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		<title>Energy Security and Strategic Ambition: Evaluating the UAE’s Nuclear Journey</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/energy-security-and-strategic-ambition-evaluating-the-uaes-nuclear-journey/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/energy-security-and-strategic-ambition-evaluating-the-uaes-nuclear-journey/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tahir Mahmood Azad]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2025 15:04:37 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Allies & Extended Deterrence]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=31875</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>When the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant began delivering electricity to the national grid in 2021, it marked more than a technical achievement. It signalled a strategic reorientation in how the United Arab Emirates (UAE) understands energy security, economic competitiveness, and regional leadership in advanced technologies. The first commercial nuclear power plant in the Arab world [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/energy-security-and-strategic-ambition-evaluating-the-uaes-nuclear-journey/">Energy Security and Strategic Ambition: Evaluating the UAE’s Nuclear Journey</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant began delivering electricity to the national grid in <a href="https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/UAE-s-first-nuclear-unit-starts-commercial-operati?utm_source=chatgpt.com">2021</a>, it marked more than a technical achievement. It signalled a strategic reorientation in how the United Arab Emirates (UAE) understands energy security, economic competitiveness, and regional leadership in advanced technologies.</p>
<p>The first commercial nuclear power plant in the Arab world is now fully operational, with all four units online and providing roughly a quarter of the country’s electricity. In a region traditionally defined by oil wealth, Barakah represents an intentional shift toward a diversified, low-carbon economy aligned with long-term sustainability goals.</p>
<p>The urgency behind this shift stems from rising domestic energy demand, climate commitments, and the need to hedge against volatility in fossil fuel markets. The UAE’s strategy positions nuclear power not as a replacement for hydrocarbons, but as a stabilising foundation within a broader clean-energy system. With global competition intensifying over clean-technology leadership, the UAE’s nuclear program has become a key pillar of national planning, industrial policy, and diplomatic signalling.</p>
<p>Barakah’s completion is notable in a world where many nuclear projects are delayed or cancelled. Built with South Korea’s <a href="https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-power-reactors/advanced-nuclear-power-reactors">KEPCO</a> and operated by Nawah Energy Company, the reactors were brought online between <a href="https://www.nucnet.org/news/fourth-and-final-reactor-starts-up-at-uae-nuclear-power-station-3-5-2024">2021 and 2024</a> on a timeline that compares favourably with international benchmarks.</p>
<p>The program is overseen by the Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation (<a href="https://fanr.gov.ae/en/media-centre/news?g=0064CCB7-5169-4BC8-992E-F4759E85A8F7&amp;utm_source=chatgpt.com">FANR</a>), which maintains a comprehensive regulatory framework and publishes transparent safety and inspection assessments. This regulatory credibility underpins both domestic public confidence and international recognition, distinguishing the UAE’s program from states whose nuclear ambitions raise proliferation concerns.</p>
<p>The impact on decarbonisation is already measurable. According to the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC), Barakah currently avoids around <a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/08/07/milestone-moment-as-uae-produces-low-carbon-aluminium-using-barakah-nuclear-plant/#:~:text=The%20clean%20electricity%20is%20certified,recycling%20plant%20at%20Al%20Taweelah.">22.4 million tons of carbon</a> emissions annually, equivalent to removing nearly 4.8 million cars from the road. This mitigation supports the UAE’s net zero by 2050 <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UAE_LTLEDS.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Strategic Initiative</a>.</p>
<p>This forms part of wider clean-energy planning that includes hydrogen, expanded solar capacity, and carbon-efficient industrial development. Nuclear power provides stable baseload output that complements intermittent renewables and stabilizes the electricity system as demand grows.</p>
<p>The UAE’s nuclear program is also a catalyst for scientific and industrial capabilities. Prior to Barakah’s commissioning, the UAE invested in human capital through institutions such as <a href="https://www.ku.ac.ae/opportunity/?lang=en&amp;redirectionURI=659fa37d57dfc659fa37d57dfd&amp;utm_source=chatgpt.com">Khalifa University</a>, which established the Emirates Nuclear Technology Centre (<a href="https://www.wam.ae/en/article/hszr9jzl-ministry-energy-launches-emirates-nuclear?utm_source=chatgpt.com">ENTC</a>) to support reactor safety, radiation science, and advanced materials research. Alongside operator training and regulatory capacity building, these programs expand domestic expertise in high-value sectors that extend beyond power generation. Over time, these skills contribute to cybersecurity, digital instrumentation, robotics for plant inspection, and reactor systems modelling.</p>
<p>This knowledge base has spillover effects in multiple fields. In nuclear medicine, investments in radiopharmaceutical production and imaging facilities have strengthened diagnostic and therapeutic services, enabling the UAE to become a regional hub for advanced cancer treatment. In agriculture, the application of nuclear techniques such as the sterile insect technique (<a href="https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/AdditionalVolumes/15810/15810-Vol3.pdf">SIT</a>) has supported integrated pest management, reducing chemical pesticide use and improving food security. In industry, nuclear-powered low-carbon aluminium production demonstrates how nuclear energy can decarbonize energy-intensive exports, positioning the UAE competitively as global markets introduce carbon border adjustment mechanisms.</p>
