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		<title>Trumping NATO</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/trumping-nato/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Stephen Cimbala]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2026 12:17:33 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=32629</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Published: April 28, 2026 Amid U.S. involvement in a war against Iran, President Donald J. Trump has decided to double down on previous public expressions of disregard and distrust toward NATO. President Trump has threatened to withdraw the United States from NATO several times since his reelection. His repeated jibes at the alliance have raised [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/trumping-nato/">Trumping NATO</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Published: April 28, 2026</em></p>
<p>Amid U.S. involvement in a war against Iran, President Donald J. Trump has decided to double down on previous public expressions of disregard and distrust toward NATO. President Trump has threatened to withdraw the United States from NATO several times since his reelection. His repeated jibes at the alliance have raised concern among European defense experts and government officials. Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder recently noted that “It’s hard to see how any European country will now be able and willing to trust the United States to come to its defense.” And French President Macron <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2026/04/02/trump-undermining-nato-by-creating-doubt-about-us-commitment-macron-says">indicated on April 2nd</a> that, in his view, U.S. President Trump was undermining NATO through his repeated threats to withdraw from the alliance. Raising new fears of American abandonment on the part of European leaders, Trump, in various interviews and social media posts within a few days, said that the United States “will remember” France’s refusal to assist in the war against Iran; that <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/01/trump-says-hes-considering-pulling-us-out-of-paper-tiger-nato.html?msockid=1510934c8249606b0f658525835f61ab">NATO was a “paper tiger”</a>; and that “Putin knows that, too, by the way.”</p>
<p>The most recent Presidential broadsides against NATO reflected Trump’s frustration with European allies who chose not to involve themselves in the war against Iran and/or denied their political and military support for the actions taken under Operation EPIC FURY—an effort that Secretary of War, Hegseth <a href="https://www.war.gov/Spotlights/Operation-Epic-Fury/">describes as</a> “laser-focused [to] destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure – and they will never have nuclear weapons.&#8221; But this hesitancy among European allies should not have surprised U.S. leadership. Neither NATO as an alliance nor individual European governments were consulted before the decision to go to war, nor were they fully informed until the operation was already in progress. Further to the issue of NATO support, Trump’s address to the nation on April 1st simply assumed that the United States would wind up its military operations within several weeks and would turn the problem of unblocking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz over to European countries and others. In addition, Western European governments have strong public support for putting distance between themselves and the war in Iran. Popular majorities in every country oppose the U.S. and Israeli campaign, and European opposition to the war is enhanced by Trump’s personal unpopularity on that side of the Atlantic.</p>
<p>An additional element in the split between Trump and NATO was the Russian interpretation of its implications for the war in Ukraine, and more broadly, for Russia’s national security strategy writ large. Prolonged U.S. commitment to war in the Middle East could deplete the availability of military assets that would otherwise be available to sustain Ukrainian forces in their fight against Russia. The global spike in gas and oil prices was an obvious boon to the Russian economy and, from the standpoint of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, an unwelcome distraction for European leaders from the priority of supporting Ukraine. Russia also took advantage of Epic Fury to reinforce its support for Iran by providing targeting information for Iranian missile attacks against Israel and other regional states. Russia and Iran had already been sharing technology and knowledge with respect to drone warfare even prior to the launch of military operations against Tehran.</p>
<p>To some extent, the volatility in the Trump administration’s approach to NATO reflected the President’s frustration at his inability to broker a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. Vladimir Putin viewed Russia’s war as existential and refused to acknowledge that there was any distinction between Ukrainian and Russian civilizations, let alone sovereignties. The Ukrainians responded in kind, resisting Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory with creative use of drone technology and edgy defensive strategizing that put at risk a variety of targets in Russian territory, including bomber bases and critical infrastructure. Worse for Putin, his invasion in 2022, preceded by Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, refocused NATO on its primary mission of deterrence and defense in Europe as opposed to “out of the area” operations such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Even the formerly Cold War neutral states, Sweden and Finland, were added to NATO’s membership because of Russia’s attempted coup de main against Kiev that turned into the longest and most destructive war in Europe since World War II. Caught in a trap of his own making, Putin continued to pour troops and material into the battlefields of Donbas and elsewhere in eastern Ukraine to support a more favorable negotiating position, should productive negotiations ever materialize.</p>
