecture for collective defense. This initiative would also prevent AUKUS pillar two from “failing in its mission” [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/extending-the-golden-dome-aukus-pillar-2/">Extending the Golden Dome: AUKUS Pillar 2</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As the United States attempts to better understand the requirements of President Trump’s Golden Dome program, pillar two of the AUKUS agreement has the potential to help solve the “<a href="https://www.csis.org/events/americas-golden-dome-explained">integration problem at massive scale</a>” and provide the needed architecture for collective defense. This initiative would also prevent AUKUS pillar two from “<a href="https://warontherocks.com/2025/06/aukus-pillar-ii-is-failing-in-its-mission-it-needs-its-own-optimal-pathway/">failing in its mission</a>” by enabling the prioritization of advanced technologies at the <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/why-america-shouldnt-underestimate-chinese-power">scale</a> required to achieve Golden Dome missile defense.</p>
<p>Golden Dome is focused on specific <a href="https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/golden_dome.pdf">missile threats to the American homeland</a>. AUKUS pillar two is designed to reduce the <a href="https://ad-aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/2023-06/PB69-CriticalTechTracker-AUKUS%20relevant%20technologies%20top%2010%20country%20snapshot.pdf">significant lead</a> China has in dual-use emerging technologies. An “extended” Golden Dome approach that produces strong and resilient allies may provide greater strategic deterrence than an America alone approach.</p>
<p>As stronger allies contribute more to collective defense through <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/shared-threats-indo-pacific-alliances-and-burden-sharing-todays-geopolitical-environment">burden sharing</a>, this can reduce the financial and military burden on the United States. Capable allies can deter aggression and manage local conflicts, promoting <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/burden-sharing-responsibility-sharing">regional stability</a> without constant American intervention.</p>
<p>If allies are seen as weak and easily overrun, it may undermine the <a href="https://researchportalplus.anu.edu.au/en/publications/alliances-and-nuclear-risk-strengthening-us-extended-deterrence">credibility of alliances and security guarantees</a>, thereby emboldening adversaries. Strong allies often bring <a href="https://carnegieindia.org/research/2024/09/innovative-alliance-us-australian-defense-science-and-technology-cooperation-for-a-dangerous-decade?lang=en">advanced technologies</a> and capabilities that enhance joint operations through interoperability and innovation.</p>
<p>Defeating fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS), intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), hypersonic glide weapons, and land-attack cruise missile threats is the <a href="https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/golden_dome.pdf">focus</a> of Golden Dome, which “<a href="https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/golden-dome-strategic-impacts-of-an-untouchable-united-states/">proposes</a> a multilayered defense network capable of intercepting threats during the boost, <a href="https://www.heritage.org/military-strength/assessment-us-military-power/missile-defense">midcourse, and terminal stages</a> of missile flight.” Some analysts argue that it is easiest to target these threats in the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOVMSRxbyl4">boost/ascent phase</a>.</p>
<p>Targeting the <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/publication/interception/#:~:text=A%20COIL%20system%20(Chemical%20Oxygen,benefits%20of%20using%20a%20Zeppelin.">boost</a> phase can either occur from allied territory, targeting North Korean missiles from South Korea, or the homeland. The boost phase can also be <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOVMSRxbyl4">targeted from space</a>. However, targeting from space is not without its own unique set of challenges. Either way, it will not be solved by America without its allies.</p>
<p>Arguably, five-eyes countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom, and United States) are already entangled in American <a href="https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF11697/IF11697.6.pdf">nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3)</a>. Furthermore, the US operates in coordination with other military forces as part of broader coalition operations. Hence, extending Golden Dome to allies is not only possible, but can further leverage the AUKUS pillar two effort. Moreover, a missile defense system consists of <a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/sensors-command-control/">sensors, interceptors, and command-and-control systems</a> that work together to detect, track, and intercept incoming missiles.</p>
<p>These necessary components exist in AUKUS pillar two working groups like the cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomy, quantum technologies, undersea capabilities, hypersonics and counter-hypersonics, electronic warfare capabilities, innovation and information sharing, and the deep-space advanced radar capability program (DARC).</p>
<p>AUKUS pillar two leadership should prioritize the development of technologies and supporting systems for an effective extended Golden Dome architecture. America is unlikely to solve the problem in isolation by building a “<a href="https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/golden-dome-strategic-impacts-of-an-untouchable-united-states/">tightly integrated system of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, terrestrial radar stations, directed-energy platforms, and kinetic interceptors</a>” that senses, decides, and neutralizes incoming missiles. The linkages and opportunities for the prioritization of advanced technology development for missile defense can be found in the following summaries.</p>