<p>However, several longer-term challenges require sustained policy focus. First, the <a href="https://cnpp.iaea.org/public/countries/AE/profile/highlights">UAE’s nonproliferation model</a>, which commits to no enrichment and no reprocessing, enhances international trust but requires resilient fuel-cycle logistics. Ensuring diversified fuel suppliers and clearly articulated strategies for spent-fuel management will be essential over the fleet’s 60- to 80-year operational life.</p>
<p>Second, as more renewable energy is integrated into the grid, nuclear power plants will need to operate flexibly to maintain system stability. This will require advanced forecasting, large-scale storage solutions, and coordinated dispatch strategies.</p>
<p>A third challenge is ensuring that the nuclear workforce remains locally grounded and resilient. While Emiratization in the sector has advanced, retaining specialised talent requires clear career progression pathways, applied research opportunities, and continued collaboration with global operators, research laboratories, and regulatory bodies. Sustaining this talent pipeline is vital not only for Barakah’s long-term success but also for future reactor projects or advanced nuclear applications.</p>
<p>These considerations are particularly important as the UAE explores a potential second nuclear plant, which has been signalled in government discussions and energy planning reports. A second site could reinforce fleet-level operations, enhance outage scheduling, expand industrial applications, and deepen domestic supply-chain maturity. If pursued, the contracting and technology-selection process will become a significant geopolitical signal in the Gulf energy landscape, particularly as other states in the region show growing interest in nuclear power.</p>
<p>The UAE is now uniquely positioned to shape the trajectory of civil nuclear development in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Establishing a GCC <a href="https://fanr.gov.ae/en/media-centre/news?g=0064CCB7-5169-4BC8-992E-F4759E85A8F7&amp;utm_source=chatgpt.com">Nuclear Regulation and Safety Forum,</a> anchored in FANR’s experience, could enable shared emergency preparedness frameworks, cybersecurity standards, and safety culture norms. Similarly, coordinating research networks in radiopharmaceutical production, nuclear-enabled agriculture, and advanced reactor technologies could support regional industrial integration. These collaborative frameworks would not only enhance security and performance standards but also reduce duplication of effort among neighboring states.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, discussions around <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs#:~:text=Both%20public%20and%20private%20institutions,practice%20once%20they%20are%20deployed.">small modular reactors</a> (SMR) and microreactors are expanding globally. These technologies offer potential applications for district cooling, desalination, and off-grid industrial clusters. For the UAE, SMRs could complement rather than replace large-scale reactors. Any adoption pathway must be grounded in demonstrated vendor maturity, regulatory readiness, supply-chain localization, and long-term cost predictability. The UAE’s existing regulatory and operational foundation gives it a comparative advantage in evaluating such options pragmatically rather than rhetorically.</p>
<p>The UAE’s experience demonstrates that new nuclear programmes can be delivered on time, integrated into a national climate strategy, and used to catalyse broader scientific and economic development. The challenge now is to advance from successful construction to strategic expansion, ensuring fuel-cycle resilience, embedding research translation, supporting workforce depth, and strengthening regional cooperation mechanisms. If these next steps are taken with the same planning discipline that characterised the first phase, the UAE will not only retain its role as the GCC’s leader in civil nuclear power but also provide a model for how emerging economies can balance energy security with strategic ambition in a decarbonizing world.</p>
<p><em>Tahir Azad, PhD, is a Research Scholar in the Department of Politics at the University of Reading. Views expressed are the author&#8217;s own. </em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Energy-Security-and-Strategic-Ambition.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="241" height="67" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 241px) 100vw, 241px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/energy-security-and-strategic-ambition-evaluating-the-uaes-nuclear-journey/">Energy Security and Strategic Ambition: Evaluating the UAE’s Nuclear Journey</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>What It Takes to Neutralize the Houthi Threat</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/what-it-takes-to-neutralize-the-houthi-threat/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/what-it-takes-to-neutralize-the-houthi-threat/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mohamed ELDoh]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 May 2025 12:21:14 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Archive]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Threats]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Arab states]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arab unity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ballistic missile capabilities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bandar Abbas]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[cyber disruptions]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Egypt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial isolation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitical leverage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global shipping disruption]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Horn of