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		<title>Is The Air Campaign Against Iran an Illegal Use of Force?</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/is-the-air-campaign-against-iran-an-illegal-use-of-force/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Fincher]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2026 12:13:12 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=32432</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Published: March 12, 2026 Whenever the United States resorts to military force, the same question echoes through Washington and beyond: Did President Trump act within the law? Recent controversies surrounding the War Powers Resolution—especially the requirement to notify Congress—have only intensified that debate. This article steps aside from that familiar battleground. Instead, it asks a [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/is-the-air-campaign-against-iran-an-illegal-use-of-force/">Is The Air Campaign Against Iran an Illegal Use of Force?</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Published: March 12, 2026</em></p>
<p>Whenever the United States resorts to military force, the same question echoes through Washington and beyond: Did President Trump act within the law? Recent controversies surrounding the War Powers Resolution—especially the requirement to notify Congress—have only intensified that debate. This article steps aside from that familiar battleground. Instead, it asks a more fundamental constitutional question: would an air campaign against Iran be lawful under the United States Constitution? A careful reading suggests that the answer may well be yes.</p>
<p>There are two sections in Article I of the Constitution that address the authority to declare war. Clause 11 of Section 8 grants Congress the power to declare war, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make rules concerning capture on land and water. It is not the only provision that discusses war-making authority.</p>
<p>Clause 3 of Section 10, which is rarely mentioned in war powers discussions, deprives the states of the authority to maintain a standing army or navy, or to engage in war. It is the federal government’s responsibility to provide for the nation&#8217;s common defense, with two exceptions. First, Congress may permit states to possess these powers. Second, states may go to war if they are “actually invaded, or in such imminent danger as will not admit of delay.”</p>
<p><strong>War Powers Act of 1973</strong></p>
<p>Using general legislative authority, as well as power granted to it from Article I, Section 8, Congress passed the <a href="https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/news/war-powers-resolution-1973">War Powers Act</a> in 1973. The Act came after frustration over the Korean War and the bombing campaign over Cambodia during the Vietnam War.</p>
<p>The Act creates several limitations on the President’s abilities to make war and requires: 1) a declaration of war, 2) specific statutory authorization, or 3) a national emergency created by an attack upon the United States, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces.</p>
<p>“In every possible instance,” the President is required to consult with Congress prior to beginning hostilities and do so within 48 hours. Congressional approval is needed if hostilities are to continue beyond 60 days.</p>
<p>From a prescriptivist perspective, there are compelling arguments that certain provisions of the Act may be unconstitutional. While some argue that Congress cannot delegate its authority to make war, others argue that the Act infringes on the President’s duties as Commander in Chief. Article I, Section 10, creates exceptional circumstances for the exercise of war-making powers. Moreover, there is a strong textual argument that those powers expressly granted to the states inherently apply to the President.</p>
<p><strong>Principles of Presidential War Powers</strong></p>
<p>Using the two clauses of the Constitution referenced above, we can extract two principles regarding war-making authority: Consent of Congress and Imminent Danger.</p>
<ol>
<li><strong> Consent of Congress</strong></li>
</ol>
<p>Congress can consent in three ways. It can issue a formal declaration of war. It can also pass legislation to create conditions for the use of force. And it can give the Commander in Chief limited flexibility, as they did with the War Powers Act.</p>
<p>Alternatively, Congress can signal passive approval by not responding to the Presidential action at all. This last approach is controversial, but common sense and Supreme Court precedent suggest it is lawful. Moreover, Congress is the only body that can legally correct an unauthorized or undesired war. They can pass laws to restrict war-making authority, end a war, or use their impeachment power. When Congress chooses not to use these options, it is effectively granting passive consent.</p>
<ol start="2">
<li><strong> Imminent Danger Exception</strong></li>
</ol>
<p>As stated in the preamble to the Constitution, the purpose of creating a constitution is to provide for the common defense of the people, among other goals. While Congress has the Article I power to declare war or legislate how the President can wage war, responsibilities are commingled. The President is the Commander in Chief per Article II, Section 2. One of the implied duties of heading the armed forces is directing them in a defensive attack or addressing imminent danger, which <a href="https://legal-resources.uslegalforms.com/i/imminent-danger">refers</a> to an immediate threat that poses a risk of harm without prompt intervention. This is not a tangential power of the President, but a core constitutional power as well.</p>
