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	<title>Topic:Russia-Ukraine war &#8212; Global Security Review %</title>
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		<title>Assessing the Credibility of Manned Platforms in Contemporary Drone-Rich Combat Environment</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/assessing-the-credibility-of-manned-platforms-in-contemporary-drone-rich-combat-environment/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/assessing-the-credibility-of-manned-platforms-in-contemporary-drone-rich-combat-environment/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ahmad Ibrahim]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:14:19 +0000</pubDate>
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		<category><![CDATA[and concepts discussed throughout the paper. The keywords below capture the core topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[and evolving strategies highlighted in the document.manned platforms]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[I approached your request by analyzing the main themes]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=32615</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Published: April 23, 2026 Proliferation of unmanned systems in modern warfare has popularized the notion that traditional platforms have reached the end of their operational relevance. Particularly, the Russia-Ukraine war has deepened the perception that small, agile, and inexpensive drones have rendered manned platforms in land, air, and sea domain obsolete. This argument gains credibility [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/assessing-the-credibility-of-manned-platforms-in-contemporary-drone-rich-combat-environment/">Assessing the Credibility of Manned Platforms in Contemporary Drone-Rich Combat Environment</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Published: April 23, 2026</em></p>
<p>Proliferation of unmanned systems in modern warfare has popularized the notion that traditional platforms have reached the end of their operational relevance. Particularly, the Russia-Ukraine war has deepened the perception that small, agile, and inexpensive drones have rendered manned platforms in land, air, and sea domain obsolete.</p>
<p>This argument gains credibility while assessing drones’ performance against <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/20/world/europe/tanks-ukraine-drones-abrams.html#:~:text=So%20are%20tanks%20obsolete?,lethal%20weapon%20in%20ground%20warfare.&amp;text=But%20he%20added%20that%20the,Thomas%20Gibbons%2DNeff%20contributed%20reporting.">manned armored vehicles</a> which are now <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2022/02/watch-boris-johnson-claimed-the-days-of-big-tank-battles-in-europe-were-over">routinely labelled</a> as outdated systems against drone-enabled precision strikes. Yet, what is often depicted in the media is only one side of the coin. Drones often fail to find targets, are intercepted, or manage to hit their target, thus not achieving intended results. Despite proliferation of first-person view (FPV) drones, armored vehicles continue to play a vital role in maneuver warfare and protected mobility. Modern armor strategies have evolved to include combined arms and dispersion rather than mass for increasing survivability and combat efficiency. In the Russia-Ukraine war, several <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/are-tanks-obsolete-on-modern-battlefield-not-exactly-sa-021226">rudimentary measures</a> like installation of cope cages atop turrets, have been implemented by both militaries to enhance the survivability rate of tanks against kamikaze drones. Vehicle mounted <a href="https://cepa.org/article/the-era-of-the-cautious-tank/">jammers</a> have also shown promising results. Defensive technologies, like active protection systems (APS) and electronic countermeasures (ECM), have proven their efficiency against FPV drones. Thus, it can be argued that drones have not turned armored vehicles obsolete; they have forced them to evolve into more refined systems.</p>
<p>Similarly, in the aerial domain, many analysts perceive unmanned aerial systems (UAS) as <a href="https://insidefpv.com/blogs/blogs/drones-vs-traditional-air-power-a-cost-effective-alternative?srsltid=AfmBOooNnjAILgfsJl-1ToeY9xoM5SzrM8nUFh76C5ocJlV2k1adUv-P">cost effective alternative</a> vis-à-vis manned aircraft. Yes, UASs have shown impressive evolution. From dropping laser-guided bombs (LGBs) to firing <a href="https://baykartech.com/en/press/turkiye-successfully-test-fires-mini-intelligent-cruise-missile/">cruise missiles</a>, <a href="https://www.twz.com/air/turkeys-fighter-like-kizilelma-drone-shot-down-aerial-target-with-radar-guided-missile">air-to-air missiles</a>, <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/event-news/sea-air-space-2025/2025/04/anduril-unveils-copperhead-m-a-torpedo-designed-specifically-for-drones/">torpedo</a>, and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/09/17/russian-dolls-fpv-drone-carrying-drones-are-now-in-action-in-ukraine/">even smaller drones</a>, drones have come a long way in changing warfare. Increasingly, drones have pushed manned aircraft aside as a more efficient option for operational engagement. In Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan <a href="https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/drones-in-the-nagorno-karabakh-war-analyzing-the-data/">innovatively employed</a> aerial drones to expose Armenian air-defenses’ positions making them vulnerable to subsequent Azerbaijan’s targeted strikes. This unique use of drones as a crucial component of SEAD/DEAD (Suppression &amp; Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses) kill chain marked a watershed moment in modern warfare.</p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://insidefpv.com/blogs/blogs/drones-vs-traditional-air-power-a-cost-effective-alternative?srsltid=AfmBOooNnjAILgfsJl-1ToeY9xoM5SzrM8nUFh76C5ocJlV2k1adUv-P">inherent limitations</a> of drones are obvious too. UASs are more susceptibility to electronic warfare (EW) disruption <strong>and</strong> have unproven records in complex battlespace with dynamics rules of engagement (ROEs). Claims that unmanned systems will soon replace fighter jets overlook the enduring advantages of human decision-making in contested and escalation-sensitive environments. Manned aircraft provide operational flexibility and command judgment that are yet to be replicated through automation alone. The developmental trajectory suggests that instead of perceiving UAVs as one-one-one substitute for piloted aircraft, the future lies in Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) where manned aircraft will serve as command nodes while accompanied unmanned systems will provide mass, persistence, and attainability.</p>