Africa]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[red sea]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Yemen]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=30716</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The Red Sea has re-emerged as a vital fault line in the struggle for regional power, maritime security, and geopolitical leverage. At the center of this growing turbulence stand the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Their increasingly bold attacks on international shipping as well as the showcasing of their ballistic missile capabilities, when launching attacks against Israel, transformed [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/what-it-takes-to-neutralize-the-houthi-threat/">What It Takes to Neutralize the Houthi Threat</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Red Sea has re-emerged as a vital fault line in the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67614911">struggle</a> for regional power, maritime security, and geopolitical leverage. At the center of this growing turbulence stand the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Their increasingly bold attacks on international shipping as well as the showcasing of their ballistic missile capabilities, when launching attacks against Israel, transformed them from a local insurgency into a strategic threat with global ramifications. While President Donald Trump’s bombing of the Houthi’s <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-s-d%C3%A9tente-with-the-houthis/ar-AA1EoBYF?ocid=BingNewsSerp">led to a ceasefire</a> against American shipping, it is not a permanent solution.</p>
<p>Current responses, ranging from US, UK, and Israeli airstrikes to maritime task forces, aim to degrade the Houthis’ operational capabilities. Except for recent American bombing efforts, they have fallen short of effectively neutralizing the group’s capacity to pose a critical threat to maritime trade in the Red Sea as well as the wider threat of destabilizing the region.</p>
<p>What it would truly take to dismantle the Houthi threat, in a sustainable and strategic manner, requires a multi-dimensional, coalition-led effort that combines kinetic force, strategic isolation, regional realignment, and political recalibration. Many of these key strategic components are still missing in the current response to the Houthis’ actions.</p>
<p><strong>The Houthi Threat: Tactical Capabilities, Strategic Leverage</strong></p>
<p>Beginning in 2023, the Houthis began escalating their attacks against civilian and military vessels in the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and even the Gulf of Aden—utilizing Iranian-supplied drones, cruise missiles, and unmanned suicide boats. These attacks achieved several objectives for the group and its backers in Tehran. First, the attacks successfully disrupted global shipping, raising insurance rates and negatively impacting Egypt’s Suez Canal, which saw a <a href="https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/04/17/egypts-suez-canal-revenue-fell-sharply-in-2024-on-regional-tensions#:~:text=The%20Suez%20Canal%20Authority%2C%20which,posted%20on%20its%20Facebook%20page.">decrease</a> of almost 60 percent of its annual revenue from $10.3 billion in 2023 to $4 billion in 2024. Second, the Houthis’ attacks provided a clear projection of Iranian deterrence without a confrontation with the US. Third, the attacks repositioned the Houthis as a pan-regional “resistance” actor, not merely a Yemeni faction.</p>
<p>Despite Israel’s effective strike on Yemen’s sea port of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g9njjrek2o">Hudaydah</a> followed by another set of strikes a day later, including ones on the main <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/06/middleeast/israeli-unprecedented-evacuation-warning-yemen-airport-intl">airport</a> in Sanaa, which probably prompted the Houthis to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/06/politics/us-to-stop-strikes-on-houthis-in-yemen">inform</a> the US that they “don’t want to fight anymore,” the Houthi leadership still exists and their armed capabilities are far from degraded.</p>
<p>If anything is beneficial out of such ceasefire, it is only for the Houthis as it would ultimately allow them to reorganize their resistance and offensive capabilities. Furthermore, the Houthis’ obvious ballistic missile and drone capabilities pose a threat to Israel more than ever before.</p>
<p><strong>The Inadequacy of Current Approaches</strong></p>
<p>Western-led responses include airstrikes on Houthi launch sites, naval deployments like Operation Prosperity Guardian, and diplomatic pressure via the UN Security Council. Yet, these actions failed to produce long-term deterrence for four main reasons.</p>
<p>First, Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Egypt, lack strategic unity regarding Yemen. Conflicting Arab views on how to engage the Houthi threat, along with differing opinions on the alignment of the US military response to the Houthis, are significantly limiting the effectiveness of the US efforts to degrade Houthi capabilities.</p>
<p>Second, Houthi adaptability and decentralized operations make targeting difficult. Houthi leadership, in several interviews, praised their unique structure and claimed it is different from that of Hamas and Hezbollah in terms of not relying on any communication technologies within the group and yet having a decentralized distribution in the mountains in Yemen.</p>
<p>Third, Iranian support continues uninterrupted through land and maritime smuggling. <a href="https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-805692">Reports</a> from 2024 revealed that UN mechanisms failed to inspect most ships heading to Houthi-controlled ports.</p>
<p>Fourth, the proximity of civilian infrastructure to military targets limits the rules of engagement for Western forces. Furthermore, there is no insufficient political strategy to undercut Houthi legitimacy among Yemenis, and still, many of the Yemeni population appeal to the Houthi group. Based on the above, an effective strategy for neutralizing the Houthis’ capabilities requires escalation dominance across the military, economic, information, and political domains.</p>