<p>It would be ludicrous to suggest that the initial response to the War of 1812 was unauthorized because Congress could not meet to deliberate on a declaration. While it is clearly the primary duty of the federal government to repel invasion, it is also in the purview of the states to act when “actually invaded” or placed in “imminent danger.” The Founding Fathers clearly recognized the need for flexibility in responding to threats, especially in an era when communication delays were the norm. If the states are given such power in exceptional circumstances, certainly the Commander in Chief would have these powers.</p>
<p>What is peculiar is that the flexibility afforded to states is not restricted to times of invasion. An invasion is already an imminent danger. Neither is the exception in Section 10, Clause 3 restricted to actions on the sea for events such as intercepting a flotilla attempting to invade. It is easy to believe the Founders contemplated threats from their immediate borders with France, Britain, and Spain.</p>
<p>If a state had a border along a river, and an enemy nation started concentrating forces on the other bank of the river, one could argue the existence of imminent danger, especially in historic times where standing armies were statements in and of themselves.</p>
<p><strong>How This Applies to Iran</strong></p>
<p>There is clearly some lawful justification for offensive use of force when Congress does not provide express consent. Just War Theory and the preemption doctrine can be discussed all day long until we are blue in the face, without concluding whether the current use of force is theoretically justified. The answer is truly a matter of prudence and congressional will.</p>
<p>Using threats of imminent danger as justification <em>seems </em>to be a stretch in this scenario, particularly because many in positions of authority <a href="https://nypost.com/2026/03/02/us-news/rubio-claims-us-knew-israel-would-attack-iran-acted-to-protect-american-troops/">have hinted the imminence</a> originates with Israel’s decision to carry out strikes and the retaliation that would bring upon American forces within the region.</p>
<p>One can argue that the intent of the imminent danger exception in the Constitution is limited to public defense. The War Powers Act considers imminent danger to military forces. Say that the military came across evidence of a nation trying to repeat a USS Cole-style bombing. Retaliating against that nation or striking first to reduce their capability would be the prudent thing to do, and it would be a lawful use of force under the Constitution alone, regardless of what acts of Congress say.</p>
<p>It is also important to consider the specific moment used to assess whether the actions are lawful. At the start of a conflict, one might not actually be in immediate danger or have given consent. Nevertheless, arguing imminent danger becomes easier in the chaos of war, especially after the first shot is fired.</p>
<p>It is unknown what the actual intelligence is behind the scenes, nor is it known the veracity of public comments by members of the Administration and Congress. Some say it is about nuclear weapon production, preempting retaliation that would stem from Israel’s strikes against Iran, retaliation for the <a href="https://nypost.com/2026/01/25/world-news/more-than-36500-killed-in-deadliest-two-days-in-iran-protest-crackdown-report/">alleged</a> killings of thousands of Iranian civilians, or regime change. Others who are just as authoritative contradict these claims.</p>
<p>While there may be classified intelligence to the contrary, this is a rare instance in which the justification for the strikes has not been communicated to the public. Normally, the public is aware of escalating tensions and seeing the President or other officials give warnings or make demands before we see strikes. On the evening of March 3, 2026, many members of Congress took to social media to discuss their briefing on the conflict. Representatives Seth Magaziner and Stephen Lynch, Senator Richard Blumenthal, among others, indicated that the administration failed to articulate any justification, while most <a href="https://abcnews.com/US/moment-reactions-pour-congress-after-trump-strikes-iran/story?id=130596800">republicans stated support</a> for the strikes.</p>
<p>Just as there is a fog of war, there is a fog of politics. Commentary is often on partisan lines; it is an election year, and members often vote against public statements, and to the chagrin of public opinion. It is also common for members to offer support privately and behind the scenes while publicly posturing against matters. What matters is what Congress does as a body. Congress has not yet revoked the President’s war-making ability. Until they do so, they are at least providing passive consent for the President to use force against Iran. While some may find the prudence of this conflict distasteful, until Congress votes otherwise, the war and that the President’s actions are lawful per the Constitution itself.</p>
<p><em>Michael Fincher is a Fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Is-The-Air-Campaign-Against-Iran-an-Illegal-Use-of-Force.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-32091" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Download-Button.png" alt="" width="227" height="63" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Download-Button.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Download-Button-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 227px) 100vw, 227px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/is-the-air-campaign-against-iran-an-illegal-use-of-force/">Is The Air Campaign Against Iran an Illegal Use of Force?</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>Mutually Assured Destruction</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/mutually-assured-destruction/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Huessy]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Sep 2025 12:07:28 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=31558</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Mutually assured destruction or MAD is not an American doctrine or military strategy. Those who believe MAD is how America deters nuclear-armed adversaries assume that any use of nuclear weapons by the United States will be massive, and that any alternative, such as limited nuclear use, will quickly escalate to a full-scale nuclear Armageddon. As a strategy, MAD was [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/mutually-assured-destruction/">Mutually Assured Destruction</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mutually assured destruction or MAD is not an American <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctrine">doctrine</a> or <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_strategy">military strategy</a>. Those who believe MAD is how America deters nuclear-armed adversaries assume that any use of nuclear weapons by the United States will be massive, and that any alternative, such as limited nuclear use, will quickly escalate to a full-scale nuclear Armageddon.</p>