<p>In the naval domain, the successfully employment of kamikaze surface and aerial drones by Ukraine in the Black Sea conflict is now frequently cited as an indicator that large surface combatants will soon turn into relics of past. Besides <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/these-are-most-important-russian-ships-destroyed-by-ukraine/">sinking multiple Russian warships</a> in the Black Sea, Ukraine has even damaged a Russian Kilo class submarine stationed at Novorossiysk harbor using an <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/15/europe/ukraine-underwater-drone-submarine-novorossiysk-russia-intl">underwater suicide drone</a>. The Russian Black Sea Fleet, despite having overwhelming superiority over Ukrainian counterpart, has failed to establish sea-control in the Black Sea primarily due to remarkable performance of Ukrainian naval drones.</p>
<p>Similarly, in the Red Sea crisis, the Houthis’ rudimentary drones have challenged the operational persistence of Western naval powers. Kamikaze drones have compelled <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/23/us-warship-cruising-red-sea-shoots-down-attack-drones-fired-from-yemen">American</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68122944">British</a>, <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231210-french-frigate-downs-drones-over-red-sea-military">French</a>, and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/german-warship-part-eu-red-sea-mission-shoots-down-two-drones-2024-02-28/">German</a> warships to deplete expensive air-defense missiles, which in some cases resulted in <a href="https://www.twz.com/news-features/navy-warships-have-to-leave-the-red-sea-fight-for-weeks-to-reload-their-missiles-navy-secretary-says">pre-mature withdrawal</a>. Close-in Weapon Systems (CIWS) is usually considered a potent point of defense against all types of aerial threats in the maritime domain. However, both gun-based and missile-based CIWS have limited magazine capacity and engagement range. This suggests that against a more capable adversary, drone swarms can saturate warships’ defenses and can cause mission-kill by damaging critical instruments onboard, rendering them inoperable for extended time duration.</p>
<p>Although naval drones have added an additional layer of threat for warships, they do not, in themselves, render them obsolete. Novel defensive capabilities for countering drone threats are already in the developmental phase. Few systems have been deployed and evaluated in real combat. For example, on 03 March 2024, an Italian <em>Andrea Doria</em> class destroyer <a href="https://www.twz.com/sea/italian-destroyer-guns-down-houthi-drone-with-76mm-super-rapid-cannon">shot down</a> an incoming kamikaze drone threat in Red Sea using <a href="https://www.leonardo.com/en/press-release-detail/-/detail/the-strales-76mm-system-with-dart-guided-ammunition">DART projectiles</a> fired from 76mm deck gun, a move far more economically feasible than air-to-surface missile. Similarly, <a href="https://www.twz.com/sea/uss-preble-used-helios-laser-to-zap-four-drones-in-expanding-testing">high-energy lasers (HELs)</a> onboard warships are being tested for countering drones. Besides kinetic defensive application, <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/12/french-navy-counters-uav-for-the-first-time-thanks-to-jamming-solution/">soft-kill measures</a> such as jammers and decoy systems are also emerging as critical components of warships defensive suite.</p>
<p>In addition, the Black Sea and the Red Sea are enclosed bodies of water, offering limited operational space for naval forces and providing tactical advantage to drone-based asymmetric tactics. In blue waters, however, the effectiveness of such drones would diminish considerably. In open seas, it is unlikely that even mass formations of drones would be able to penetrate modern naval armadas. Although suicide drones can be used in formation with cruise and ballistic missiles to <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/at-least-50-iranian-missiles-hit-israel-during-12-day-conflict/3613692">outclass adversary air-defenses</a>, but repeating such a feat against time-sensitive and well protected high-value naval ships would be a very challenging undertaking. Thus, it can be argued that sea drones can be employed as enablers or force-multipliers in conjunction with other systems, but not as decisive instruments of naval warfare.</p>
<p>The future of warfare will not be defined by the triumph of drones over manned platforms. Today, drones have turned into a potent tool of warfare and are also an integral part of the kill-chain of modern militaries around the globe. However, limitations cannot be ignored. In practice, drones work less as independent war-winning weapons but are enablers and force-multipliers. In the age of viral narratives and simplified conclusions, misperceptions regarding military technologies are bound to persist. No single military system determines the outcome of war, and no single innovation renders all others irrelevant. Military power is cumulative and contextual.</p>