<p><strong>A Multi-Domain Campaign to Neutralize the Houthis</strong></p>
<p>A shift to precision airstrikes by the United States was necessary, but more is needed. This includes high-value targeting of command-and-control (C2) nodes, drone operation sites, missile production sites, and technical assembly sites. Covert special operations strikes by Arab and American forces, to sabotage radar arrays, smuggling depots, and launchpads in areas like Al-Hudaydah and Sa’ada, is also needed.</p>
<p>Furthermore, border security <a href="https://www.fdd.org/analysis/op_eds/2025/03/07/oman-is-supporting-the-houthis-it-should-be-held-to-account/">cooperation</a> from Oman is crucial in addition to placing an effective security cooperation framework with Eastern African states, where much of the Iranian weapons <a href="https://south24.net/news/newse.php?nid=4623">smuggling</a> is taking place. Enforcement of naval dominance will occur through the establishment of exclusion zones in the Red Sea, supported by AEGIS destroyers and Gulf-based airpower.</p>
<p>Although the US Navy is taking the lead role in such functions, establishing a regional US-Arab naval cooperation is a key factor in eliminating the threats posed by the Houthis as well as further preventing the smuggling of weapons, missile components, and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) components to the Houthis via the sea. Cyber disruptions targeting the Houthis’ satellite navigation, drone-control networks, and internal communications is needed. This function is far more complex than it may appear, given that reports <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/trump-should-not-forget-the-russian-hand-behind-the-houthis/">indicate</a> that Russia supports the Houthis with targeting data.</p>
<p>Furthermore, it is also <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/how-china-turned-the-red-sea-into-a-strategic-trap-for-the-us/">reported</a> that the Houthi leadership coordinates directly with Chinese officials regarding safe passage for Chinese vessels. In addition to US sanctions against Chinese satellite and shipping firms, providing evidence that China’s technological support strengthens Houthi capabilities is needed.</p>
<p>Accordingly, effective US-Arab intelligence cooperation should be further enhanced to isolate Houthi access to foreign powers. This military approach must be continuous, not episodic, and paired with intelligence fusion centers involving the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egyptians.</p>
<p><strong>Strategic Isolation of the Houthis from Iran</strong></p>
<p>Without eliminating the Houthi connection to Tehran, no solution can succeed. This requires the interdiction of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maritime routes, especially between the Bandar Abbas–Socotra–Horn of Africa corridor. Hence, the situation ultimately requires enhanced maritime domain awareness, including the use of satellites to ensure effective monitoring of vessels coming to Yemen, not to mention the essential need for regional security cooperation among all the nations surrounding these locations.</p>
<p>The financial isolation of the Houthis and associated members by pressuring banking entities and crypto <a href="https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/ofac-highlights-hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars-in-cryptocurrency-transactions-related-to-irgc-connected-houthi-financier-said-al-jamal/">exchanges</a> that facilitate Iranian transfers to Houthis requires improvement. Continuously drying up the cash sources provided to the Houthis is a key factor in dismantling their operational capabilities. Additionally, increasing regional pressure on Oman to improve its border monitoring and security efforts is crucial for reducing overland routes used for arms and cash smuggling.</p>
<p>Overall, Iran’s support for the Houthis is part of its “ring of fire” doctrine. To dismantle this arc, the Houthis must be made a liability, not an asset, for Tehran.</p>
<p><strong>Recalibrating the Regional Arab Response</strong></p>
<p>Arab unity is a missing ingredient in the fight against the Houthis. A new Red Sea Defense Compact is required, comprising a joint command structure involving the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, and, ultimately, Oman. Having a regional naval and airbase integration with a primary role for Egypt and Saudi Arabia would provide a forward-operating presence across the Red Sea. Given that Houthi disruption of Red Sea commerce and maritime passage directly threatens Egypt’s economic security, strategic re-engagement is particularly important. Such an arrangement would also create a strategic opportunity for a further deepening of US-Egypt defense cooperation and alignment of mutual regional interests.</p>
<p>The need for a Saudi-UAE reconciliation over Yemen’s future is essential, possibly via American mediation. Otherwise, even after neutralizing the Houthi threat, the region risks a politically unstable Yemen. If Arab states continue to act independently, they risk being played against each other, benefiting Iran and prolonging the conflict.</p>
<p><em>Dr. Mohamed ELDoh is a business development and consulting professional in the defense and security sector. </em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/what-it-takes-to-neutralize-the-houthi-threat/">What It Takes to Neutralize the Houthi Threat</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>Iran’s Multidimensional Strategy</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/irans-multidimensional-strategy/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rufat Ahmedzade]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Jun 2024 12:39:48 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategic Adversaries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Abraham Accords]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ayatollah Khamenei]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=28229</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas and the ongoing war in Gaza, provide Iran with a unique opportunity to advance its foreign policy interests in the Middle East. With the signing of the Abraham Accords, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates normalised relations and established diplomatic ties with Israel. This [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/irans-multidimensional-strategy/">Iran’s Multidimensional Strategy</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas and the ongoing war in Gaza, provide Iran with a unique opportunity to advance its foreign policy interests in the Middle East. With the signing of the <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-abraham-accords/">Abraham Accords</a>, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates normalised relations and established diplomatic ties with Israel. This was an immense achievement for Israel and the Sunni Gulf states, who share a common threat emanating from Iran’s assertive regional policies.</p>