<p>Given Trump’s propensity for rearranging the deck chairs on foreign policy via Truth Social memoranda, it is conceivable that he will tone down the anti–NATO rhetoric once he has decided on a strategy for winding down the U.S. military campaign in Iran. The process of deconflicting the Strait of Hormuz will likely involve participation from European nations and other countries. Almost nobody benefits from continued bottlenecks in global shipping of oil and other vital commodities. Regardless of the outcome in Iran, the United States needs NATO, and NATO needs the United States. Without the U.S. as the indispensable leading partner, NATO Europe has insufficient nuclear or conventional deterrence against further Russian aggression. This assertion implies no disregard for the steps that the U.S. European allies have already taken since 2022 to improve the quality of their armed forces and military–industrial complexes. It is instead a recognition that the unique American nuclear deterrent and conventional war-fighting capabilities, supported by European determination to resist further Russian aggression, create a global as well as a regional deterrent for Russia and its partners (The CRINKs – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) that benefits not only NATO but also world peace. On the other hand, a divided and internally fractious NATO invites further aggression within and beyond Europe.</p>
<p><em>Stephen J. Cimbala is Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Penn State Brandywine and the author of numerous works on nuclear deterrence, arms control, and military strategy. He is a senior fellow at NIDS and a recent contributor to the Routledge Handbook of Soviet and Russian Military Studies edited by Dr. Alexander Hill (Routledge: 2025). The views of the author are his own.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Trumping-NATO.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-32606" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-Download-Button26.png" alt="" width="198" height="55" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-Download-Button26.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-Download-Button26-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 198px) 100vw, 198px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/trumping-nato/">Trumping NATO</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>Is The Air Campaign Against Iran an Illegal Use of Force?</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/is-the-air-campaign-against-iran-an-illegal-use-of-force/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/is-the-air-campaign-against-iran-an-illegal-use-of-force/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Fincher]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2026 12:13:12 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=32432</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Published: March 12, 2026 Whenever the United States resorts to military force, the same question echoes through Washington and beyond: Did President Trump act within the law? Recent controversies surrounding the War Powers Resolution—especially the requirement to notify Congress—have only intensified that debate. This article steps aside from that familiar battleground. Instead, it asks a [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/is-the-air-campaign-against-iran-an-illegal-use-of-force/">Is The Air Campaign Against Iran an Illegal Use of Force?</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Published: March 12, 2026</em></p>
<p>Whenever the United States resorts to military force, the same question echoes through Washington and beyond: Did President Trump act within the law? Recent controversies surrounding the War Powers Resolution—especially the requirement to notify Congress—have only intensified that debate. This article steps aside from that familiar battleground. Instead, it asks a more fundamental constitutional question: would an air campaign against Iran be lawful under the United States Constitution? A careful reading suggests that the answer may well be yes.</p>
<p>There are two sections in Article I of the Constitution that address the authority to declare war. Clause 11 of Section 8 grants Congress the power to declare war, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make rules concerning capture on land and water. It is not the only provision that discusses war-making authority.</p>
<p>Clause 3 of Section 10, which is rarely mentioned in war powers discussions, deprives the states of the authority to maintain a standing army or navy, or to engage in war. It is the federal government’s responsibility to provide for the nation&#8217;s common defense, with two exceptions. First, Congress may permit states to possess these powers. Second, states may go to war if they are “actually invaded, or in such imminent danger as will not admit of delay.”</p>
<p><strong>War Powers Act of 1973</strong></p>