<p><em>Ahmad Ibrahim is a Research Associate at Maritime Centre of Excellence (MCE), Pakistan Navy War College (PNWC), Lahore. The views of the author are his own.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Assessing-the-Credibility-of-Manned-Platforms-in-Contemporary-Drone-Rich-Combat-Environment.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-32606" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-Download-Button26.png" alt="" width="216" height="60" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-Download-Button26.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-Download-Button26-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 216px) 100vw, 216px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/assessing-the-credibility-of-manned-platforms-in-contemporary-drone-rich-combat-environment/">Assessing the Credibility of Manned Platforms in Contemporary Drone-Rich Combat Environment</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Showcases the Limits of Nuclear Deterrence</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/the-russia-ukraine-conflict-showcases-the-limits-of-nuclear-deterrence/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/the-russia-ukraine-conflict-showcases-the-limits-of-nuclear-deterrence/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Anshu Kumar]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Oct 2025 11:55:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=31685</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Russia’s potential use of nuclear weapons early in the Ukraine conflict presents an interesting dilemma. For many analysts, this conflict exemplifies the limits of nuclear deterrence, an issue worth exploring. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany was one of Russia’s closest economic partners. At the outset of the war, Germany was criticized for its [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/the-russia-ukraine-conflict-showcases-the-limits-of-nuclear-deterrence/">The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Showcases the Limits of Nuclear Deterrence</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Russia’s potential use of nuclear weapons early in the Ukraine conflict presents an interesting dilemma. For many analysts, this conflict exemplifies the limits of nuclear deterrence, an issue worth exploring.</p>
<p>Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany was one of Russia’s closest economic partners. At the outset of the war, Germany was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-offers-ukraine-helmets-draws-kyiv-mayors-ire-2022-01-26/">criticized</a> for its hesitant offer to Ukraine of 5,000 military helmets, at a time when other European states, especially the Baltic nations, were offering weapons and heavy military equipment to defend against the Russian invasion.</p>
<p>This hesitancy had two facets. First, the belief that military aid would escalate the war to unmanageable levels. Second, the fear that Russia could easily achieve its military objectives. In such a case, it was unwise for Germany to risk its economic interests, particularly its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas.</p>
<p>However, Germany, later, began supplying <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-which-weapons-is-germany-supplying/a-66723828">weapons</a> and other military aid to Ukraine under domestic and international pressures. <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-germany-still-blocking-arms-supplies/">Later</a>, Germany even supplied heavy <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64391272">military equipment</a> to Ukraine. As of August 2025, Germany <a href="https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/laenderinformationen/ukraine-node/ukraine-solidarity-2513994">is</a> one of the largest suppliers of military aid, amounting to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/germany-nato-ukraine-support-military-equipment-ecf467b892843343863727651e2982ca">$47 billion</a> worth. This includes air-defense systems, advanced drones, and heavy artillery. German action illustrates how incremental support erodes Russia’s nuclear red lines.</p>
<p><strong>Incremental Steps Eroding the Threshold</strong><strong> </strong></p>
<p>In the Russian conceptualization of deterrence, strategic deterrence (<a href="https://www.sup.org/books/politics/russian-way-deterrence">strategicheskoye sderzhivaniye</a>), both nuclear and conventional deterrence merge into one holistically integrated framework. The threat of or actual use of nuclear weapons would deter a conventional attack on Russia, help achieve military objectives, prevent third parties from entering a war, and help de-escalate a war. <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/politics/russian-way-deterrence">In the 1990s</a>, when Russia fielded a conventionally inferior armed force, it relied primarily on nuclear deterrence for its security.</p>
<p>However, a nuclear-deterrence-focused security strategy does not consider the erosion of thresholds owing to incremental changes during war (i.e., incremental changes test interwar and intrawar deterrence). After Pakistan became a nuclear power, Pakistan employed sub-threshold tactics (terrorism) against India, assuming that the fear of mutual nuclear vulnerability would prevent India from using kinetic means in retaliation. However, this approach failed when India employed conventional force against Pakistan in 2016, 2019, and, more prominently, in <em>Operation Sindoor</em> (2025). Similarly, Ukraine challenged Russia with its aggressive attacks in response to Russian invasion.</p>
<p>Russia’s <a href="http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1434131/">updated nuclear doctrine</a> (2024) brought the threshold of nuclear employment to an even lower level than earlier doctrine. This <a href="http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1434131/">includes</a> “actions by an adversary affecting elements of critically important state or military infrastructure” and “the massive launch […] of air and space attacks means (strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, unmanned, hypersonic and other aerial vehicles).”</p>
<p>Ukraine’s <em>Operation Spyder Web</em> crossed these “nuclear thresholds” set in the 2024 doctrine. Russia’s numerous threats of tactical nuclear weapons use are not taken seriously by Europe any longer. This creates a stability-instability paradox where “conventional balances <a href="https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/99913/RP%20No%2004.pdf">also reduce the credibility</a> of nuclear threats precisely because there is a conventional alternative to resorting to nuclear weapons.”</p>