<p>In March 2023 Azerbaijan finally <a href="https://www.gov.il/en/pages/azerbaijan-to-open-embassy-in-israel-today-29-mar-2023">opened its embassy</a> in Israel, despite establishing bilateral relations in 1992. Baku opted to open its embassy in Tel Aviv after restoring its territorial integrity. The next month, in April 2023, Israel inaugurated its <a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-739858">embassy in Ashgabat</a>, Turkmenistan, making it the closest Israeli embassy to Iran, just 17 km from the Iranian border. Iran followed all these diplomatic moves with annoyance and concern.</p>
<p><a href="https://agsiw.org/israeli-strategies-to-preserve-and-expand-the-abraham-accords/">Normalization of Saudi-Israeli</a> relations was also widely discussed as an extension of the Abraham Accords. Momentum similarly grew in 2022 for Israel and Turkey to <a href="https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/turkey-israel-agree-to-reenergize-bilateral-ties-in-rare-visit">normalize</a> their strained relations. At the next meeting between <a href="https://www.gov.il/en/pages/event-erdogan200923">Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan</a>, they agreed to continue developing bilateral relations and to pay official visits to each other.</p>
<p>Azerbaijan’s initiative to set a new trilateral format for cooperation between <a href="https://report.az/en/foreign-politics/hikmat-hajiyev-azerbaijan-suggests-trilateral-format-of-cooperation-with-israel-and-turkiye/">Azerbaijan, Israel, and Turkey</a> was advancing rapidly in an environment of geopolitical uncertainty for Tehran. The October 7, 2023, attack on Israel gave Iran the chance to derail possible Saudi-Israeli and Turkish-Israeli ties and stop the Azerbaijani initiative for trilateral cooperation in its tracks.</p>
<p>Tehran seized the opportunity of the war in Gaza to pursue its grand, multidimensional strategy. It is using economic means, via a set of coercive actions, to achieve foreign policy objectives, something widely overlooked. Iran’s multidimensional strategy seeks to achieve multiple goals simultaneously, in both the Middle East and South Caucasus.</p>
<p>Iranian strategy prioritizes using economic means to isolate Israel by derailing its relations with Turkey, Azerbaijan, and the Gulf Arab states. Iran’s subtle, calculated, approach also intends to inflict an economic blow on Azerbaijan, Israel, and Turkey, which makes substantial revenue from the export of oil via Turkey to Israel.</p>
<p>Considering the global nature of the modern economy, economic power plays a significant role in shaping geopolitical outcomes and foreign policy. In this case, Iran’s usage of political, diplomatic, and media instruments, as well as its regional proxies like the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/bab-al-mandab-shipping-lane-target-israel-fights-hamas-2023-12-12/">Houthis in Yemen</a>, merits analysis. The use of economic means to shape geopolitical outcomes and achieve foreign policy goals is the cornerstone of Iran’s multidimensional strategy. Iran does not possess the necessary economic means, by itself. However, the Islamic Republic does possess significant geopolitical assets in the form of proxy groups and diplomatic and media resources, which it is using to hinder or shut down global navigation and prevent the flow of strategic commodities to Israel.</p>
<p>The late Iranian foreign minister, Amir Abdollahian, called on Muslim-majority countries to impose <a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231019-iran-calls-for-imposing-oil-embargo-on-israel-expelling-its-envoys/">an oil embargo on Israel</a> and expel its envoys in October 2023. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/1/irans-khamenei-calls-upon-muslim-countries-to-boycott-israel-over-gaza-war">called on Muslim countries to cease trade</a>, particularly food and oil with Israel, the following month. Hasan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, followed Ayatollah Khamenei’s call and appealed to Arab and Islamic countries <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/11/03/is-hizbullah-stepping-back-from-the-brink-of-war">to impose an oil embargo</a> on Israel.</p>
<p>The call for an economic boycott of Israel by Muslim-majority states gives an insight into Iran’s multidimensional strategy. The late Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, also <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/at-arab-islamic-summit-iran-s-raisi-calls-for-boycotting-prosecuting-israel-over-gaza-war/3051185">reiterated Ayatollah Khamenei’s call for a boycott of Israel</a> at the Arab-Islamic Summit in Riyadh in November 2023. President Raisi argued that Islamic countries must cut diplomatic relations as well as refuse to buy Israeli goods, echoing Khamenei’s call. Weeks after his call for an economic boycott, Ayatollah Khamenei had urged Muslim countries that have diplomatic relations with Israel <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-khamenei-urges-muslim-states-cut-political-ties-with-israel-limited-period-2023-11-19/">to halt diplomatic ties</a> for a limited period. In January 2024 Ayatollah Khamenei <a href="https://www.iranintl.com/en/202401233494">repeated his call for a total blockade of Israel</a> by Muslim countries.</p>
