English is gradually replacing Russian as the most common foreign language spoken in Mongolia, as Western corporations control increasingly large segments of the Mongolian mining industry. The mineral sector is the most essential part of the Mongolian economy. The former Soviet satellite state has approximately ten percent world’s known coal reserves.

Two companies dominate the Mongolian mining industry—Oyu Tolgoi and Tavan Tolgoi. Oyu Tolgoi, two-thirds of which is owned by Canadian and British-Australian firms, is the dominant player in the Mongolian mining sector. Despite its poor environmental record, the Canadian mining giant Rio Tinto is increasingly influential within Mongolia. Following a 2013 disagreement between the company and the Mongolian government, Ulaanbaatar was forced to fire Tserenbat Sedvachig, the executive director of Erdenes Oyu Tolgoi, the state-owned company that controls the remaining third of Oyu Tolgoi.

The second major corporation in the Mongolian mining industry is the state-owned Tavan Tolgoi. Mongolian lawmakers recently approved a plan to sell up to thirty percent of the Tavan Tolgoi coal mine, with the government officials expressing their hopes that Rio Tinto will have to maintain a level of “working cooperation” with the Mongolian mining giant.

Mining accounts for approximately one-third of Mongolia’s GDP. Mineral commodities comprise a little over eighty-nine percent of the country’s total exports. Although Western corporations like Rio Tinto maintain a strong level of influence over the country’s economy, China imports the majority of Mongolian exports. In contrast, Russia’s involvement in the Mongolian economy plummeted in the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse.

By the 1990s, Mongolian trade with Russia declined by around eighty percent, as China’s diplomatic relationship with and economic influence over Mongolia increased. In recent years, however, Russia has sought to rebuild its ties with Mongolia to enhance its standing as a regional power. The Russian government wrote off ninety-eight percent of Mongolia’s state debt, and an agreement was signed to build an oil pipeline from Russia to China through Mongolia.

The Mongolian public retains a certain amount of nostalgia for Russia, and a recent flight of Western investment has reinforced such sentiments. During the Soviet era, Mongolia was considered the USSR’s unofficial 16th republic, with most people in the country being able to speak and understand Russian.

Today, the Russian language is far less popular with Mongolians, especially among the youth. Furthermore, even though the Cyrillic alphabet is the country’s official alphabet, young Mongolians increasingly use the Latin alphabet on their phones and social media. Nearly half of all comments made by young Mongolian Facebook users are written in the Latin alphabet, with the remaining portion being in Cyrillic. Going forward, Ulaanbaatar may make an effort to standardize the use of the Latin alphabet, which has been the trend in many former Soviet republics or Soviet aligned-states that used the Cyrillic script in an official capacity.

Russia is not only losing economic influence in Mongolia, but it is also losing cultural influence. English has replaced Russian as the most common foreign language used by many young Mongolians. This adoption is fueled by both migration and the desire to integrate further into the global economy. Even though a significant number of Mongolian schools and universities continue to teach Russian to their students, the presence of Russian culture in the country will continue to decline.

Russian Influence in Mongolia is Declining was originally published on Global Security Review.

Over the last few months, Russian planes have repeatedly violated NATO airspace. Two U.S. fighter jets intercepted Russian bombers over the Arctic Ocean in both September and May of 2018.

In August, British jets were scrambled to investigate provocative Russian incursions into NATO airspace. Increased deployments of military troops and equipment have also been reported in both Crimea and Kaliningrad.

Historically, military buildups have preceded major wars. Is this century different?

The question remains, to what end? Many historians and international relations scholars point to specific events prior to large-scale conflicts in the first half of the 20th century, like the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand or the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor by the Japanese Empire.

However, the world works differently in this century. At least for now, large-scale conventional warfare seems like a remote possibility. Instead, the great power conflicts of this century have thus far been relegated active measures and information warfare campaigns, designed to subvert democratic systems and sow disorder.

Despite the growing tensions on each side of the Atlantic, the most active front seems to be virtual. While the United States and Germany have accused Russia of interfering in their political systems, the primary focus is on defending public opinion in vulnerable countries from Russian manipulation.

One such country is Macedonia, where the conflict between Russia and the West seems to be reaching a boiling point.

With the highly anticipated referendum on a name change, Macedonia has a high chance of joining the EU. It is not a surprise that both the United States and Russia are quite interested in the result of this referendum.

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis even stated that he was, "concerned about…the kind of mischief that Russia has practiced from Estonia to the United States, from Ukraine and now to Macedonia.”

At the very least, it seems less probable that this form of digital proxy war could easily escalate into a violent hybrid conflict.

Growing Chinese-Russian military ties could raise the possibility of conflict nonetheless.

At a visit to the Vostok-2018 training grounds, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu noted that this was just the first of a series of regular training exercises between China and Russia.

While this could just be a sign of closer cooperation between the two countries as relations with Europe and the United States worsen, the large-scale posturing could devolve into a military conflict.