<p>One of the implications of the stability-instability paradox in international relations is that while nuclear weapons create stability at the strategic level by deterring large-scale war between nuclear-armed states, they increase the likelihood of smaller, limited, or conventional conflicts. This is reinforced in the Ukraine conflict, where Russia simply cannot use nuclear weapons to deter third-party military help to Ukraine and Ukraine’s counteroffensives.</p>
<p>Nuclear deterrence has limitations and does not deter incremental or conventional actions of lower yields. The costs associated with utilizing nuclear weapons for deterring incremental erosion of thresholds is unimaginable. It is difficult for parties in a war to agree upon thresholds. Thus, resorting to conventional attacks rather than escalating to nuclear use becomes more likely, even after crossing stated red lines.<strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>States Should Build on That</strong><strong> </strong></p>
<p>For that matter, those states looking to augment their defence preparedness should invest in conventional deterrence capabilities that can guarantee security. This goes beyond just building missile and air-defense systems of a high calibre. Conventional deterrence is not merely about weapons to deter an adversary.</p>
<p>Military thinking needs to go beyond just inventing new weapons and focus on military strategy. States need to go beyond a one-size-fits-all understanding of deterrence, where all states subscribe to the same benchmarks, variables, and conceptualization of deterrence, and have a shared sense of it. Situating deterrence within the fold of strategic culture, how a state’s strategic culture shapes deterrence, is more helpful. For instance, in contrast to the denial versus punishment typology, Russia uses the <a href="https://www.sup.org/books/politics/russian-way-deterrence">forceful versus non-forceful</a> scheme for deterrence.</p>
<p>States may need to invest in the re-invention of military doctrines, strategy, and thinking to suit current challenges. It is worth studying how adversaries see the concept of deterrence. It confers two advantages. First, it helps one remain prepared for any incremental utilization of force under the fear of mutual destruction. Second, it allows the defender to assess the opponent’s risk-taking appetite and nuclear threshold in a war. This would confer advantages associated with effectively using conventional means.</p>
<p>At the same time, both parties need to be aware of over-extension, where a misguided action can cause a catastrophic nuclear exchange. Since agreeing on the same trigger point is subjective and difficult, states must study the pace, timing, and intensity of the use of non-nuclear forces to effectively achieve objectives without jumping to the nuclear step on an escalatory ladder.</p>
<p>In the end, preventing nuclear war is critical. Thus, understanding thresholds is important. If war is unlikely to end, ensuring it does not escalate to nuclear use should be a top priority.</p>
<p><em>Anshu Kumar is a Junior Research Fellow at the Centre for Russian &amp; Central Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. </em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/The-Russia-Ukraine-War-shows-the-limits-of-Nuclear-Deterrence.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="256" height="71" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 256px) 100vw, 256px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/the-russia-ukraine-conflict-showcases-the-limits-of-nuclear-deterrence/">The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Showcases the Limits of Nuclear Deterrence</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>A Nuclear Iran Would Pose an Existential Threat to the South Caucasus</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/a-nuclear-iran-would-pose-an-existential-threat-to-the-south-caucasus/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/a-nuclear-iran-would-pose-an-existential-threat-to-the-south-caucasus/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rufat Ahmedzade]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Jun 2025 12:03:19 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Allies & Extended Deterrence]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=30958</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu has defined the strategic goal of his country’s Operation Rising Lion as rolling back the Iranian threat to Israel’s survival. Israel is pounding Iran’s nuclear facilities, IRGC military installations, and the top Iranian military leadership with unprecedented operational accuracy and precision, putting Iran’s nuclear program front and center of the international [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/a-nuclear-iran-would-pose-an-existential-threat-to-the-south-caucasus/">A Nuclear Iran Would Pose an Existential Threat to the South Caucasus</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Israel’s PM Benjamin <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2025/jun/13/netanyahu-announces-launch-of-military-operation-against-iran-video">Netanyahu has defined the strategic goal</a> of his country’s Operation Rising Lion as rolling back the Iranian threat to Israel’s survival. <a href="https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-857640">Israel is pounding Iran’s nuclear facilities</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/israel-military-action-iran-coming-days-sources/story?id=122776202">IRGC military installations</a>, and the <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-confirms-irgc-air-force-chief-top-echelon-killed-in-israeli-strike/">top Iranian military leadership</a> with unprecedented operational accuracy and precision, putting Iran’s nuclear program front and center of the international political agenda.</p>