<p>The official rhetoric of Iran’s leaders clearly shows Tehran’s multidimensional strategy of using the war in Gaza to isolate Israel economically, impose an oil embargo, destroy economic and diplomatic ties between Israel and Muslim-majority countries, and position Iran as a major geopolitical force in the region. To implement this strategy Iran has employed coercive media propaganda against many countries, including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. <a href="https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/492711/Turkey-s-support-for-Gaza-heartwarming-but-nowhere-near-enough">Iranian media</a> has intensified criticism of Turkey for its trade and economic ties with Israel and Azerbaijan for oil exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which meet 40 percent of Israel’s demand for crude oil.</p>
<p>Iranian media has also targeted Turkish president Erdoğan for not cutting trade relations with Israel, which was actively used within Turkey by Islamist circles including the leader of the Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP), Fatih Erbakan, in recent local elections. The New Welfare Party, which sympathizes with Iran, managed to get 6.1 percent of the nationwide vote—contributing to <a href="https://www.turkishminute.com/2024/04/05/islamist-party-leader-slammed-erdogan-over-boron-shipment-israel/">Erdoğan’s first election loss in decades</a>. When Erdoğan’s ruling party suffered the election setback, he <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68945380#:~:text=Turkey%20has%20suspended%20all%20trade,flow%22%20of%20aid%20into%20Gaza">launched economic measures against Israel</a>, halting trade. Iranian media propaganda and the active shaping of the narrative in the run-up to elections in Turkey yielded a significant result by creating strain in diplomatic and economic relations between Turkey and Israel. The multidimensional Iranian strategy of achieving goals in multiple theatres has so far succeeded in two places: Turkey and Yemen. Using the Houthis to disrupt maritime shipping, Iran positioned itself as a key player that can shut down trade not only in the Persian Gulf but also in the <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/houthi-red-sea-attacks-impose-economic-sanctions-israels-backers-0">Bab al Mandab Strait</a>.</p>
<p>Iran’s strategy of using economic means to achieve its goals also entails containing and weakening Azerbaijan by inflicting significant revenue losses. Not only does Azerbaijan meet nearly 40 percent of Israel’s demand for crude oil, Azerbaijan’s state energy giant SOCAR alongside British Petroleum and Israel’s NewMed were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/israel-awards-gas-exploration-licences-eni-bp-four-others-2023-10-29/">awarded a license to explore</a> an area to the north of Israel’s Leviathan gas field in the Eastern Mediterranean. The strong bilateral and multifaceted relations between Israel and Azerbaijan have long been a primary concern for the Iranian establishment. The military-technical partnership between Israel and Azerbaijan helped Baku boost its national security and defense, as well as to retake control of its territory from occupying Armenian forces. Changes in the realities of South Caucasus politics since 2020 are <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2023/11/13/israel-azerbaijan-energy-deal-strengthens-strategic-partnership/">a security concern for Tehran</a>. Constant <a href="https://basirat.ir/fa/news/352650/%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AE%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87%E2%80%8C%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%DB%8C%D9%84%DB%8C-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%DA%A9%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%DA%A9%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%85%DB%8C%E2%80%8C%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF">Iranian media attacks</a> against the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline are part of the multidimensional Iranian strategy.</p>
<p>Better understanding Iran’s strategy is important if the United States desires to counter those efforts. Iran’s use of hybrid warfare, proxies, media propaganda, and blackmail—to force neighboring countries to cut economic and diplomatic ties with Israel—is having some success but is not in the interest of the region. Iran’s primary goal is to derail the normalisation process under the Arab-Israeli Abraham Accords; to strain Turkish-Israeli diplomatic and economic ties; to damage Azerbaijan’s independence by targeting its primary source of revenue; to prevent the emergence of the Azerbaijan-Israel-Turkey trilateral cooperation; and to prevent further diplomatic normalisation of relations between Israel and Muslim-majority states. It is only through understanding Iranian efforts that the United States, Israel, and the larger region can prevent Iran’s success.</p>
<p><em>Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of City, University of London. His research area covers the South Caucasus and Iran. Views expressed in this article are the author’s own. </em></p>
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<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/irans-multidimensional-strategy/">Iran’s Multidimensional Strategy</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>The Middle East Needs an Anti-Iran Alliance</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/the-middle-east-needs-an-anti-iran-alliance/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mohamed El Doh]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Jun 2024 12:11:49 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=27991</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>In the Middle East, the necessity for an anti-Iran alliance is apparent. Iran’s aggressive foreign policy, support for terrorism, and pursuit of nuclear capabilities continue to pose a significant threat to regional stability and global security. As a result, the formation of a united front comprising key Middle Eastern nations and the West, led by [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/the-middle-east-needs-an-anti-iran-alliance/">The Middle East Needs an Anti-Iran Alliance</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the Middle East, the necessity for an anti-Iran alliance is apparent. Iran’s aggressive foreign policy, support for terrorism, and pursuit of nuclear capabilities continue to pose a significant threat to regional stability and global security. As a result, the formation of a united front comprising key Middle Eastern nations and the West, led by the United States, is critical in deterring Iran, countering its destabilizing behavior, and promoting peace in the region.</p>
