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		<title>Beyond the Next Administration: Building Enduring Tech–Government Alliances for National Power</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/beyond-the-next-administration-building-enduring-tech-government-alliances-for-national-power/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/beyond-the-next-administration-building-enduring-tech-government-alliances-for-national-power/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Sharpe]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Dec 2025 13:14:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[AI & Deterrence]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=31969</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The tech industry can increase the nation’s trust in government by becoming a reliable and visibly accountable partner for securing America’s technological edge. Specifically, the tech industry can help Congress codify critical capabilities in law and funding provisions that outlast political cycles. Doing so successfully will require long-term relationships with legislators, bipartisan support, and clear [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/beyond-the-next-administration-building-enduring-tech-government-alliances-for-national-power/">Beyond the Next Administration: Building Enduring Tech–Government Alliances for National Power</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The tech industry can increase the nation’s trust in government by becoming a reliable and visibly accountable partner for securing America’s technological edge. Specifically, the tech industry can help Congress codify critical capabilities in law and funding provisions that outlast political cycles. Doing so successfully will require long-term relationships with legislators, bipartisan support, and clear safeguards that reassure the public that powerful technologies are used in the best interest of the nation.<a href="https://www.edelman.com/trust/2025/trust-barometer">[1</a>]​</p>
<p><strong>Why Trust and Continuity Matter</strong></p>
<p>Recent trust surveys show that public confidence in both government and business has declined, with many people believing institutional leaders are not honest with them. The 2025 Edelman Trust Barometer, for example, highlights a “crisis of grievance,” in which large segments of the population feel left behind and are more inclined to distrust complex policy and technology initiatives.<a href="https://cooleypubco.com/2025/02/11/2025-edelman-trust-barometer-grievance/">[2</a>]​</p>
<p>This erosion of trust is particularly dangerous at a time when artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and advanced biotechnologies are central to economic and military competition. A report submitted to Congress by U.S.–China policy experts emphasizes that both countries now treat these technologies as strategic industries, tying them directly to national power and long-term security.[<u>4]</u>​</p>
<p><strong>Building Durable Relationships with Legislators</strong></p>
<p>For technology companies, increasing national trust starts with treating Congress as a long‑term strategic partner, not simply as an annual budget gatekeeper.<a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/2024_Annual_Report_to_Congress.pdf">[4]</a>​</p>
<ul>
<li>Institutionalize bipartisan technology engagement: Firms can create recurring, nonpartisan briefings and workshops with relevant committees to explain how artificial intelligence (AI), quantum, cyber, and bio tools affect national resilience, economic competitiveness, and workforce opportunity. By engaging members and staff from both parties, companies reduce the perception that emerging technologies are aligned with a single political faction.<a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/2024_Annual_Report_to_Congress.pdf">[5]</a>​</li>
<li>Lead with ethics, safety, and security: Research on public attitudes toward AI suggests people are more supportive when they see clear safeguards, transparency, and accountability mechanisms within the tech industry. Companies can build trust by proactively presenting their AI safety frameworks, data-protection policies, and supply‑chain security measures, aligning them with federal guidance and international norms on responsible technology use.<a href="https://www.edelman.com/sites/g/files/aatuss191/files/2025-01/Global%20Top%2010%202025%20Trust%20Barometer.pdf">[6]</a>​</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Securing Sustained Funding for Critical Technology</strong></p>
<p>Trust is reinforced when technology programs are clearly tied to enduring strategic missions and supported through stable, multi‑year funding rather than fragile pilots.<a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/2024_Annual_Report_to_Congress.pdf">[5]</a>​</p>
<ul>
<li>Connect capabilities to mission portfolios: Instead of scattered line items, technology programs can be organized into mission‑driven portfolios—such as quantum‑resilient communications, AI‑enabled national preparedness, or biosecurity infrastructure—that span research, prototyping, and deployment over several years. Multi‑year authorizations and appropriations make it harder for any single administration to abruptly cancel essential capabilities.<a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/Chapter_3--U.S.-China_Competition_in_Emerging_Technologies.pdf">[4]</a>​</li>