<p>Using general legislative authority, as well as power granted to it from Article I, Section 8, Congress passed the <a href="https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/news/war-powers-resolution-1973">War Powers Act</a> in 1973. The Act came after frustration over the Korean War and the bombing campaign over Cambodia during the Vietnam War.</p>
<p>The Act creates several limitations on the President’s abilities to make war and requires: 1) a declaration of war, 2) specific statutory authorization, or 3) a national emergency created by an attack upon the United States, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces.</p>
<p>“In every possible instance,” the President is required to consult with Congress prior to beginning hostilities and do so within 48 hours. Congressional approval is needed if hostilities are to continue beyond 60 days.</p>
<p>From a prescriptivist perspective, there are compelling arguments that certain provisions of the Act may be unconstitutional. While some argue that Congress cannot delegate its authority to make war, others argue that the Act infringes on the President’s duties as Commander in Chief. Article I, Section 10, creates exceptional circumstances for the exercise of war-making powers. Moreover, there is a strong textual argument that those powers expressly granted to the states inherently apply to the President.</p>
<p><strong>Principles of Presidential War Powers</strong></p>
<p>Using the two clauses of the Constitution referenced above, we can extract two principles regarding war-making authority: Consent of Congress and Imminent Danger.</p>
<ol>
<li><strong> Consent of Congress</strong></li>
</ol>
<p>Congress can consent in three ways. It can issue a formal declaration of war. It can also pass legislation to create conditions for the use of force. And it can give the Commander in Chief limited flexibility, as they did with the War Powers Act.</p>
<p>Alternatively, Congress can signal passive approval by not responding to the Presidential action at all. This last approach is controversial, but common sense and Supreme Court precedent suggest it is lawful. Moreover, Congress is the only body that can legally correct an unauthorized or undesired war. They can pass laws to restrict war-making authority, end a war, or use their impeachment power. When Congress chooses not to use these options, it is effectively granting passive consent.</p>
<ol start="2">
<li><strong> Imminent Danger Exception</strong></li>
</ol>
<p>As stated in the preamble to the Constitution, the purpose of creating a constitution is to provide for the common defense of the people, among other goals. While Congress has the Article I power to declare war or legislate how the President can wage war, responsibilities are commingled. The President is the Commander in Chief per Article II, Section 2. One of the implied duties of heading the armed forces is directing them in a defensive attack or addressing imminent danger, which <a href="https://legal-resources.uslegalforms.com/i/imminent-danger">refers</a> to an immediate threat that poses a risk of harm without prompt intervention. This is not a tangential power of the President, but a core constitutional power as well.</p>
<p>It would be ludicrous to suggest that the initial response to the War of 1812 was unauthorized because Congress could not meet to deliberate on a declaration. While it is clearly the primary duty of the federal government to repel invasion, it is also in the purview of the states to act when “actually invaded” or placed in “imminent danger.” The Founding Fathers clearly recognized the need for flexibility in responding to threats, especially in an era when communication delays were the norm. If the states are given such power in exceptional circumstances, certainly the Commander in Chief would have these powers.</p>
<p>What is peculiar is that the flexibility afforded to states is not restricted to times of invasion. An invasion is already an imminent danger. Neither is the exception in Section 10, Clause 3 restricted to actions on the sea for events such as intercepting a flotilla attempting to invade. It is easy to believe the Founders contemplated threats from their immediate borders with France, Britain, and Spain.</p>
<p>If a state had a border along a river, and an enemy nation started concentrating forces on the other bank of the river, one could argue the existence of imminent danger, especially in historic times where standing armies were statements in and of themselves.</p>
<p><strong>How This Applies to Iran</strong></p>
<p>There is clearly some lawful justification for offensive use of force when Congress does not provide express consent. Just War Theory and the preemption doctrine can be discussed all day long until we are blue in the face, without concluding whether the current use of force is theoretically justified. The answer is truly a matter of prudence and congressional will.</p>
<p>Using threats of imminent danger as justification <em>seems </em>to be a stretch in this scenario, particularly because many in positions of authority <a href="https://nypost.com/2026/03/02/us-news/rubio-claims-us-knew-israel-would-attack-iran-acted-to-protect-american-troops/">have hinted the imminence</a> originates with Israel’s decision to carry out strikes and the retaliation that would bring upon American forces within the region.</p>
<p>One can argue that the intent of the imminent danger exception in the Constitution is limited to public defense. The War Powers Act considers imminent danger to military forces. Say that the military came across evidence of a nation trying to repeat a USS Cole-style bombing. Retaliating against that nation or striking first to reduce their capability would be the prudent thing to do, and it would be a lawful use of force under the Constitution alone, regardless of what acts of Congress say.</p>