<p>The recent helicopter accident, which claimed the lives of Iran’s president and foreign minister, is expected to have an adverse effect on the region soon. The incident is already drawing international attention, with many countries closely evaluating the potential implications for regional security. The incident also occurred in an already geopolitically tense context after a month of confrontation with Israel.</p>
<p>The death of Iran’s foreign minister, Amir Abdollahian, will complicate Iran’s foreign policy, international relations, and diplomatic engagements. Abdollahian was instrumental in critical negotiations, including the deal with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) that was brokered by China in February–March 2023 and indirect talks with the United States via Oman, regarding key topics related to regional <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-held-indirect-talks-with-iran-in-oman-to-prevent-regional-escalation/">escalation</a> in the Middle East—including Yemen’s Houthi attacks as well as Iran’s nuclear developments. Anticipating the development of these discussions is crucial, as it is likely to impact Iran’s foreign policy and engagements.</p>
<p>The death of Iran’s president, Ibrahim Raissi, also poses a test for Iran’s internal stability and order. Middle East instability since October 7, 2023, makes this incident even more significant. Thus, how events in Iran unfold in the coming weeks have domestic and regional consequences, including the direction of Iran’s proxies in the region. Conspiracy theories are circulating in Iran as to who was responsible for the crash.</p>
<p>Even though Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, is the country’s actual ruler and the presidential position has limited authority, Raissi’s death thrusts Iran into an uncertain future. Experts believe that Raissi, 63, was preparing to succeed the 85-year-old supreme leader. They also believe that Raissi and Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, are potential successors to the supreme leader. This suggests that Mojtaba, known for his <a href="https://epc.ae/en/details/featured/another-power-struggle-in-iran-can-mojtaba-khamenei-succeed-his-father-">strong</a> ties to Iran’s military and intelligence services, as well as to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is a strong contender.</p>
<p>Iran’s constitution mandates the temporary assumption of the presidential role by Mohamed Mokhber, the first vice president, and the holding of elections within 50 days. Regardless of the timing and identity of Iran’s next president, the informally chosen successor to the supreme leader is likely to delay such elections. The unpredictability of the country’s overall course poses a significant risk and threat to the region, as there is a possibility that Iran may adopt a more assertive stance in response to recent events, thereby demonstrating its power to the international community. Of course, the actions of its proxies in the region and advancements in the nuclear program already signal this, which necessitates an anti-Iran alliance.</p>
<p>The absence of an anti-Iran alliance is perhaps explained by what political scientist Randall Schweller <a href="https://academic.oup.com/isagsq/article/3/2/ksad023/7142939">referred</a> to as “under-balancing” or the inability or unwillingness of nations to form the kind of blocking alliances that the balance of power theory would predict. This also sheds light on why states facing threats fail to recognize present dangers and do not react or respond except in a minimal way.</p>
<p>Iran appears to be the winner of recent escalations. Maritime safety in the Red Sea is low because of Houthi militias. Iran is also the most influential player in Iraqi politics and controls Shiite militias. Iranian influence in Syria is one of the main reasons Syrian autocrat Bashar al-Assad remains in power. Furthermore, in Lebanon, Iran-controlled Hezbollah remains the dominant force in Lebanese politics and probably the main first line of defense for Iran in the region.</p>
<p>Iran’s continued support for militant groups across the Middle East amplify the urgency of an anti-Iran alliance. The Iranian regime already has a long history of providing financial, military, and logistical assistance to terrorist organizations. These groups not only undermine the sovereignty of their host countries, but they generate violence, chaos, and instability. For example, Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden over the past few months have significantly impacted maritime safety. In this regard, the US <a href="https://apnews.com/article/un-yemen-iran-weapons-houthis-attacks-shipping-ff551c53db019b91bd02684f66f7b29f#:~:text=UNITED%20NATIONS%20(AP)%20—%20The,the%20Red%20Sea%20and%20elsewhere.">called</a> on Iran to halt “unprecedented weapons” transfers to the Houthis, which enables the attacks. Iran’s history of provocations along the Strait of Hurmuz also poses a threat to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations if regional tensions continue to escalate. Iran’s drone <a href="https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/irans-uav-diplomacy-resonating-in-conflicts-in-mena-and/">diplomacy</a> is also proving successful, with many of its attack drone capabilities playing a central role in different fights, including the Russia-Ukraine war and Yemen’s Houthi maritime attacks.</p>