<li>Use innovation tools that protect both government and industry: Policy analyses highlight the value of mechanisms like Other Transaction Authority and structured public‑private partnerships to bring nontraditional vendors into national security and infrastructure work more quickly. By pairing these tools with clearer intellectual property protections and streamlined oversight, legislators can encourage top-tier tech firms to stay engaged in sensitive missions over the long term.<a href="https://ptacts.uspto.gov/ptacts/public-informations/petitions/1558121/download-documents?artifactId=z4DLuAiI8FBq5qxTCRlq-VPk-yx0lU4p_Mou2oSkOWL2OdIfZr8DAG4">[8]</a>​</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Embedding Technology in Law, Not Just Budgets</strong></p>
<p>To prevent critical technologies from being swapped out with each political shift, their roles must be written into statute and tied to democratic oversight.<a href="https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/white-house-releases-2025-national-7517228/">[9]</a>​</p>
<ul>
<li>Statutory roles for key technologies: Laws governing defense planning, critical infrastructure, and economic security should explicitly call for the use of AI, secure digital infrastructure, and advanced analytics in defined mission areas, such as threat detection, disaster response, and supply‑chain monitoring. Once these roles are codified, dismantling them requires visible legislative action rather than quiet executive changes.<a href="https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/white-house-releases-2025-national-7517228/">[9]</a>​</li>
<li>Multi-stakeholder governance in legislation: Legislated advisory councils and oversight boards that include government, industry, academia, and civil society should supervise high-impact technologies and publish regular reports. This structure signals that powerful tools are subject to ongoing, pluralistic scrutiny rather than being controlled solely by political appointees or corporate executives.<a href="https://www.biotech.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/NSCEB-Full-Report-%E2%80%93-Digital-%E2%80%934.28.pdf">[10]</a>​</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Quantum Networking Testbed Infrastructure</strong></p>
<p>The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) put forth by Congress each year does not typically use a single, generic phrase like “quantum networking testbeds” in isolation; instead, it authorizes and directs specific programs and experiments that collectively constitute quantum networking testbed infrastructure. Several provisions and related authoritative documents are especially relevant to the future of quantum technology growth.</p>
<p>A Senate Armed Services Committee fact sheet on the fiscal year 2024 NDAA highlights language that “authorizes increased funding for a distributed quantum networking testbed” and the development of a next-generation ion‑trap quantum computer at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). While the fact sheet summarizes rather than reproduces the statutory text, it makes clear that Congress explicitly authorized a distributed quantum networking testbed as part of the defense Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&amp;E) portfolio.<a href="https://defensescoop.com/2024/01/08/ndaa-2024-quantum-provisions/">[12]</a>​</p>
<p>Within the fiscal year 2025 NDAA, Congress, “authorizes funding to create a ‘quantum communications corridor’ as part of Navy research, development, test, and evaluation.” This is an explicit description of support for a testbed or network to advance quantum communication research so the Navy and the Department of Defense (DoD) can securely transmit information resistant to quantum computer decryption.<a href="https://www.emergingtechnologiesinstitute.org/publications/insights/fy2025ndaa">[15]</a>​</p>
<p>Other recent NDAA cycles also include broader direction that reinforces these testbed authorizations, such as requirements for DoD to establish pilot programs for promising quantum computing capabilities and to identify near‑term use cases that can be fielded within two years. These provisions do not always use the word “testbed” in the operative clause, but they direct the department to stand up experimental infrastructure and pilots that, in practice, operate as quantum networking and computing testbeds for defense applications.<a href="https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2024/12/fy2025-ndaa-angles-enhance-dods-ai-and-quantum-sciences-capabilities/401545/">[16]</a>​</p>
<p>In parallel, the National Quantum Initiative framework and associated Department of Energy (DOE) efforts describe quantum networking testbeds as shared infrastructure for entanglement distribution and quantum communications, and Congressional action has repeatedly referenced these federal testbeds and network efforts as part of the broader quantum information science ecosystem that the DoD can leverage.<a href="https://www.quantum.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/NQIA2018-NDAA2022-CHIPS2022.pdf">[13]</a>​</p>
<p>Ensuring key technologies not only protect the nation but are also provided with substantial investment and economic promise is a necessity for companies to further their developmental efforts. Demonstrating that quantum technologies are viable for multiple applications—within internal defense and external partnerships—is one possible solution as tech companies become increasingly concerned with the long-term payoff of their test bed programs. For now, defense authorization bills appear to be the most forward leaning avenue supported by government, but the long-term stability of this method has yet to be validated.</p>