<p>Iran’s Supreme Leader, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp855k42wpko">Ayatollah Khamenei, recently criticized the US proposal for a nuclear deal</a>, while also expressing his doubts about the success of talks. US Special Envoy for the Middle East <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/witkoff-says-us-red-line-in-iran-talks-is-any-ability-for-tehran-to-enrich-uranium/">Steve Witkoff argued that Iran should not be allowed to possess enrichment capabilities</a> and declared such capabilities a red line. <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-05-21/iran-insists-it-wont-stop-enriching-uranium-despite-us-demand">Iran, however, </a>rejected the US demand and stuck to the traditional Iranian narrative that Tehran will continue the enrichment process with or without a deal. The divergent positions of the two sides indicated that the talks were likely to reach a dead end, but this time <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/iran-not-complying-with-nuclear-obligations-for-first-time-in-almost-20-years-says-un-watchdog-13382401">Iran’s nuclear program appeared to have reached a pivotal moment</a>.</p>
<p>As Iran has gained the tools and necessary understanding of enrichment technology, it was unrealistic to think that Iran would completely terminate its enrichment capabilities without the pressure of a war or regime change. Structural realist Kenneth Waltz claimed that if Iran became a nuclear power, nuclear balance and stability vis-à-vis Israel would result. However, it is worth critically reviewing this argument in the context of the South Caucasus region, particularly Azerbaijan, as this challenges Waltz’s notions.</p>
<p><strong>Offensive Realism</strong></p>
<p>In his 2012 article, “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/23218033">Why Iran Should Get The Bomb</a>,” Waltz argued that trying to dissuade a country from seeking a nuclear weapon via sanctions and isolation does not yield a positive result, as the case of North Korea illustrates. Waltz formulated three scenarios regarding Iran’s nuclear program. In the first scenario, Tehran was compelled to end its nuclear program in the face of heightened international sanctions and diplomacy. In the second scenario, Iran developed a breakthrough capability but stopped short of testing a nuclear weapon. In the third scenario, Iran conducted a nuclear test.</p>
<p>It is worth mentioning that in the two decades since Waltz wrote the article, international sanctions and increased diplomatic pressure failed to achieve a meaningful result. Even with the <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9870/">Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran’s enrichment continued</a> in exchange for sanctions relief. The second possible prediction that Iran will acquire the capability but not test a nuclear weapon can be applied to the present. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Iran as <a href="https://www.jns.org/iran-at-threshold-of-a-nuclear-weapon-rubio-tells-hannity/">on the “threshold of a nuclear weapon</a>.”</p>
<p>Waltz’s central argument is based on the assumption that Israel’s nuclear edge in the Middle East creates an imbalance and that Iran’s intention is to provide a nuclear balance, thereby creating deterrence between Israel and Iran. However, considering Iran’s regional policies over the past decades and its foreign policy instruments, such as using surrogates and proxy forces to destabilize its neighbors and the entire region, one can argue that the notion of Iran’s possession of nuclear capabilities would create “stability” through a nuclear balance does not stand scrutiny.</p>
<p>The ideological nature of the Iranian regime alongside its expansionist foreign policy challenges Waltz’s view. <a href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/irans-ballistic-missile-arsenal-still-growing-size-reach-and-accuracy">Iran’s increasing ballistic missile capabilities</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/02/deadly-cheap-and-widespread-how-iran-supplied-drones-are-changing-the-nature-of-warfare">drone production</a> is an indication that the Iranian nuclear program will facilitate Iran’s offensive nuclear capabilities.</p>
<p>Waltz also overlooked the domestic dimension and variables, meaning the imperialist tendencies within Iran, as well as variables in perception, such as the worldview of the Supreme Leader and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders. Moreover, Waltz’s argument that Iran is striving to ensure its own security by possessing nuclear weapons is questionable in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, which <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cze5pkg5jwlo">repeatedly</a> shows that having a nuclear deterrent does not shield a country from attack and loss of territory via conventional means.</p>
<p>While structural realists view the international system as anarchic and see states as striving, at a minimum, to ensure their survival, the offensive realist perspective explains state behavior more accurately. In fact, the anarchic nature of the international system directs states to maximize security, and to do so they maximize relative power. Regardless of specific threats states try to expand power. As security is not guaranteed under the anarchic international system, states maximize power to ensure their security.</p>
<p>As John Mearsheimer <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539078">argues</a>, states maximise their relative power because having military advantage ensures their security. The notion that Iran possessing nuclear weapons is about ensuring Iranian security and creating a nuclear balance fails to address the offensive nature of Iranian foreign and security policies in the region as well as its expansionist approaches.</p>
<p>An offensive realist perspective explains Iran’s nuclear program strategy accordingly, as Iran’s track record and foreign policy instruments show it takes a hegemonic approach in the region to maximize its influence over neighboring countries and increase its relative power. Waltz viewed Iran’s nuclear strategy vis-à-vis Israel, but a nuclear-armed Iran would have a very different geopolitical role in a region like the South Caucasus, sandwiched between two rogue, imperialist regimes—Iran and Russia.</p>