<p>As a strategy, MAD was considered but jettisoned by the United States 65 years ago. For example, President John F. Kennedy noted, “Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to <em>a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war</em>. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy, or of a collective death-wish for the world.” Kennedy succeeded in adopting a strategy short of all-out retaliation that came to be known as “flexible response,” which, in 1974, was fully developed by James Schlesinger and eventually codified in Presidential Defense Directive 59.</p>
<p>Whether the United States has 10,000 or 1,500 strategic nuclear weapons, American forces were designed to have a secure retaliatory capability at any level of conflict. The objective was to end any conflict as soon as possible and at the lowest level of destruction. The American objective was not to burn an adversary’s cities to the ground. American deterrence strategy was to hold at risk what the adversary valued most.</p>
<p>Critics of current deterrence strategy assume that no nuclear-armed adversary of the United States believes in “fighting” a nuclear war. So, the US should drop its long-held deterrence strategy and go back to MAD or something like it. At the same time, many of these critics join nuclear abolitionists to support nuclear weapons but only to deter, not engage, in warfighting. If conflict breaks out and these weapons will not be used in retaliation, then nuclear forces are off the table and reduced to a bluff.</p>
<p>The mistaken notion that the US has a MAD strategy plays into the hands of Russia and China. These two nations both seek to escalate or threaten to escalate in a crisis or conflict with the limited use of nuclear weapons. The objective is to get the United States to stand down and not come to the defense of her allies, a restraint to give Russia and China a strategic advantage.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, much of the current commentary on nuclear threats still assumes the US and its adversaries maintain a mutually assured destruction strategy as the best means to avoid any use of nuclear weapons. Annie Jacobson’s recent book, <em>On Nuclear War: A Scenario</em>, describes a mutually assured destruction strategy, which she assumes the US maintains, as simply MAD or crazy. She posits that any initial use of nuclear weapons would almost automatically result in the all-out use of such weapons, leading to nuclear winter and killing billions. As such, she calls for the entirety of American nuclear deterrence to be jettisoned.</p>
<p>Being in the deterrence business, it is important for Congress, the media, the executive decisionmakers in the military and Department of Defense to fully understand what deterrence, as practiced by the United States, entails and why it must be sustained.</p>
<p>To explain this requires a review of history and an understanding that adversaries of the United States and the West sought military advantage through enhanced nuclear weapons technology. Over time the challenge for the US to sustain deterrence changed. The Soviets sought to put nuclear weapons in space, then built a huge first-strike missile force, then deployed thousands of medium-range SS-20s to intimidate and split NATO, and, most recently, built a theater-strike capability to keep the United States and NATO from winning the war in Ukraine.</p>
<p>The US nuclear deterrent was never one size fits all and automatically fit for purpose. For example, the US and NATO faced a huge conventional military threat from the Soviet Union from the beginning of the Cold War on the plains of central Europe, a place called the Fulda Gap. The Soviet and Warsaw Pact tanks were not matched by American conventional forces. President Dwight D. Eisenhower did not wish to bankrupt the US treasury by building such a large and costly conventional military. The available alternative was to establish a nuclear umbrella over Europe, primarily aimed at Soviet tank armies. Thus, in the initial Cold War period, the US assumed a nuclear conflict would most probably grow out of an initial conventional war.</p>
<p>As technology improved, however, a threat emerged that could markedly change the correlation of forces between the United States and the USSR. The US still sought to deter a potential Soviet push into central Europe, but an additional threat was a potential Soviet pre-emptive first strike seeking to eliminate much of the American extended deterrent, followed up by a subsequent conventional invasion of Europe.</p>
<p>In 1963, the American strategic nuclear deterrent consisted of 6,000 nuclear warheads while the Russians had 600 warheads. As President Kennedy remarked, this strength, and particularly the newly deployed Minuteman missiles, were “my ace in the hole” that gave the United States the strategic advantage that peacefully ended the Cuban Missile Crisis.</p>