<p><strong>How This Approach Builds Public Trust</strong></p>
<p>When the tech industry engages both parties and chambers in Congress, supports multi-year statutory programs, and accepts meaningful oversight, it demonstrates that emerging technologies are being developed within a framework of law, ethics, and long-term national interest. In such a system, citizens can see that AI, quantum computing, and other advanced capabilities are not partisan experiments or purely profit-driven ventures, but part of a durable national strategy subject to democratic control.<a href="https://www.edelman.com/news-awards/2025-edelman-trust-barometer-reveals-high-level-grievance">[2]</a>​</p>
<p>The tech sector can both strengthen U.S. strategic competitiveness and contribute tangibly to rebuilding public trust in government by positioning itself as a co-steward of national resilience, helping design governance mechanisms, committing to transparency, and working with legislators to hard‑wire critical technologies into law and funding.<a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/Chapter_3--U.S.-China_Competition_in_Emerging_Technologies.pdf">[5]</a>​</p>
<p>Sources:</p>
<ol>
<li><a href="https://www.edelman.com/trust/2025/trust-barometer">https://www.edelman.com/trust/2025/trust-barometer</a></li>
<li><a href="https://cooleypubco.com/2025/02/11/2025-edelman-trust-barometer-grievance/">https://cooleypubco.com/2025/02/11/2025-edelman-trust-barometer-grievance/</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.edelman.com/news-awards/2025-edelman-trust-barometer-reveals-high-level-grievance">https://www.edelman.com/news-awards/2025-edelman-trust-barometer-reveals-high-level-grievance</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/Chapter_3--U.S.-China_Competition_in_Emerging_Technologies.pdf">https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/Chapter_3&#8211;U.S.-China_Competition_in_Emerging_Technologies.pdf</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/2024_Annual_Report_to_Congress.pdf">https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/2024_Annual_Report_to_Congress.pdf</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.edelman.com/sites/g/files/aatuss191/files/2025-01/Global%20Top%2010%202025%20Trust%20Barometer.pdf">https://www.edelman.com/sites/g/files/aatuss191/files/2025-01/Global%20Top%2010%202025%20Trust%20Barometer.pdf</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.nationalsecurity.ai/chapter/executive-summary">https://www.nationalsecurity.ai/chapter/executive-summary</a></li>
<li><a href="https://ptacts.uspto.gov/ptacts/public-informations/petitions/1558121/download-documents?artifactId=z4DLuAiI8FBq5qxTCRlq-VPk-yx0lU4p_Mou2oSkOWL2OdIfZr8DAG4">https://ptacts.uspto.gov/ptacts/public-informations/petitions/1558121/download-documents?artifactId=z4DLuAiI8FBq5qxTCRlq-VPk-yx0lU4p_Mou2oSkOWL2OdIfZr8DAG4</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/white-house-releases-2025-national-7517228/">https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/white-house-releases-2025-national-7517228/</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.biotech.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/NSCEB-Full-Report-%E2%80%93-Digital-%E2%80%934.28.pdf">https://www.biotech.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/NSCEB-Full-Report-%E2%80%93-Digital-%E2%80%934.28.pdf</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.imd.org/ibyimd/audio-articles/restoring-faith-in-leadership-in-the-age-of-grievance/">https://www.imd.org/ibyimd/audio-articles/restoring-faith-in-leadership-in-the-age-of-grievance/</a></li>
<li><a href="https://defensescoop.com/2024/01/08/ndaa-2024-quantum-provisions/">https://defensescoop.com/2024/01/08/ndaa-2024-quantum-provisions/</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.quantum.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/NQIA2018-NDAA2022-CHIPS2022.pdf">https://www.quantum.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/NQIA2018-NDAA2022-CHIPS2022.pdf</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.quantum.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/NQI-Annual-Report-FY2025.pdf">https://www.quantum.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/NQI-Annual-Report-FY2025.pdf</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.emergingtechnologiesinstitute.org/publications/insights/fy2025ndaa">https://www.emergingtechnologiesinstitute.org/publications/insights/fy2025ndaa</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2024/12/fy2025-ndaa-angles-enhance-dods-ai-and-quantum-sciences-capabilities/401545/">https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2024/12/fy2025-ndaa-angles-enhance-dods-ai-and-quantum-sciences-capabilities/401545/</a></li>