<p>It is also important to consider the specific moment used to assess whether the actions are lawful. At the start of a conflict, one might not actually be in immediate danger or have given consent. Nevertheless, arguing imminent danger becomes easier in the chaos of war, especially after the first shot is fired.</p>
<p>It is unknown what the actual intelligence is behind the scenes, nor is it known the veracity of public comments by members of the Administration and Congress. Some say it is about nuclear weapon production, preempting retaliation that would stem from Israel’s strikes against Iran, retaliation for the <a href="https://nypost.com/2026/01/25/world-news/more-than-36500-killed-in-deadliest-two-days-in-iran-protest-crackdown-report/">alleged</a> killings of thousands of Iranian civilians, or regime change. Others who are just as authoritative contradict these claims.</p>
<p>While there may be classified intelligence to the contrary, this is a rare instance in which the justification for the strikes has not been communicated to the public. Normally, the public is aware of escalating tensions and seeing the President or other officials give warnings or make demands before we see strikes. On the evening of March 3, 2026, many members of Congress took to social media to discuss their briefing on the conflict. Representatives Seth Magaziner and Stephen Lynch, Senator Richard Blumenthal, among others, indicated that the administration failed to articulate any justification, while most <a href="https://abcnews.com/US/moment-reactions-pour-congress-after-trump-strikes-iran/story?id=130596800">republicans stated support</a> for the strikes.</p>
<p>Just as there is a fog of war, there is a fog of politics. Commentary is often on partisan lines; it is an election year, and members often vote against public statements, and to the chagrin of public opinion. It is also common for members to offer support privately and behind the scenes while publicly posturing against matters. What matters is what Congress does as a body. Congress has not yet revoked the President’s war-making ability. Until they do so, they are at least providing passive consent for the President to use force against Iran. While some may find the prudence of this conflict distasteful, until Congress votes otherwise, the war and that the President’s actions are lawful per the Constitution itself.</p>
<p><em>Michael Fincher is a Fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Is-The-Air-Campaign-Against-Iran-an-Illegal-Use-of-Force.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-32091" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Download-Button.png" alt="" width="227" height="63" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Download-Button.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Download-Button-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 227px) 100vw, 227px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/is-the-air-campaign-against-iran-an-illegal-use-of-force/">Is The Air Campaign Against Iran an Illegal Use of Force?</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>Exposing Willful Blindness: American Strength Is Nonnegotiable</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/exposing-willful-blindness-american-strength-is-nonnegotiable/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brandon Toliver]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Jul 2025 12:16:50 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=31205</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Katerina Canyon’s op-ed, “From Deterrence to Diplomacy: Why Nuclear Dominance Is a Dangerous Illusion,” calls for restraint and diplomacy rather than a robust nuclear arsenal. While her concerns over escalation risks and humanitarian impacts have merit, her critique mischaracterizes the robust, empirical arguments in “From Deterrence to Dominance: Strengthening US Nuclear Posture in a Shifting [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/exposing-willful-blindness-american-strength-is-nonnegotiable/">Exposing Willful Blindness: American Strength Is Nonnegotiable</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Katerina Canyon’s op-ed, “From Deterrence to Diplomacy: Why Nuclear Dominance Is a Dangerous Illusion,” calls for restraint and diplomacy rather than a robust nuclear arsenal. While her concerns over escalation risks and humanitarian impacts have merit, her critique mischaracterizes the robust, empirical arguments in “<a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/from-deterrence-to-dominance-strengthening-us-nuclear-posture-in-a-shifting-world/">From Deterrence to Dominance: Strengthening US Nuclear Posture in a Shifting World</a>.”</p>
<p>Peace in international affairs is not a natural state; it is actively maintained through strength. As <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/reconsidering-appeasement/">Winston Churchill</a> famously noted, true peace is achieved not by retreating from power, but by wielding it wisely.</p>
<p>Today, with China rapidly modernizing its conventional and nuclear forces and Russia pursuing territorial ambitions backed by nuclear threats, a kinder and gentler approach risks inviting greater aggression. Only a credible deterrence posture—grounded in empirical evidence and historical lessons—can secure strategic stability.</p>