<p>However, by the time the next decade ended, the 1972 Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) “arms control” treaty process was implemented and the USSR largely caught up, deploying 7,800 warheads compared to the US force of 8,700 warheads. Most worrisome was the new Soviet land-based missile force of 3,000 warheads on highly accurate SS-18s—with the overall Soviet nuclear force projected to grow to over 24,000 warheads by 1993.</p>
<p>As Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird told Congress in 1974, “the Soviets are going for a first strike force and there is no doubt about it.” The SS-18 eventually held at risk the entirety of the US land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force. This was the only American deterrent force that was sufficiently accurate to target key Soviet leadership and military targets without requiring “city busting.”</p>
<p>The US stopped deploying land-based missiles at 1,050 and associated warheads at around 2,000—assuming the USSR would show equal restraint. But Moscow built a huge land-based ICBM force that could take out the nation’s Minuteman missiles, leaving the US without the ability to hold key Soviet assets at risk. This perceived imbalance was known as the “window of vulnerability” where the US faced the prospects of a Soviet-initiated first strike that would leave US leaders exactly where President Kennedy worried it would.</p>
<p>The US solved the strategic equation of the window of vulnerability, the Soviet empire collapsed, the US added the Trident II D-5 submarine-launched ballistic missile and Peacekeeper land-based ICBM, Soviet SS-20s were banned, and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) arms control process brought Russian warheads down to under 2,000.</p>
<p>In April 1999, Russian President Boris Yeltsin, economically unable to rebuild a Soviet-era nuclear force, decreed that Moscow develop highly accurate, small, low-yield, battlefield nuclear weapons, which his successor, Vladimir Putin, did in earnest. As former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General John Hyten warned, these theater nuclear weapons were designed to “escalate to win” a conventional conflict or crisis between Moscow and Washington.</p>
<p>Putin thinks the US will not respond to the small-scale use of nuclear weapons because the US will not want to risk escalation and the possibility of strategic nuclear exchange. That is why Putin made exactly these threats over NATO’s intervention in the war against Ukraine.</p>
<p>Both Russia and China assume the relative weak theater nuclear forces the US maintains are now insufficient to match escalatory threats from Moscow and possibly Beijing. This point was emphasized by the 2023 Strategic Posture Commission report in laying out the opening of a new window of vulnerability.</p>
<p>The US is indeed now developing a greater theater nuclear deterrent to close the technology gap. However, simply adding to America’s conventional deterrent is not sufficient. As military leadership has repeatedly emphasized, if adversarial nuclear forces are introduced into a conventional conflict, the American advantage ceases. In short, conventional military leverage disappears.</p>
<p>The central tenets of mutually assured destruction no longer apply. MAD was jettisoned long ago. More importantly, America’s adversaries employ credible threats with the nuclear forces. New technology and expanding adversary arsenals are undermining the limited deterrent value of the American nuclear arsenal, a fact that must change if the United States seeks to ensure it does not find itself embroiled in a conflict where capitulation or Armageddon are the nation’s only options.</p>
<p><em>Peter Huessy is a Senior Fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Mutual-assured-destruction.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="230" height="64" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 230px) 100vw, 230px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/mutually-assured-destruction/">Mutually Assured Destruction</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>Trump’s Path to an Imperfect Peace in Ukraine</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/trumps-path-to-an-imperfect-peace-in-ukraine/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alan Dowd]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Sep 2025 12:10:02 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=31461</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>“You can always count on Americans to do the right thing,” Churchill is credited with saying, “after they’ve tried everything else.” It seems that wry observation may now apply to President Donald Trump’s Ukraine policy. Though nothing is certain with the mercurial Trump, there are indications that he is finally ready to do something close [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/trumps-path-to-an-imperfect-peace-in-ukraine/">Trump’s Path to an Imperfect Peace in Ukraine</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>“You can always count on Americans to do the right thing,” Churchill is credited with saying, “after they’ve tried everything else.” It seems that wry observation may now apply to President Donald Trump’s Ukraine policy. Though nothing is certain with the mercurial Trump, there are indications that he is finally ready to do something close to the right thing vis-à-vis Ukraine.</p>
<p>Consider his transformation since February’s Oval Office <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/28/trump-zelensky-meeting-transcript-full-text-video-oval-office/">meeting</a> with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump and Vice President JD Vance chastised Zelensky for being “disrespectful,” admonished Zelensky’s efforts to rally international support as “propaganda,” suggested it was Zelensky’s responsibility “to end the destruction of your country,” and described Zelensky as “buried.” Six months later, <a href="https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/9766/Artykul/3567457,analysis-good-vibes-at-the-white-house%C2%A0relief-in%C2%A0kyiv%C2%A0after-trumpzelensky-summit">Trump</a> is <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-hits-ukraine-drones-kyiv-celebrates-independence-day/story?id=124929154">praising</a> Ukraine’s “unbreakable spirit,” supports its “future as an independent nation,” and appears to realize that Zelensky is not to blame for Vladimir Putin’s war. It is clear that Putin is not entranced by “the art of the deal,” and that America must play a role in securing any postwar peace. The outlines of that peace are starting to come into focus.</p>