</ol>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Beyond-the-Next-Administration-Building-Enduring-TechGovernment-Alliances-for-National-Power.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="256" height="71" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 256px) 100vw, 256px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/beyond-the-next-administration-building-enduring-tech-government-alliances-for-national-power/">Beyond the Next Administration: Building Enduring Tech–Government Alliances for National Power</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>Hypersonic Weapons: Are We Entering a New Era of Vulnerability?</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/hypersonic-weapons-are-we-entering-a-new-era-of-vulnerability/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/hypersonic-weapons-are-we-entering-a-new-era-of-vulnerability/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brandon Toliver]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 May 2025 12:09:30 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=30673</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The advent of hypersonic weapons, with their unparalleled speed and maneuverability, ignited a global debate about the future of strategic security. Some argue these weapons unwittingly ushered in an era where traditional defenses are rendered obsolete, leaving nations exposed to swift and devastating attacks. The emergence of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) and hypersonic cruise missiles [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/hypersonic-weapons-are-we-entering-a-new-era-of-vulnerability/">Hypersonic Weapons: Are We Entering a New Era of Vulnerability?</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The advent of hypersonic weapons, with their unparalleled speed and maneuverability, ignited a global debate about the future of strategic security. Some argue these weapons unwittingly ushered in an era where traditional defenses are rendered obsolete, leaving nations exposed to swift and devastating attacks. The emergence of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCM) prompts a fundamental reassessment of assumptions about deterrence and defense.</p>
<p>Hypersonic weapons, capable of exceeding Mach 5 with unpredictable flight paths, <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjDyqS03ISMAxXdSDABHdn2BmUQ-NANegQIShAG&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.csis.org%2Fanalysis%2Fcomplex-air-defense-countering-hypersonic-missile-threat-0%23%3A~%3Atext%3DI%2520think%2520it%27s%2520a%2520number%2Cto%2520adequately%2520address%2520the%2520threat.&amp;usg=AOvVaw3XVxaqX_L8zs0rOiDfXyxI&amp;opi=89978449">shatter the bedrock principles</a> of conventional missile defense. Their ability to glide and maneuver within the atmosphere allows them to evade radar detection and interceptor systems, compressing warning times to mere minutes. This drastic reduction in reaction time amplifies the risk of miscalculations and accidental escalation, particularly in moments of crisis.</p>
<p>The global balance of power is being fundamentally altered, not merely adjusted, by the aggressive pursuit of maneuverable hypersonic weapon capabilities. China’s DF-17 hypersonic missile, coupled with its reported testing of a fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) with a hypersonic payload, demonstrates a clear intent to achieve <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjZvb7O3ISMAxVQM9AFHQYhEjgQFnoECCMQAQ&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.defense.gov%2F2023%2FOct%2F19%2F2003323409%2F-1%2F-1%2F1%2F2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF&amp;usg=AOvVaw071h0Fy5906vIE-xj7tnoR&amp;opi=89978449">global strike capabilities with minimal warning</a>. Russia’s deployment of the Avangard HGV on its SS-19 intercontinental ballistic missiles and the operational status of the <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwimx7rg3ISMAxX3JNAFHdOhCP4QFnoECBYQAQ&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fjamestown.org%2Fprogram%2Fthe-role-of-hypersonic-weapons-in-russian-military-strategy%2F&amp;usg=AOvVaw3n36uTFyvfkRCtN8vA3S-g&amp;opi=89978449">Zircon hypersonic</a> anti-ship missile further highlight the growing proliferation of these advanced weapons. North Korea’s claim of <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjQ2_zs3ISMAxVm8MkDHV_GL5YQFnoECCAQAQ&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fthediplomat.com%2Ftag%2Fnorth-korea-hypersonic-missile%2F&amp;usg=AOvVaw20bRg4HsjuR_uIgDgG7ptn&amp;opi=89978449">successful hypersonic missile tests</a>, while requiring verification, signal a potential integration of these weapons into its theater nuclear strategy, adding another layer of complexity to regional security.</p>
<p>The inherent capacity of maneuverable hypersonic weapons to render existing missile defense systems obsolete signifies not just a technological leap, but a deliberate dismantling of established strategic certainties. The unpredictability of their flight paths and the compression of warning times do not just complicate defense planning; they erode the very foundation of strategic stability, where deterrence relies on the certainty of retaliation. The potential for these weapons to carry both conventional and nuclear payloads does not just increase their versatility; it blurs the lines between conventional and nuclear conflict, creating a perilous ambiguity that heightens the risk of miscalculation.</p>
<p>The ability to strike targets with minimal warning does not just enhance offensive capabilities; it creates a coercive tool, enabling states to exert pressure and achieve strategic objectives without resorting to large-scale conventional warfare. The potential for hypersonic weapons to be deployed in a first-strike role does not just raise concerns about escalation; it fundamentally alters the calculus of deterrence, where the threat of retaliation may no longer be sufficient to prevent aggression.</p>