<p>Reinforcing American nuclear dominance is not about favoring conflict over diplomacy; it is about ensuring that American deterrence is strong enough to compel respect and maintain global order in an increasingly volatile world.</p>
<p><strong>First Things First</strong></p>
<p>American nuclear weapons serve as a cornerstone of deterrence, preventing strategic attack and reassuring allies. This element of deterrence is under pressure as China and Russia rapidly expand their arsenals, and North Korea advances its capabilities, creating a complex, multipolar threat environment.</p>
<p>The primary point in the original article was the need to reestablish American nuclear dominance—not as a provocation but as a stabilizing force. In an era of rising threats and eroding deterrence, a more robust and flexible nuclear posture is essential to prevent conflict, assure allies, and preserve global security.</p>
<p><strong>Misreading the Nature of Nuclear Dominance</strong></p>
<p>A primary claim presented by Canyon is that advocating for nuclear dominance is tantamount to seeking advantage through expansion, thereby increasing the risk of catastrophe. This is a misrepresentation of evidence. The call for dominance is not about reckless arms racing or seeking victory in nuclear war. Rather, it is about ensuring that the United States’ nuclear posture is credible, flexible, and resilient enough to deter adversaries in a world where the old rules no longer apply.</p>
<p>The Cold War’s doctrine of <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/348671812.pdf">mutually assured destruction (MAD)</a> worked because both sides fielded survivable second-strike capabilities and clearly communicated those capabilities to the other. Today, China and Russia are modernizing and diversifying their arsenals at a pace not seen since the 1980s. <a href="https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/nuclear-risks-grow-new-arms-race-looms-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now">China’s warhead stockpile</a> surpassed 600 in 2025 and is projected to double by 2030. Russia, meanwhile, maintains the world’s largest <a href="https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/">inventory of non-strategic nuclear weapons</a>—estimated at 2,000 warheads—many of which are integrated into conventional military operations, as seen in Ukraine.</p>
<p>Dominance in this context means closing critical gaps—like the absence of credible theater-range nuclear options—and ensuring that American extended deterrence is not just theoretical, but practical and adaptable to new threats.</p>
<p><strong>Historical Lessons: Arms Races and Escalation</strong></p>
<p>Invocation of the Cold War arms race is erroneously used as a cautionary tale, suggesting that any move toward dominance will inevitably provoke adversaries and increase the risk of miscalculation. History is more nuanced.</p>
<p>The most dangerous moments of the Cold War—Berlin (1961) and Cuba (1962)—were not the result of American dominance but of <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315633039-22/power-weakness-robert-kagan">perceived weakness, ambiguity, and miscommunication</a>. The 1980s nuclear buildup, while expensive, ultimately contributed to the Soviet Union’s willingness to negotiate arms reductions (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)) from a position of mutual strength. As former Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger noted, “<a href="https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&amp;&amp;p=a3fac9e88c000058ee85484ecbc89fdcf1fa74b76d9705f6e87846a5dbba38cfJmltdHM9MTc1MDcyMzIwMA&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=4&amp;fclid=0a79bb16-1a35-60c1-3402-af001b7a6139&amp;psq=Deterrence+is+not+about+parity%3b+it%e2%80%99s+about+credibility+and+resolve.&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9wcmVzcy51bWljaC5lZHUvcGRmLzA0NzIxMTI4NzItY2g4LnBkZg&amp;ntb=1">Deterrence is not about parity; it’s about credibility and resolve.</a>”</p>
<p>Moreover, the post–Cold War era of American nuclear restraint did not prevent Russia’s annexation of Crimea, China’s militarization of the South China Sea, or North Korea’s nuclear breakout. A senior research professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee, asserting that “<a href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Mahnken_10-22-15.pdf">adversaries exploit perceived gaps</a> in US resolve and capability, not its strength.”</p>
<p><strong>The Risks of a Passive Posture</strong></p>
<p>Canyon argues that modernizing or expanding American nuclear capabilities—such as the SLCM-N or space-based interceptors—will only accelerate a global arms race. Yet, the data show that adversaries are already racing ahead, regardless of American action.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiR7dbzlYqOAxXKEVkFHVzDEh8QFnoECBkQAQ&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fcarnegieendowment.org%2Frussia-eurasia%2Fpolitika%2F2024%2F01%2Frussias-nuclear-modernization-drive-is-only-a-success-on-paper%3Flang%3Den&amp;usg=AOvVaw0xSFTrjP2MUHZL-LkRW0WX&amp;opi=89978449">Nearly 95 percent of Russia’s nuclear triad is modernized,</a> with new hypersonic and dual-capable systems. <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjIxbmRloqOAxXdEFkFHbZ0OpIQFnoECBcQAQ&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fchinapower.csis.org%2Fchina-nuclear-weapons%2F&amp;usg=AOvVaw146oe4HqpAgeuNTp3UL7Zx&amp;opi=89978449">China</a> is rapidly fielding road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), ballistic missile submarines, and hypersonic glide vehicles. <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiCoN2nloqOAxXtFFkFHf1LC24QFnoECCMQAQ&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.armscontrol.org%2Fact%2F2025-04%2Fnews%2Fnorth-korea-justifies-nuclear-weapons-expansion&amp;usg=AOvVaw2bN4ozw670jepNgZx88RAk&amp;opi=89978449">North Korea bolsters over 50 nuclear weapons</a> with growing missile survivability and regional reach.</p>