<p>Considering that Iran and Russia are strategic allies that share common geopolitical views of the West and desire to curtail the Westward-looking foreign policies of the South Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan, a nuclear-armed Iran will not create a balance but push regional actors towards Russia against their will—particularly considering that membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is unlikely.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bing.com/search?pglt=929&amp;q=War+and+Change+in+World+Politics&amp;cvid=f51acb150eb94f5b94654c0a13d421e4&amp;gs_lcrp=EgRlZGdlKgYIABBFGDkyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQABhAMgYIAhAAGEAyBggDEAAYQDIGCAQQABhAMgYIBRAAGEAyBggGEAAYQDIGCAcQABhAMgYICBAAGEDSAQgyMTU3ajBqMagCALACAA&amp;FORM=ANNTA1&amp;PC=LGTS">According to</a> Robert Gilpin, “As the power of a state increases, it seeks to extend its territorial control, its political influence, and/or its domination of the international economy.” Thus, a nuclear-armed Iran would engage in solidifying and maximizing its geopolitical goals and interests in its neighboring countries, creating more instability.</p>
<p><strong>Iran’s Nuclear Programs and the Region</strong></p>
<p>The lessons of Russia’s imperialist war of aggression against Ukraine and Russian official narratives such as the rejection of Ukrainian identity and statehood are proof that Iran’s nuclear program, and potential weaponization of it, pose an existential security risk to Azerbaijan as an independent country and the South Caucasus region, in general. Iranian imperial ambitions, coupled with a grudge against Azerbaijani independence, puts the country’s security at risk.</p>
<p>Azerbaijan’s close ally Turkey, which does not possess nuclear weapons, cannot serve as a counterweight for a nuclear Iran. Iran prefers a weak Azerbaijan on its northern border.</p>
<p>Iran also prefers to use Azerbaijan’s neighbor, Armenia, against Baku. A nuclear Iran might further embolden Armenian revanchist circles to seek a change in the status quo, which could start another war.</p>
<p>A nuclear-armed Iran may also increase its efforts to destabilise Azerbaijan via proxy groups, such as the Huseyniyyun Brigade, as Tehran attempts to curtail Azerbaijan’s independent foreign policy. However, a nuclear deal may still allow Iran to use the lifting of sanctions to increase its political and economic influence in Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus via soft power and proxies.</p>
<p>Thus, a nuclear agreement with the United States and fielding nuclear weapons both pose potential risks. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/iran-parliament-approves-strategic-pact-with-russia-2025-05-21/">Iran-Russia 20-year strategic pact</a>, which was signed recently, also points to the fact that both Moscow and Tehran will further cooperate and stand against a Western role in the region. Increasing Iranian-Russian military cooperation is also a point of concern. Both countries are heavily sanctioned internationally, but they do not pose an obstacle to the growing trade and military ties between the two states.</p>
<p>Azerbaijan’s position as a link between the West and Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran, is an irritant in Moscow and Tehran. Iran’s staunch opposition to Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization is evident in its <a href="https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/09/17/irans-resistance-to-the-zangezur-corridor-reflects-its-broader-opposition-to-peace-in-the-south-caucasus/">stance against the Zangezur corridor</a> as Tehran does not want to lose leverage in the South Caucasus as Armenia’s close ally. The facilitation of the <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-supplies-arms-to-armenia-via-iran-corridor/articleshow/102187057.cms?from=mdr">transfer of Indian weapons to Armenia</a> and the <a href="https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/iran-denies-facilitating-transfer-of-russian-arms-to-armenia-2020-9-7-40/">transfer of Russian weapons to Armenia via Iranian soil</a> illustrates the fact that the Iranian regime continues to be a source of destabilization in the region. In short, a nuclear Iran allied with Russia cannot establish a nuclear balance in the South Caucasus region; rather it will increase security risks and pose an existential threat to the independence of Azerbaijan and Georgia.</p>
<p>Contrary to Kenneth Waltz’s argument that a nuclear balance would lead to stability, this analysis suggests it will instead lead to instability—particularly in the South Caucasus. As Russia’s war on Ukraine shows, direct imperialist activities by a nuclear Iran cannot be precluded from the future of a nuclear-armed Iran. In short, a nuclear-armed Iran is bad for the Middle East, the South Caucasus, and the World. It will not bring Kenneth Waltz’s stability.</p>
<p><em>Rufat Ahmadzada </em><em>is a graduate of City University London. His research area covers the South Caucasus and Iran. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/A-Nuclear-Iran-and-the-South-Caucasus.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="223" height="62" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 223px) 100vw, 223px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/a-nuclear-iran-would-pose-an-existential-threat-to-the-south-caucasus/">A Nuclear Iran Would Pose an Existential Threat to the South Caucasus</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>Azerbaijan-Israel Strategic Relationship Proves Its Importance</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/azerbaijan-israel-strategic-relationship-proves-its-importance/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rufat Ahmedzade]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Feb 2025 13:14:52 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=29965</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>With the opening of the Azerbaijani trade office in Israel in 2021 and the embassy in 2023, Azerbaijan-Israel strategic relations reached a new