While Russian posturing is effective in deterring foreign aggression and diverting domestic attention away from divisive issues, it could also suggest that actual conflict is not as remote a possibility as we would like to believe.

Despite hopes for peace and reconciliation, countries are allocating more money to their defense departments and military budgets. Conflict is always on the horizon, whether diplomats and politicians prefer to acknowledge it or not.

War remains a realistic possibility, and Russia's actions indicate an effort to prepare for a range of scenarios, ranging from large-scale great power conflict to smaller-scale proxy wars in its periphery.

Russia’s Military Buildup: Posturing or Preparation? was originally published on Global Security Review.

From September 11 to 15, Russia will hold its largest war games since 1981. The exercise is called Vostok-2018 and will involve more than 300,000 troops, two Russian naval fleets, more than 1,000 military aircraft and all of Russia’s airborne units.

Chinese and Mongolian military units will participate alongside Russian forces. Despite Russia not being obligated to do so as the exercises will be held to the east of the Ural Mountains, NATO military attachés were invited to observe the exercises.

In justifying Moscow’s reasoning for holding Vostok-2018, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov asserted Russia’s right to self-defense, noting that the international community is increasingly hostile towards Russia.

Moscow has cited the steady increase of NATO forces deployed in eastern Europe and the United States’ ship-based Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System deployed in Japan as evidence of a Western military buildup.

Russia, however, has been increasingly aggressive in developing and demonstrating its military capabilities. Russian warships have been deployed to the Mediterranean Sea, part of the country’s largest naval presence in the Mediterranean since 2015.

Russia’s Mediterranean fleet is comprised of ten vessels in total, each armed with long-range Kalibr cruise missiles. More provocative, British Royal Air Force fighter jets twice intercepted Russian military aircraft over the Black Sea in a single week in August.

War games are often a response to escalating tensions.

More often than not, war games are a way to demonstrate power-projection capabilities. The Vostok-2018 military exercises are a predictable reaction to increasing economic sanctions and perceived threats to the Kremlin’s hold on power.

While coverage of the Russian annexation of Crimea seems to have stagnated in the international media, the issue continues to be of interest to Russian officials. Serhiy Kostynsky, a member of the National Council for TV and Radio Broadcasting in Ukraine, discussed Russian transmissions jamming Ukrainian frequencies in Crimea and neighboring provinces within unoccupied Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government has constructed taller radio towers to combat Russian interference, but the Russian operations will likely continue. Concurrently, Russian “active measures,” or information warfare operations, spread fake news propaganda throughout the Baltic states.

While operations such as these may seem insignificant, they reveal the degree of aggression Russia is willing to employ to secure its interests. Information warfare, whether through the dissemination of fake news or jamming radio signals, is a cornerstone of Russia’s response to what it perceives as NATO expansionism.

Every Russian action merits a reaction.

While Russia may continue to employ subversive measures in addition to increasing the frequency and scope of its war games, its actions are not without consequence. In 2018, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko withdrew Ukraine from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), an organization comprised of former Soviet republics.

In August 2018, Ukraine officially closed its offices in all CIS member states. Again, this action may seem purely political in nature, but Ukraine’s departure is viewed in Russia an unacceptable move against what it sees as its traditional sphere of influence.

On the military front, the U.S. Navy reactivated its Second Fleet responsible for combatting Russia’s presence in the North Atlantic Ocean. The Second Fleet was initially formed in 1950 as a response to a Soviet force buildup. The Second Fleet’s reactivation is a high-level indicator of the increasing tensions between the U.S. and Russia.

War games can also distract from internal difficulties.

War games, much like actual conflict, have been used to distract from lackluster economic performance, diverting the attention of disaffected citizens. A planned increase in the retirement age sent Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings from 80 percent to 64 percent.

The original plan to raise the retirement age was scrapped after tens of thousands of Russians rallied throughout the country. The scale and coverage of the Vostok-2018 war games will likely soothe internal tensions, as coverage of the proposed increase of the retirement age is overshadowed by coverage of the military exercises.

Judging the Impact of Vostok-2018

On the one hand, regarding demonstrating the ability to mobilize military resources, Vostok-2018 will most be judged as a success by the Kremlin. Any form of mass military mobilization is done with the intent of maximizing the perception of power and strength.

On the other hand, it remains to be seen as to how effective the war games will be in tempering domestic discontent. Domestic Russian rhetoric regularly projects anti-Western viewpoints, so it is plausible the Vostok-2018 war games will serve to amplify this narrative.

The Levada Center, an independent Russian polling organization, stated in July 2018 that 19 percent of respondents supported the ‘Russia for Russians’ slogan—almost double the percentage of respondents asked the same question one year ago.

Given Russia’s documented success in manipulating public opinion through propaganda and control of the media, the Vostok-2018 war games will likely increase the nationalist fervor within Russia, at the expense of discontent directed towards the country’s stagnating economy and unpopular pension reforms.

Vostok-2018: Russia’s Largest War Games Since 1981 was originally published on Global Security Review.