<p>Iran was advancing toward a nuclear threshold, with uranium-enrichment activities previously nearing weapons-grade levels. In response, the United States launched a preemptive strike targeting Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. American officials framed the operation as a limited, precision action designed to neutralize an imminent threat and prevent a larger, more destructive regional war.</p>
<p>By acting before Iran could cross the nuclear threshold, the US aimed to avoid a future scenario in which multiple states—particularly Israel—might engage in broader, uncoordinated military campaigns. The strike also sent a calibrated message intended to deter further escalation while leaving diplomatic channels open.</p>
<p>Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal remains one of the largest in the region, and its proxy network, coordinated through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, continues to operate across Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.</p>
<p>The US, by contrast, faces delays and budget overruns in its own modernization efforts and lacks credible theater-range nuclear options in both Europe and Asia. This is not dominance; it is vulnerability.</p>
<p><strong>Diplomacy and Arms Control: Not Mutually Exclusive</strong></p>
<p>Canyon calls for a return to arms control and diplomacy, citing the expiration of New START in 2026. Diplomacy is essential, but history shows that arms control only works when backed by <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjv18uwl4qOAxW4JUQIHSBEAW0QFnoECBcQAQ&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Ftnsr.org%2F2018%2F11%2Fthe-purposes-of-arms-control%2F&amp;usg=AOvVaw394GwgBWUdQqNos61KdXAC&amp;opi=89978449">credible deterrence</a>.</p>
<p>The most successful arms control agreements (Strategic Arms Limitations Talks (SALT), INF, START) were negotiated when the US held a position of strength. The collapse of the INF Treaty and the uncertain future of New START are not the result of American intransigence but of Russian violations and China’s refusal to join trilateral talks. As the Congressional Research Service notes, “Arms control is not a substitute for deterrence; it is a complement to it.”</p>
<p><strong>Alliance Cohesion and Forward Deployment</strong></p>
<p>The suggestion that forward-deploying nuclear assets makes allies “targets, not safer” is textbook pacifist propaganda. This ignores decades of alliance management and empirical research. Extended deterrence—backed by visible, credible, American capabilities—has prevented proliferation in Japan, South Korea, and NATO for generations.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiO4aX6l4qOAxUR_skDHWiXHy8QFnoECCcQAQ&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heritage.org%2Fmilitary-strength%2Fassessment-us-military-power%2Fus-nuclear-weapons&amp;usg=AOvVaw15LGIyBLHmyufWRZz5DxVZ&amp;opi=89978449">2023 RAND study</a> found that allies are more likely to pursue their own nuclear options if they doubt American commitments. Forward deployment, joint planning, and regular consultations are essential to alliance cohesion and nonproliferation. The United States’ nuclear umbrella extends to over 30 allied and partner nations, primarily within <a href="https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=ccb8066356fd07b7&amp;cs=0&amp;q=NATO&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiDhfnsmIqOAxWr6skDHYqJL1wQxccNegQIAhAB&amp;mstk=AUtExfAceYhAF-0mtB58rM7SNIoAYPP3OmhRwOD6NFvxAiatNzIFKqvv-w96a1UlLSy6D538GPoivqrkNQQNRFZ3ForFQFIRNCLXH-0QrW9WE9j_e0_J4TKLFgdNAwPWlSE-JyM&amp;csui=3">NATO</a>, but also including countries like Australia, Japan, and South Korea. These nations are assured of American protection, including potential nuclear response, in case of attack.</p>
<p><strong>Economic Trade-offs: Security and Prosperity</strong></p>
<p>Context is key. Canyon points to the $1 trillion cost of nuclear modernization over 30 years, suggesting these funds would be better spent elsewhere. This figure represents less than 5 percent of projected defense spending over that period, and less than 0.1 percent of gross domestic product annually. The cost of deterrence is dwarfed by the potential costs of conventional war should deterrence fail. Small conflicts like Afghanistan and Iraq cost over $7 trillion. The cost of a war against China would be far higher.</p>
<p>National strength is not a zero-sum game between security and social spending. The credibility of US leadership—and the stability it underwrites—enables the very prosperity and global order that supports education, healthcare, and infrastructure.</p>
<p><strong>Public Opinion and Global Norms: A Reality Check</strong></p>
<p>Canyon’s claim that “most Americans and the global community favor arms reduction” lacks empirical rigor. Sweeping generalizations like this demand robust, replicated data across diverse populations. Without that, such assertions are more rhetorical than factual.</p>