<p>To counter this burgeoning vulnerability, the United States must not merely react, but fundamentally redefine its strategic posture, acknowledging that piecemeal technological solutions are insufficient to address the profound shift hypersonic weapons impose on the security landscape. The rapid development of the glide phase interceptor (GPI) and space-based tracking systems is not just about enhancing missile defense; it is about restoring a sense of strategic stability, reassuring allies and deterring potential adversaries. The expansion of conventional hypersonic programs, such as the AGM-183 ARRW, conventional prompt strike, and the long-range hypersonic weapon, is not just about developing counterforce capabilities; it is about demonstrating a commitment to <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiMkcr93ISMAxXy78kDHb_0AS0QFnoECCIQAQ&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gao.gov%2Fproducts%2Fgao-24-106792&amp;usg=AOvVaw2jIDDvLxHHcvNklw37Y8Mg&amp;opi=89978449">maintaining a credible deterrent</a>, signaling to potential adversaries that aggression will be met with a swift and decisive response. The integration of hypersonic weapons into existing military doctrines does not just require tactical adjustments; it demands a fundamental reevaluation of strategic thinking, adapting to a new era of high-speed warfare.</p>
<p>The international community’s response to hypersonic weapons must not be limited to national defense initiatives; it must include a concerted effort to promote arms control and transparency. The absence of clear <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwigzbuP3YSMAxWsRTABHY1wDBgQ-NANegQIKxAC&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Funidir.org%2Fpublication%2Fthe-implications-of-hypersonic-weapons-for-international-stability-and-arms-control-report-on-a-unidir-unoda-turn-based-exercise%2F%23%3A~%3Atext%3DView%2520or%2520Download%26text%3DIn%2520September%25202019%252C%2520a%2520one%2C%252C%2520UNIDIR%252C%2520Geneva%252C%2520Switzerland.&amp;usg=AOvVaw0Dza55Gx-PQxOYY8KilYUi&amp;opi=89978449">international norms and regulations regarding hypersonic weapons</a> does not just create uncertainty; it fosters a climate of strategic competition, where states are incentivized to develop and deploy these weapons without restraint. The development of transparency and confidence-building measures is not just about reducing the risk of miscalculation; it is about building a foundation for strategic stability, where states can engage in dialogue and cooperation to mitigate the risks posed by these advanced weapons.</p>
<p>Hypersonic weapons represent a paradigm shift in military technology, fundamentally questioning if the world is entering a new era of vulnerability, undermining the foundations of traditional missile defense and reshaping the strategic landscape. Addressing this challenge requires a comprehensive approach that combines technological innovation, strategic adaptation, and international cooperation. Only through a concerted effort can the international community hope to mitigate the risks posed by hypersonic weapons and ensure a more stable and secure future.</p>
<p><em>Brandon Toliver, PhD, serves on the A4 staff of Headquarters Air Force. The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official guidance or position of the United States government, the Department of Defense, the United States Air Force, or the United States Space Force.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Hypersonic-Weapons_-Are-We-Entering-a-New-Era-of-Vulnerability.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="234" height="65" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 234px) 100vw, 234px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/hypersonic-weapons-are-we-entering-a-new-era-of-vulnerability/">Hypersonic Weapons: Are We Entering a New Era of Vulnerability?</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>Deterrence and NATO’s Emerging Security Environment</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/deterrence-and-natos-emerging-security-environment/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Alfirraz Scheers]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Jan 2025 13:16:07 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Allies & Extended Deterrence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Archive]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Adversaries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[anti-submarine warfare]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arctic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[battlefield nuclear weapons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BRICS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[conventional threats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[critical infrastructure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cross-domain deterrence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cyber threats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cyberattacks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deep sea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deterrence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic threats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitical objectives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hybrid threats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[international norms]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[military