level. The partnership covers a wide range of vital areas, including energy, defence and security, transport, agriculture and the environment, water resources, culture, and advanced technology. Science and education are part of [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/azerbaijan-israel-strategic-relationship-proves-its-importance/">Azerbaijan-Israel Strategic Relationship Proves Its Importance</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the opening of the <a href="https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/azerbaijan-opens-trade-office-in-tel-aviv-30-years-after-forming-ties-675266">Azerbaijani trade office</a> in Israel in 2021 and <a href="https://www.jns.org/azerbaijan-embassy-in-israel-a-catalyst-to-ever-growing-ties/">the embassy in 2023</a>, Azerbaijan-Israel strategic relations reached a new level. The partnership covers a wide range of vital areas, including energy, defence and security, transport, agriculture and the environment, water resources, culture, and advanced technology.</p>
<p>Science and education are part of strategic ties in recent years. The “<a href="https://ednews.net/en/news/society/588950-azerbaijan-israel-sign-program-educational">Program of educational cooperation between the Government of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Government of the State of Israel for the years 2023-2026</a>” forms the basis for developing this vital field in mutual cooperation. As Azerbaijan strives to reform its education system in order to make schools future-ready and sci-tech focused, it benefits greatly from <a href="https://en.ort.org.il/a-unique-collaboration-between-the-ort-israel-and-the-government-of-azerbaijan/">the exchange of teachers and education experts</a> to train and learn from the Israeli experience.</p>
<p>Cooperation on climate change, high tech agriculture, green energy, and water are also part of the educational and scientific ties. Israel’s high-tech economy and agriculture and its experience in green energy and water desalination provide Azerbaijan a unique opportunity to diversify and develop the non-oil sector of its economy.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.aninews.in/news/world/middle-east/first-class-of-israeli-trained-azerbaijani-students-complete-cyber-security-program20230725151523/">Cybersecurity is also part of the educational ties</a> between the countries with staff at the Technion, a public research university based in Haifa, contributing to the training of Azerbaijani students on a cybersecurity program.</p>
<p>Food security with a focus on grain is another new angle in Azerbaijan-Israel ties. Israel’s food security, and specifically its requirement for grain, <a href="https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy/1694457371-israel-signs-grain-deal-with-azerbaijan-uzbekistan-to-ensure-food-security">will be met by Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan</a>, following the disruption to supplies as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. This will be a huge boost to both Israel’s and Azerbaijan’s food security, as Azerbaijan will receive advanced technology from Israel as part of the deal.</p>
<p>The high level of religious tolerance and historical lack of anti-Semitism in Azerbaijan form a strong basis for people-to-people relations between Azerbaijan and Israel. The <a href="https://www.jns.org/visiting-the-mountain-jews-of-azerbaijan-one-the-worlds-last-remaining-shtetls/">village of Qırmızı Qəsəbə</a> (Red Village) in the Quba region of Azerbaijan, home to an old community of Mountain Jews, is believed to be the world’s only all-Jewish village outside Israel and the United States. The <a href="https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/historical-museum-opens-in-azerbaijans-all-jewish-town-2020-2-8-0/">opening of the Mountain Jews Museum</a> in the village is also a testament to the positive role of Azerbaijan in Jewish-Muslim coexistence and the promotion of harmony and tolerance. Azerbaijani Jews form a strong bond between the people of the two countries and their significant presence in Israel also promotes bilateral ties.</p>
<p>An important development in the energy sector, a key part of the strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and Israel, took place in October 2023, when Azerbaijan’s state oil company <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/israel-awards-gas-exploration-licences-eni-bp-four-others-2023-10-29/">SOCAR was granted a gas exploration license</a> alongside British Petroleum and Israel’s NewMed to explore an area north of Israel’s Leviathan gas field in the Mediterranean. This is a significant boost to SOCAR, increasing its role in the world energy market and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2023/11/13/israel-azerbaijan-energy-deal-strengthens-strategic-partnership/">introducing a new aspect to Azerbaijan-Israel energy cooperation</a>. Around 40 percent of Israel’s oil imports come from Azerbaijan.</p>
<p>Diversification of supply and non-reliance on Arab oil has been a key component of Israeli energy security over the years. Azerbaijani oil pumped to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan and transported onwards to world markets forms a major source of revenue for the Azerbaijani budget and, as such, has been crucial in the modernisation of the country’s infrastructure, armed forces, and the large-scale reconstruction in Azerbaijan’s liberated lands.</p>
<p>Azerbaijan’s energy policy forms the backbone of the country’s independent foreign policy. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline bypasses both Russia and Iran and has proved a key asset following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when <a href="https://eurasianet.org/kazakh-oil-exports-across-russia-interrupted-for-fourth-time-this-year">Kazakh oil shipments</a>, for example, most of which pass through Russia, have been disrupted.</p>