<p>In contrast, multiple credible surveys reveal consistent public support for deterrence and defense. For example, a November 2022 poll found that 60 percent of Americans believe the military’s primary role is to deter attacks on the US. A national survey showed that a vast majority of voters view nuclear deterrence as critical to national security, with nearly three-quarters supporting modernization efforts.</p>
<p>The 2023 NATO Annual Tracking Survey found that 61 percent of allied respondents believe NATO membership reduces the likelihood of foreign attack, and 58 percent see it as a deterrent. In Germany, 64 percent support a European nuclear deterrent independent of the US, reflecting growing concern over strategic autonomy.</p>
<p>Another poll reported that 69 percent of Americans feel defense spending increases their sense of security. These data points underscore a clear trend; public opinion, in the US and Europe, favors credible deterrence over disarmament, especially amid rising threats from China, North Korea, and Russia. This is the factual foundation that reinforces the case for maintaining and strengthening American nuclear capabilities, not as a provocation, but as a stabilizing force in an increasingly volatile world.</p>
<p><strong>The Real Existential Threats</strong></p>
<p>Extreme weather events, natural disasters, pandemics, and mass displacement are among today’s gravest challenges. Yet, using these non-nuclear crises to justify a softened stance on nuclear deterrence is like comparing apples and oranges. Even the most intelligent and well-informed individuals sometimes fall into the trap of an “either-or” debate, mistakenly assuming it is only possible to address one threat or the other.</p>
<p>Multiple risks demand simultaneous attention. Credible nuclear deterrence is not an overreaction; it is a precise, vital response to a threat that, if unleashed, would compound other crises and shatter global stability.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion: Dominance as Responsible Leadership</strong></p>
<p>Canyon’s critique is a masterclass in wishful thinking, a dangerously naive philosophy that would lead the free world to ruin if ever implemented. It stems from a misplaced comfort with notions of restraint and diplomacy, ignoring the hard reality that security is founded on military strength. History, from the catastrophic failures of appeasement in the 1930s to the isolationism preceding Pearl Harbor, teaches that weakness only emboldens tyrants. Each concession, whether to Hitler’s remilitarization of the Rhineland or to modern-day aggressors, proves that diplomacy without credible force is nothing more than indulgence.</p>
<p>The current global landscape is dominated by adversaries who respect only strength. Russia, under its neo-imperialist regime, wields its vast nuclear arsenal to bolster conventional aggression. China’s unprecedented military modernization is reshaping the balance of power in Asia, and Iran continues its relentless march toward nuclear capability while sponsoring proxy terror. To imagine that these regimes would respond to soft words or empty promises is akin to believing that a repeatedly misbehaving child will learn simply by being put in timeout. Real change is forced change.</p>
<p>American strength, particularly through a robust nuclear deterrent, is not a provocation; it is the only language these adversaries understand. It ensures that any aggressive action exacts a price too steep to consider. In an increasingly perilous world, where the stakes are nothing less than the survival of global stability, a commitment to maintaining unparalleled military dominance is both pragmatic and essential. Ignoring this reality is not idealism, it is willful blindness that invites disaster.</p>
<p><em>Brandon Toliver is a Senior Fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/A-Rebuke-to-Willful-Blindness.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="216" height="60" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 216px) 100vw, 216px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/exposing-willful-blindness-american-strength-is-nonnegotiable/">Exposing Willful Blindness: American Strength Is Nonnegotiable</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>An Endgame in Ukraine</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/an-endgame-in-ukraine/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/an-endgame-in-ukraine/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Christophe Bosquillon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Jan 2025 14:25:50 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>The incoming Trump administration will pick up the Ukraine dossier where the outgoing administration left it. As American leadership moves away from election rhetorics and back to the reality of governing, President Trump will attempt to bring the war in Ukraine to a negotiated resolution, but what that might look like is uncertain. The incoming [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/an-endgame-in-ukraine/">An Endgame in Ukraine</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The incoming Trump administration will pick up the Ukraine dossier where the outgoing administration left it. As American leadership moves away from election rhetorics and back to the reality of governing, President Trump will attempt to bring the <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5059813-russian-minister-rejects-trump-proposals/">war in Ukraine</a> to a negotiated resolution, but what that might look like is uncertain.</p>
<p>The incoming administration may prefer a blend of hard power and transactional diplomacy. An exit strategy for Ukraine and Russia is for both to come across as winners through conflict resolution.</p>