<p>Cyber capabilities encompass both offensive and defensive operations for missile defense. Offensive cyber tools are used to deter adversaries and disrupt their operations through tactics such as cyber-reconnaissance, communication isolation, targeted strikes, and network intrusions. Defensively, military forces can prioritize robust network protection, active threat disruption, and seamless coordination across units to safeguard critical systems. Cyber operations can enhance intelligence gathering, command and control, and information warfare to shape public perception and the broader information environment. As conflict evolves, training personnel in cyber tactics and integrating machine learning for threat detection and analysis can maintain strategic advantage.</p>
<p>AI and autonomy can transform missile defense and military operations by enhancing efficiency, precision, and decision-making. Autonomous weapon systems are used for reconnaissance, surveillance, and combat missions. AI-driven wargaming platforms simulate real-world combat scenarios to help strategists test tactics and improve readiness. In command and control, AI supports real-time data processing and analysis. AI optimizes logistics by improving resource allocation, supply-chain management, and transportation.</p>
<p>In intelligence and surveillance, AI analyzes vast datasets to detect patterns and identify threats. Additionally, AI monitors threats and predicts future events. Human-machine teaming allows AI systems to collaborate with human operators, combining strengths and minimizing errors.</p>
<p>Quantum technologies transform missile defenses through enhanced security, operational efficiency, and advanced training. In cybersecurity, quantum-resistant cryptography is being developed to protect against the threat quantum computers pose to traditional encryption. Quantum key distribution offers highly secure communication by transmitting encryption keys through quantum channels, making interception nearly impossible.</p>
<p>In military operations, quantum algorithms can optimize logistics, supply chains, and battlefield strategies by analyzing complex data in real time. Quantum computing could process data in real time, enabling missile defense systems to rapidly analyze incoming threats, allowing for quicker decision-making and more effective interception. Additionally, quantum computing could enable highly accurate simulations of complex systems like nuclear reactions and weapon designs.</p>
<p>Undersea capabilities encompass a wide range of offensive and defensive functions that contribute to missile defense. Offensively, submarines and other undersea platforms can strike surface vessels, submarines, and land-based targets. They are also instrumental in inserting special forces into hostile territory for reconnaissance or sabotage missions. Undersea vehicles play a key role in mine warfare, either by laying mines or clearing minefields. On the defensive side, these platforms are vital for anti-submarine warfare, enabling the detection and neutralization of enemy submarines. They also support surveillance and reconnaissance efforts, gathering intelligence on enemy naval movements. Undersea systems help protect vital infrastructure such as pipelines and communication cables and help ensure safe navigation.</p>
<p>Hypersonic weapons and counter-hypersonic systems are vital to missile defense operations. Hypersonic glide weapons and hypersonic cruise missiles are designed to strike targets with exceptional speed, maneuverability, and precision while evading traditional defenses. Counter-hypersonic capabilities include advanced sensors and tracking systems like radar and satellite imaging to detect and monitor hypersonic weapons. Hypersonic interceptors aim to neutralize threats mid-flight, while high-power lasers and microwave weapons can disrupt their guidance systems. Effective command-and-control systems are essential for coordinating these defenses, and soft-kill measures such as cyberattacks offer additional means to interfere with hypersonic weapons.</p>
<p>Electronic warfare is fundamental for gaining military advantages in cross-domain missile defense. Electronic attack includes jamming enemy communications, radar, and navigation systems. It also includes spoofing—sending false signals to enemy forces. Electromagnetic or directed-energy weapons disable or destroy enemy assets. Electronic protection ensures secure communication through encryption and satellite links and employs electronic countermeasures (ECM) to defend against attack. Electronic counter-countermeasures are used to overcome enemy ECM and maintain operational effectiveness. Electronic support can be focused on gathering intelligence through signals interception, using sensors for surveillance and target acquisition, and detecting threats in the electromagnetic spectrum.</p>
<p><em>            In short, under the auspices of AUKUS pillar two, Australia and the United Kingdom can contribute to Golden Dome in ways that many may not be thinking about. As longtime allies with a shared culture, history, and values, working together on Golden Dome just makes sense. </em></p>
<p><em>Natalie Treloar is a Senior Analyst at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies (NIDS), a Non-Resident Fellow at the Indo-Pacific Studies Center (IPSC), the Australian Company Director of Alpha-India Consultancy, and a cohost of the NIDS Deterrence Down Under Podcast.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Extending-the-Golden-Dome-AUKUS-Pillar-2-and-the-Architecture-of-Collective-Defense.pdf"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="173" height="48" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 173px) 100vw, 173px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/extending-the-golden-dome-aukus-pillar-2/">Extending the Golden Dome: AUKUS Pillar 2</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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