<p>The regime’s expansionist agenda and support for proxy groups are already destabilizing the fragile balance of power in the Middle East. Iran’s involvement in conflicts in Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen fuel sectarian tensions and prolonged civilian suffering. However, Iran’s growing empowerment of proxy groups in these nations presents a serious threat to other neighboring nations, particularly the Arab countries that Iran views as US allies.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/jordan-foils-arms-plot-kingdom-caught-iran-israel-shadow-war-2024-05-15/">reports</a>, Jordan successfully thwarted a suspected plot by Iran-backed militias to smuggle weapons from Syria into Jordan for sabotage purposes. On another front, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen continued to launch <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-air-defences-destroy-houthi-drones-state-tv-2022-03-25/">attacks</a> against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) until 2022. Even though China mediated a between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, ongoing developments in the Middle East, fueled by the Gaza war and the actions of Iran’s proxy groups, are testing China’s influence in the region and the viability of the KSA-Iran deal. Although the Iran-backed Houthis warned, in a statement, that KSA would be a target if it supported the US-led strikes on their locations, the recent events, particularly the death of Iran’s president and foreign minister, will likely have an impact on the development of KSA-Iran relations.</p>
<p>Furthermore, Iran’s nuclear ambitions continue to present a serious threat to regional and global security. Despite international efforts to curtail its nuclear program over the past decade, Iran continues to expand its nuclear capabilities, raising concerns about the high possibility the regime will field nuclear weapons. Following his recent visit to Iran, Rafael Grossi, the director general of the United Nations Nuclear Agency, declared that Iran has never been closer to achieving a nuclear bomb, estimating a matter of weeks if Iran’s ruler decides to proceed in this direction.</p>
<p>Kamal Kharrazi, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said that Iran would have no choice but to modify its nuclear doctrine if Israel threatened its nuclear facilities or the regime’s very existence. However, it is safe to assume that Iran is using the narrative of Israel and the Gaza war, along with Arab sentiment, to advance its nuclear program.</p>
<p>Several key Arab states continued to encourage Washington to help manage Middle East security and contain Iran’s destabilizing activities on different fronts in order to prevent a broader regional war. Thus, it is expected that any anti-Iran alliance is led by the United States. KSA is already close to a deal on a bilateral <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-saudis-close-deal-bilateral-agreement-white-house-2024-05-20/">defense</a> pact with the US. The US and UAE also <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3760788/us-and-uae-conduct-joint-military-dialogue/">continue</a> to work on advancing their bilateral defense relationship, and during the 34th US-Egypt Military Cooperation Committee (MCC), both sides <a href="https://eg.usembassy.gov/readout-of-34th-u-s-egyptian-military-cooperation-committee-mcc-october-30-2023/">agreed</a> on the importance of advancing American-Egyptian military cooperation through joint training, exercises, and a strong desire to expand regional cooperation and security.</p>
<p>Arab nations clearly share Israel’s concerns and threat perception about Iran’s regional activities, particularly its growing influence through proxies. This serves as an area of dialogue, potentially reducing regional Arab tensions stemming from the ongoing Gaza war. Despite the perception of Iran as a threat, many Arab states remain reluctant to engage in direct confrontation with it. This is understandable since economic development projects fundamentally require regional peace. Regional peace, however, is not achieved without an anti-Iran alliance with a proper level of deterrence that is designed to at least halt, if not degrade, Iran’s activities and influence.</p>
<p>A Middle East Security Alliance (MESA), later dubbed by the media “Arab NATO,” was first announced during former US President Donald Trump’s visit to KSA in 2017. The announcement described MESA as an alliance that contributes to peace and security in the region and the world, encompassing all GCC states, Egypt, Jordan, and the US. Even though nothing has progressed in this proposal since then, ongoing developments in the Middle East do call for the need to revive such a proposal, with an emphasis on countering Iran.</p>
<p>By forming an anti-Iran alliance, countries in the region, in partnership with the US, can work together to address challenges as they emerge and anticipate different courses of action. Curbing the influence of Iran’s proxies and disrupting Iran’s support networks should remain a common and near-term goal for the international community.</p>
<p>Iran’s nuclear program also remains a core threat to the region and the world. A nuclear-armed Iran undoubtedly destabilizes the delicate balance of power in the region and heightens the risk of a catastrophic conflict with Israel as well as neighboring Arab states. Therefore, by forging an anti-Iran alliance, countries can coordinate efforts on multiple fronts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and avert a nuclear crisis in the Middle East.</p>
<p>Moreover, Iran’s aggressive foreign policy and expansionist activities exacerbate tensions in the region. Iran’s intervention in countries such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen undermine efforts toward peace and reconciliation, underscoring the imperative need to establish an anti-Iran alliance. Only coordinated action can effectively mitigate the threats emanating from Iran, paving the way for a more peaceful Middle East.</p>
<p><em>Mohamed El Doh is a business development and consulting professional in the defense and security sector. Mohamed holds a doctorate degree from Grenoble École de Management, France, an MBA from the European Union Business School, Spain, and an Advanced Certificate in Counterterrorism Studies from the University of St Andrews, UK. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.</em></p>
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