<p><strong>Lurching</strong></p>
<p>In early 2025, French military commanders floated the <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-urges-europe-not-141359392.html">possibility</a> of forming a “coalition of the willing” to send troops to Ukraine. Other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) <a href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/latvia-leader-backs-nato-troop-205919633.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAInVdVB8_YxoFQ9km98l6BfTsBZn1e09m2QboeYUi2F35C82B7CuqxgYtUqjzHPP_oIUVVIC80qz0ADGC8oY1U6M_vchiNUidg7VVAW8UVJm6amw_UmhRh2217Livzi7nyJoRGRO7soVlIyfRgwVw0_nCQiLZtP_c5RvCXqe3USK">members</a> expressed <a href="https://apnews.com/article/poland-nato-russia-france-abd144aee256a72388c196dae8acaf7f">support</a> for the idea. By summer, <a href="https://united24media.com/latest-news/10-nations-poised-to-deploy-forces-to-ukraine-in-security-pact-bloomberg-reports-10902">10 European nations</a> offered to contribute troops to a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/19/britain-and-france-working-on-plans-for-reassurance-force-to-protect-ukraine">30,000-man</a> “reassurance force” in postwar Ukraine. However, the Europeans emphasized they would need the US to provide “backstop” <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uks-starmer-says-only-us-backstop-can-secure-lasting-ukraine-peace-2025-02-26/">capabilities</a>.</p>
<p>That was a nonstarter for Trump—at least until the hastily-arranged summit that brought the leaders of Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Finland, Ukraine, NATO, and the EU to the White House on August 18. Whether they came out of panic over the <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/trump-s-botched-ukrainian-peace">unsettling</a> Trump-Putin Alaska meeting or in solidarity with Zelensky, or both, the result of the White House summit was positive.</p>
<p>For example, while Trump <a href="https://www.twz.com/air/no-u-s-peacekeeping-forces-on-the-ground-in-ukraine-air-support-possible-trump">emphasized</a> that he would not deploy American ground forces and explained that “European nations are going to take a lot of the burden,” he added, “We’re going to help them&#8230;we’ll be involved” in any peacekeeping mission.</p>
<p>Toward that end, he <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-us-security-guarantees-b87d2091?mod=mhp">ordered</a> Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine to work with allied militaries on the specifics of a European-led peacekeeping force. Perhaps with the US shouldering <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-nato-planners-start-craft-ukraine-security-guarantee-options-2025-08-19/">command-and-control responsibilities</a>; <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/international/5459890-trump-air-support-ukraine/">offering</a> American airpower and other enabling capabilities; and signaling <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/13/trump-european-leaders-security-ukraine-00508598">support</a> for a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/trump-tells-europeans-he-is-open-to-u-s-security-guarantees-in-ukraine-347892f6?mod=breakingnews">security guarantee</a> for postwar Ukraine, peace may prevail. Predictably, administration officials then <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/20/pentagon-minimal-security-guarantees-ukraine-00516856">hedged</a> on Trump’s promise to support the postwar peacekeeping mission in Ukraine—prompting a NATO diplomat to conclude, “The US is not fully committed to anything.”</p>
<p>What Trump’s transatlantic counterparts and those of us who are critical of Trump’s policies need to keep in mind is that this lurching, two-steps-forward-one-step-back approach to Ukraine’s security is better than what Ukraine endured between January and July. There was the Oval Office <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/28/trump-vance-zelenskyy-oval-office-exchange-00206727">meeting</a>, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/03/politics/trump-administration-ukraine-aid">suspension</a> of military aid and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-cia-zelenskyy-5eb2c8025f6bb4b616c86e1fe89bba0f">intelligence-sharing</a>, the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/17/revealed-trump-confidential-plan-ukraine-stranglehold/">mineral deal</a>, the moral <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5141716-trump-ukraine-war-negotiations/amp/">relativism</a>, outright moral <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna192710">inversion</a>, and the inexplicable <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelenskyy-united-states-russia-policy/">deference</a> to Putin. Trump now appears to be moving in the right direction.</p>
<p><strong>Lessons</strong></p>
<p>Zelensky made clear that Ukraine cannot sign a peace deal without concrete security guarantees—given Putin’s brazen violation of the <a href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf">Budapest Memorandum</a> in 2014 and 2022. Eleven years of occupation and war have taught Ukrainians that words are not enough to ensure their security. A genuine security guarantee, bolstered by multinational peacekeepers and sustained military aid, is what Ukraine needs going forward—not to roll back Putin’s army to pre-2014 borders, but to deter it from another landgrab. The rest of Europe needs this too. A strong, stable, secure Ukraine will only enhance NATO’s ability to deter Moscow.</p>