<p>Since the Hamas terrorist attacks against Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza, <a href="https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-808681">Iran has singled out the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline as well as Azerbaijan,</a> putting them under pressure to cut off the key crude oil supply to Israel and thereby to damage the basis for Azerbaijan’s independent foreign policy.     Iran launched media propaganda against Azerbaijan. Leftist so-called nongovernmental organizations, financed by Western-donor political figures such as Greta Thunberg and Qatar-financed outlets such as the Middle East Eye, also criticized Azerbaijan.</p>
<p>The attacks reveal the range of political sides that are keen to damage and destroy the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and Azerbaijan’s independent foreign policy. <a href="https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/b0001qy9">Attacks against SOCAR’s HQ in Istanbul</a>, organized by pro-Hamas Islamists and leftists, with the tacit approval of circles within the Turkish government, were also part of the campaign.</p>
<p>Azerbaijan-Israel strategic cooperation, particularly in the energy sector, stood firm in the face of attacks from various circles, geopolitical turbulence, and pressure. The incoming Trump administration should value Baku’s role in the energy security of Israel, the European Union, and Turkey, which are key US allies.</p>
<p>Azerbaijan and Israel developed the defense component of their strategic partnership over the years. Israel is one of the main sources of Azerbaijan’s defense imports and modernization of the armed forces. Azerbaijan made skilful use of Israeli defence products in liberating its lands; most notably, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/azerbaijan-armenia-israel-russia-missile-fired-shot-down">Israeli’s Barak 8 anti-ballistic missile defense system intercepted an Iskander missile</a> fired from Armenia over the capital Baku.</p>
<p><a href="https://report.az/en/karabakh/michael-doran-during-war-israel-rejected-us-request-not-to-sell-weapons-to-azerbaijan/">Israel, too, stood firm in the face of pressure during the war in 2020</a> and did not allow third parties to influence their defense cooperation with Baku. The defense cooperation also came under extensive media attack by pro-Armenia and pro-Iran elements who consider the Azerbaijani-Israeli defense partnership a threat to their interests. Iran feared Azerbaijan’s growing role since Baku’s victory in the Karabakh war and the high-level conduct of its armed forces.</p>
<p>A strong Azerbaijan on its northern border is a nightmare for Iran. Tehran invested heavily for decades to keep Azerbaijan weak, but this failed badly with the restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Azerbaijan-Israel defense cooperation is vital for regional security and the containment of rogue actors such as Iran, which pose an existential security threat to both countries.</p>
<p>With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, Israel and Turkey appear to have inflicted a strategic defeat on Iran. Considering the strained nature of Turkish-Israel relations, due to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan backing Palestinian extremist groups, it is in the interests of both Israel and Turkey not to collide in Syria and to manage the risks.</p>
<p>In this regard, Azerbaijan can play a key role in coordinating and reconciling both Israeli and Turkish interests to avoid confrontation in Syria. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s foreign policy aide <a href="https://turan.az/en/politics/israeli-foreign-minister-received-hikmet-hajiyev-787942">Hikmet Hajiyev visited Israel</a> in December, where he had meetings with high-level Israeli officials including Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and <a href="https://news.az/news/azerbaijani-presidential-aide-meets-with-israels-president">President Isaac Herzog</a>. The trip was <a href="https://caliber.az/en/post/quiet-diplomacy-azerbaijan-s-role-as-mediator-between-turkiye-israel">a positive development in reducing confrontational elements in Turkish-Israeli ties</a> and keeping backchannel communications open.</p>
<p>It is in Azerbaijan’s interests to reconcile or at least reduce the negative atmosphere between its two key strategic partners Israel and Turkey, with <a href="https://www.i24news.tv/ar/%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1/middle-east/1694029041-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%B3-%D8%A3%D8%B0%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B5-%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84">Azerbaijan playing a significant role in the recent normalization process between the two countries</a>. <a href="https://report.az/en/foreign-politics/hikmat-hajiyev-azerbaijan-suggests-trilateral-format-of-cooperation-with-israel-and-turkiye/">Baku also proposed setting up a trilateral regional format</a> for strategic cooperation between Azerbaijan, Israel, and Turkey before the Hamas terrorist attack derailed the fragile Israeli-Turkish ties with Erdoğan siding with Hamas.</p>
<p>Overall, it is worth noting that both Azerbaijan and Israel benefit strategically from their partnership in various fields. The contribution of their relationship to the security environment of the South Caucasus and the Middle East is important as it also opens new opportunities.</p>
<p>The role of Azerbaijan in easing the tension in Turkish-Israel ties becomes more significant with the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Azerbaijan and Israel have both stood firm during geopolitical crises, protecting their strategic ties and blocking third-party attempts to influence them, thereby proving that their partnership is reliable and mutually beneficial.</p>
<p><em>Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of City University London. His research area covers the South Caucasus and Iran. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.</em></p>
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<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/azerbaijan-israel-strategic-relationship-proves-its-importance/">Azerbaijan-Israel Strategic Relationship Proves Its Importance</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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