<p>A Russian maximalist position would require Ukraine to lose on all fronts. This means no return of territory; no European Union (EU) or North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership. In theory, Russia needs to be incentivized to either give back the territories, and/or allow Ukraine to join NATO and the EU. The latter, however, is the least likely since it was Western encroachment on Russian borders and Ukrainian efforts to join Western organizations that served as Russian justification for their aggression.</p>
<p>In reality, Russia will never return Crimea to Ukraine. Crimean history, for Russia, is a bloody struggle against the Ottomans, making Crimea important to Russian pride.</p>
<p>The normal EU or NATO accession process takes years or decades. Expediting Ukraine’s accession to either will only reinforce Russian fears that the West is attempting to encircle Russia.</p>
<p>Ukraine’s reconstruction represents a serious economic challenge for the West. The United Nations currently <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/02/1146562#:~:text=Reconstruction%20and%20recovery%20in%20war-torn%20Ukraine%20is%20projected,a%20UN-backed%20study%20published%20on%20Thursday%20has%20revealed.">estimates the cost of reconstruction</a> at $486 billion. Who will pay for that reconstruction may play a large role in any negotiations.</p>
<p>Previous public statements by Western officials calling for the expedited membership of Ukraine in NATO only provokes Russian recalcitrance, which will be a challenge for Donald Trump to overcome. With Finland and Sweden now part of NATO, the Baltic Sea is a NATO lake that is closed to Russian naval assets. Ukraine in NATO will threaten Russia’s warm-water ports.</p>
<p>Ukraine in NATO is a non-starter for Russia. Keeping Crimea is an important part of ensuring Russian security. An acceptable compromise will require both sides to walk away unhappy while claiming victory. Ukraine may have to accept the loss of Crimea and the Donbass. It may also require an agreement to forgo joining NATO and, likely, the EU. Russian troops will end their aggression against Ukraine and leave. Western states will likely have the unenviable task of rebuilding Ukraine.</p>
<p>The Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike Russia with American weapons is not sustainable in the long run, making it difficult for Ukraine to coerce Russia into a “good deal” in any peace talk. Public opinion in Ukraine supports ending the war short of victory. Ukrainians just want the war to end.</p>
<p>The endgame for Ukraine does not stop at Ukraine’s border. The Trump administration is expected to also play a role in protecting NATO member-states near Russia from further aggression. Appearing too weak empowers Russian aggression, while imposing unrealistic conditions will not end the war.</p>
<p>The exact conditions of any deal are certain to include elements that are not strictly related to the conflict’s settlement. For example, European states may agree to purchase American natural gas instead of Russian natural gas. European NATO member-states may also be required to pay for reconstruction.</p>
<p>A return to the purchase of Russian natural gas, Russia’s biggest export to Europe, may serve as a bargaining chip in negotiations, it is easily conceivable that a Trump administration will want payback for previous American support. This may include a much larger position on Europe’s energy and other markets.</p>
<p>Germany, which is heavily dependent on Russian natural gas, will care deeply about such negotiations. Lifting sanctions will be important for Russia and Europe.</p>
<p>The brave new world that is the future of Europe may stand somewhere between a new NATO versus Russia bipolarity and balkanization. Some countries may attempt to play all sides involved. Deterrence may still hold, but European NATO must certainly rearm.</p>
<p>Across NATO, there is an effort already underway to learn the lessons of the Ukraine war. Any endgame must ensure the West is far more effective at making sense of those lessons than are China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Developments in cyber, space, drone, and missile warfare are all critical elements of post-war learning.</p>
<p>For the sake of the Ukrainian people, it is time to end this conflict. But it must be done in a way that protects the future of Ukraine while understanding Russian fears. Rightly, Russian President Vladimir Putin deserves the disdain of the free world. Absent the ability to impose a clear victory on Russia, which is a challenge given Russian nuclear arms, a negotiated settlement is the only viable option.</p>
<p><em>Christophe Bosquillon is a Senior Fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. He has over 30 years of international experience in general management, foreign direct investment, and private equity and fund management across various industries in Europe and the Pacific Basin. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/An-Endgame-in-Ukraine.pdf"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29719 " src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-300x83.png" alt="" width="260" height="72" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-300x83.png 300w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button.png 450w" sizes="(max-width: 260px) 100vw, 260px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/an-endgame-in-ukraine/">An Endgame in Ukraine</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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