<p>Such a guarantee will not be embodied by Ukraine’s accession to NATO—at least <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm21j1ve817o">not anytime soon</a>—but instead will be a thatch of <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/07/getting-ukraines-security-agreements-right?lang=en">bilateral commitments</a> from individual NATO members and partners. “A group of now 30 countries, including Japan and Australia, are working on this concept of security guarantees,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently revealed.</p>
<p>To be sure, an American contingent on the ground in postwar Ukraine—working alongside partners that collaborated in other warzones under acronyms such as <a href="https://mfo.org/about-us">MFO</a>, <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_125737.htm">IFOR</a>, <a href="https://www.nato.int/sfor/docu/d981116a.htm">SFOR</a>, <a href="https://jfcnaples.nato.int/kfor">KFOR</a>, and <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_69366.htm">ISAF</a>—would be preferable to what Trump is offering.</p>
<p>After all, American boots on the ground send an unmistakable message to aggressor nations. However, given where Trump was in February, it is important to look at the bright side; rather than taking an ambivalent or even antagonistic position towards Ukraine, Trump appears willing to support America’s closest allies as they secure a postwar peace. The Ukrainian people can then harden their territory against another Russian invasion. There are also two important historical realities.</p>
<p>First, American airpower has a proven track record of making a positive impact on the ground—whether in humanitarian, peacekeeping, deterrent, or combat-support missions. Consider the Berlin Airlift, which sustained a besieged city for 15 months and dealt Stalin a humbling blow. Operations Northern Watch and Southern Watch, which protected Iraqi civilians from Saddam Hussein’s vengeance for 12 years and allowed Iraq’s Kurds to build an all-but-sovereign state is another. Operations Deliberate Force and Allied Force, which, in coordination with partners on the ground, brought Serb paramilitaries to heel in Bosnia, pushed Serb regulars out of Kosovo, and hastened the end of Slobodan Milosevic’s genocidal rule. The toppling of the Taliban after 9/11, which saw the US use airpower as a force-multiplier for indigenous fighters on the ground is but one more example. Finally, Operation Inherent Resolve leveraged airpower to assist ground units in rolling back ISIS in Iraq and Syria.</p>
<p>Of course, no one wants American warplanes directly engaging the Russian military. But it pays to recall that it is already happening on a routine basis—near <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/us-fighters-intercept-russian-aircraft-off-alaska-time/story?id=124943654">Alaskan</a> <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/us-fighters-intercept-russian-aircraft-off-alaska-time/story?id=124943654">airspace</a>, over the <a href="https://ac.nato.int/archive/2022/nato-fighters-intercept-russian-aircraft-over-the-baltic-sea-and-in-the-high-north-">Baltic Sea</a>, across <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/us-news-jets-intercept-russia-military-plane-carl-vinson-sea-japan-2051209">Pacific Ocean</a>, and in the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/syria-russia-us-aircraft-intercept-unsafe-3a88593f3e051286424b2262d18a22af">Middle East</a>. Moreover, given recent encounters between American and Russian <a href="https://thewarhorse.org/special-forces-soldiers-reveal-first-details-of-battle-with-russian-mercenaries-in-syria/">forces</a>—and American and Russian <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/us-air-weapons-show-dominance-israels-strike-iran-2085074">hardware</a>—it seems unlikely Putin’s high command will want to challenge American airpower along or above a future Ukraine-Russia DMZ.</p>
<p>That brings to light a second set of historical lessons. Neither lingering territorial disputes nor simmering hostilities are dealbreakers when it comes to providing security guarantees to allies and partners in the crosshairs. Consider post–World War II Germany. After a period of disarmament and occupation, the country’s western half was rearmed and invited into NATO as a full member, despite massive Soviet bloc armies ringing West Berlin and despite West Germany facing an overwhelming military disadvantage across a heavily armed border.</p>
<p>In fact, the US did not formally recognize the post–World War II <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/helsinki">territorial-political settlement</a> in Germany or across Europe until <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Helsinki-Accords">1975</a>. The people of West Germany never abandoned their hopes for German reunification. Those hopes were not realized until 1990.</p>
<p>Next, consider post–World War II Japan. The Red Army seized Japanese islands at the end of the war. To this day, Tokyo <a href="https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/russia/territory/overview.html">does not recognize</a> Russian control over those islands. Despite this territorial dispute, the United States guaranteed Japan’s security in <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/japan001.asp">1951</a> and entered into a full-fledged mutual-defense treaty in <a href="https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/russia/territory/overview.html">1960</a>. That treaty is still in force today.</p>
<p>Last, consider the Korean Peninsula. Despite territorial disagreements; despite the absence of a peace treaty; and despite, or perhaps because of, the threat posed by a massive hostile army north of the 38th Parallel, the US provided open-ended security guarantees to South Korea in the autumn of <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/kor001.asp">1953</a>. Those security guarantees are still in force. The people of South Korea still look forward to unification of the two Koreas under the banner of freedom. South Korea even has a <a href="https://www.korea.net/Government/Administration/Cabinet">cabinet-level</a> government <a href="https://unikorea.go.kr/eng_unikorea/about/ministers/minister/biography/">ministry</a> focused on unification.</p>
<p><strong>Predator</strong></p>
<p>In none of these examples did the US or its allies agree to the permanent ceding of territory. Rather, they recognized the difficulty of liberating occupied territory and they envisioned the future prospect of the return of that territory. That is how Ukraine and its partners should view the imperfect peace that will emerge in the coming months—a peace that will leave some of Ukraine’s territory under Putin’s control.</p>
<p>It is also worth emphasizing that a European-led, US-supported peacekeeping force in Ukraine is necessary given Putin’s policies and plans: Moscow occupies swaths of Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine; threatens <a href="https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/07/21/poland-must-be-reminded-its-western-territories-were-gift-from-stalin-says-putin/">Poland</a>; is conducting a campaign of <a href="https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2025/08/the-scale-of-russian--sabotage-operations--against-europes-critical--infrastructure/">sabotage operations</a> across NATO’s footprint; has moved nuclear weapons into Belarus; is firing off intermediate-range <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/01/10/the-threat-of-intermediate-range-missiles-returns-to-europe_6736893_4.html">missiles</a>; and is diverting 35 percent of government spending into its war machine. As French President Emmanuel Macron concluded, Putin is “a predator…at our doorstep.” Putin will not stop until he is stopped. Securing Ukraine—while continuing the <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm">build-up</a> of deterrent forces on NATO’s eastern flank—is key to stopping Putin.</p>
<p><em>Alan W. Dowd leads the Sagamore Institute</em> <em>Center for America’s Purpose.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Trumps-Path-to-an-Imperfect-Peace-in-Ukraine.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="205" height="57" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 205px) 100vw, 205px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/trumps-path-to-an-imperfect-peace-in-ukraine/">Trump’s Path to an Imperfect Peace in Ukraine</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>Why SECDEF Austin’s Secret Hospitalization Really Mattered</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/why-secdef-austins-secret-hospitalization-really-mattered/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Curtis McGiffin&nbsp;&&nbsp;Adam Lowther]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jan 2024 13:33:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<category><![CDATA[Deterrence & Foreign Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[defense department]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nuclear Deterrence]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[secretary of defense]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s recent hospitalization and revelations that key Pentagon and White House leaders, including President Biden, were unaware of his “incapacitation” for five days is concerning. The reason for such concern should transcend political criticism. Indeed, the real concern regarding the secretary’s uninformed absence relates to the negative impact on America’s nuclear [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/why-secdef-austins-secret-hospitalization-really-mattered/">Why SECDEF Austin’s Secret Hospitalization Really Mattered</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s recent hospitalization and revelations that key Pentagon and White House leaders, including President Biden, were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/did-pentagon-chief-austins-secret-hospitalization-break-rules-2024-01-09/">unaware of his “incapacitation” for five days</a> is concerning. The reason for such concern should transcend political criticism. Indeed, the real concern regarding the secretary’s uninformed absence relates to the negative impact on America’s nuclear deterrent.</p>
<p>One of the most valuable qualities of American nuclear credibility is its incorporation of responsible authority to ensure nuclear command and control (<a href="https://www.acq.osd.mil/ncbdp/nm/NMHB2020rev/chapters/chapter2.html">NC2</a>), which is the exercise of authority and direction over nuclear weapons by the president as the chief executive and head of state. According to the Congressional Research Service’s <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10521"><em>Defense Primer</em></a><em>: Command and Control of Nuclear Forces</em>:</p>
<p>The US President has sole authority to authorize the use of US nuclear weapons. This authority is inherent in his constitutional role as Commander in Chief. The President can seek counsel from appropriate military advisors; those advisors are then required to transmit and implement the orders authorizing nuclear use. The President does not need the concurrence of the US Congress to order the launch of nuclear weapons, and neither the military nor Congress can overrule these orders.</p>
<p>The US Constitution and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 <a href="https://www.usa.gov/presidential-succession">provide a framework for the order of succession</a> in the event of presidential incapacity or demise. If a president cannot fulfill the duties of the office, including those of NC2, another designated government leader will take over in a specific order. The secretary of Defense is sixth in line for the presidency, following the vice president, speaker of the House, president pro tempore of the Senate, secretary of State, and secretary of the Treasury. Any cabinet member or elected official in an office identified in the line of succession, but is <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2008/05/presidential-eligibility-and-the-line-of-succession/">not a natural-born citizen</a>, cannot become president.</p>
<p>In addition to being one of the president’s key advisors during a nuclear decision event, the secretary of Defense is a key “designated survivor” option for presidential succession planning. During the Eisenhower administration, officials introduced “continuity of government” to prepare for a possible Soviet nuclear attack. Maintaining constitutional legitimacy during the Cold War was important if the president or his successor were killed. Because of the awesome responsibility, those in presidential succession <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/state-union-designated-survivor/story?id=28329585">receive appropriate training</a>. Knowing where each of those government officials identified in the presidential line of succession, like the secretary of Defense, remains paramount to national survival.</p>
<p>Two congressmen, Jimmy Panetta and Ted Lieu, <a href="https://ucs-documents.s3.amazonaws.com/global-security/letter-president-biden-nuclear-command-and-control-authority.pdf">requested</a> President Biden “consider modifying the decision-making process the United States uses in its command and control of nuclear forces.” The congressional authors noted, “You alone possess the authority to order the use of nuclear weapons, which assures that nuclear weapons remain under civilian control.” They also advocated that the secretary of Defense be required to certify that the “launch order is valid,” presumably even in a second-strike nuclear retaliation. However, adding this caveat to the president’s already compressed nuclear decision timeline could lead to negative impacts, especially in light of Austin’s incapacitation.</p>
<p>By the 1950s it was well known that the president’s office is vulnerable to a decapitation strike, especially a nuclear one. According to a 1975 Institute for Defense Analysis Study, “<a href="https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA331702.pdf">The unique role</a> of the President as the Commander in Chief, as well as Chief Executive, and his particular statutory powers with regard to nuclear weapons, made the survival of the presidency—the office if not the man, indispensable for legitimate nuclear action.” A 1969 blue ribbon defense panel convened by President Nixon <a href="https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/19348-national-security-archive-doc-20-l-wainstein-et">concluded</a>:</p>
<p>It is stated US policy to retaliate only in the event of unmistakable attack, only by decision of the President or his constitutional successor, and with discrimination according to the source, magnitude, and type of attack to perform as desired [in an] environment of nuclear war would be extremely difficult at best. Yet, the possibility of a disruption of command which would either immobilize retaliatory forces, subject them to piecemeal destruction, or bring about a weak or uncoordinated response which an enemy might feel he could cope with, might offer an aggressor too tempting an objective and thereby dangerously weaken deterrence.</p>
<p>In order for nuclear deterrence to be effective, potential aggressors must view the United States’ nuclear capabilities, architecture, and process as credible. This means that the president must have his key advisors (secretary of Defense and US Strategic Command commander) available to assist in decision-making, and succession must be reliable and contribute to shaping the adversary’s decision calculus.</p>
<p>On the worst of days, good advice and presidential continuity is crucial in ensuring that a decision to retaliate can be made. To achieve this, the secretary of Defense or his clear designee must be available to the president. The ability to maintain credible nuclear command and control is essential to America’s deterrence threat.</p>
<p>Dr. Adam Lowther is Vice President for Research at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. Col Curtis McGiffin (U.S. Air Force, Ret.) is Vice President for Education at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies and visiting professor at Missouri State University’s School of Defense and Strategic Studies. Together, they have more than five decades of experience in uniform and DoD civil service serving America’s nuclear enterprise. Both authors co-host the popular weekly podcast: “The NIDS View” found on <a class="fui-Link ___1rxvrpe f2hkw1w f3rmtva f1ewtqcl fyind8e f1k6fduh f1w7gpdv fk6fouc fjoy568 figsok6 f1hu3pq6 f11qmguv f19f4twv f1tyq0we f1g0x7ka fhxju0i f1qch9an f1cnd47f fqv5qza f1vmzxwi f1o700av f13mvf36 f1cmlufx f9n3di6 f1ids18y f1tx3yz7 f1deo86v f1eh06m1 f1iescvh fhgqx19 f1olyrje f1p93eir f1nev41a f1h8hb77 f1lqvz6u f10aw75t fsle3fq f17ae5zn" title="https://thinkdeterrence.com/podcast-shows/" href="https://thinkdeterrence.com/podcast-shows/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" aria-label="Link https://thinkdeterrence.com/podcast-shows/">https://thinkdeterrence.com/podcast-shows/</a></p>
<p>The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own.</p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Why-SECDEF-Austins-Secret-Hospitalization-Really-Mattered.pdf"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-26665 size-medium" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Download-This-Publication-300x83.png" alt="Get this publication" width="300" height="83" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Download-This-Publication-300x83.png 300w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Download-This-Publication.png 450w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/why-secdef-austins-secret-hospitalization-really-mattered/">Why SECDEF Austin’s Secret Hospitalization Really Mattered</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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