readiness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[national power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NATO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Korea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear arsenal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nuclear threats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reconnaissance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resilience]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[security environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[space threats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[space-based systems]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>The international security environment is deteriorating rapidly and becoming increasingly dangerous and uncertain. China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia pose a threat to Western interests in multiple domains. Among them are economic, conventional, and nuclear, as well as emerging domains such as cyber and space. The Arctic and the deep sea are also areas where [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/deterrence-and-natos-emerging-security-environment/">Deterrence and NATO’s Emerging Security Environment</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The international security environment is deteriorating rapidly and becoming increasingly dangerous and uncertain. China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia pose a threat to Western interests in multiple domains. Among them are economic, conventional, and nuclear, as well as emerging domains such as cyber and space. The Arctic and the deep sea are also areas where they are challenging the West.</p>
<p>These domains and areas are being weaponized for strategic purposes, as adversaries target cross-domain North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) interests with the intent of weakening the Western security architecture and fragmenting alliance cohesion. The Trump administration must work closely with NATO allies to confront the many challenges that face them.</p>
<p>Strategic challenges, such as the Arctic, deep sea, and space, and the threats they pose require improved joint military readiness, enhanced deterrence by denial capabilities, and improved intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.</p>
<p>“Over the last 15 years,” <a href="https://euro-sd.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/ESD_MDM_Combined-Issue_October-2022.pdf">writes</a> Scott Savits, “the Arctic has become a renewed theatre of military competition…. [T]op Russian officials have referred to the Arctic as Russia’s ‘Mecca,’ and a large fraction of Russia’s economy is based on Arctic fossil fuels and minerals.” Frustrating Russian efforts to gain a strategic advantage in the Arctic is of paramount importance to NATO’s deterrence mission.</p>
<p>Russia gaining an advantage in the Arctic will enhance its ability to establish escalation dominance against NATO in the event of a conflict with the alliance. Deterring Russia from broadening the scope of conflict, by threatening NATO’s vital interests in the Arctic, remains critical in dissuading other adversaries, such as China, from seeking to gain similar advantage.</p>
<p>With China developing and deploying new detection technologies in anti-submarine warfare, American nuclear submarine capabilities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to detection and targeting. China’s “Death Star” satellite claims to possess detection capabilities that renders the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CEKV6SOYdY&amp;t=2264s">ocean transparent</a> for up to 500 meters beneath the surface, putting American submarines at risk.</p>
<p>In the space domain, it is estimated that loss of access to space would come at a cost of roughly <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-case-for-space">One billion pounds</a> per day to the British economy. The reported deployment of Russian <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-03/news/us-warns-new-russian-asat-program">anti-satellite weapons systems</a> (ASAT) in space are clearly coercive moves designed to threaten NATO’s space assets.</p>
<p>Russia’s weaponization of space is especially concerning as NATO depends on space to conduct an array of operations across the spectrum of deterrence and defence. Most notably, NATO airpower relies on space-based and space-dependent systems to fulfil a series of critical security functions. Leveraging robust deterrence capabilities in orbit, through targeting Russian and Chinese space-based military and non-military assets, is critical to securing NATO’s vital interests in space.</p>
<p>Beyond seeking strategic advantage, China is also expanding and modernising its nuclear arsenal at an unprecedented rate since the end of the Cold War. The Pentagon forecasts that China will be a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2023.2295206">nuclear peer</a> of the United States by 2035. The latest figures published by the Federation of American Scientists show that China now possesses at least <a href="https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/">500 operationally deployed nuclear weapons</a>—up 43 percent from <a href="https://thebulletin.org/premium/2020-12/nuclear-notebook-chinese-nuclear-forces-2020/">2020</a>.</p>
<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to undermine international norms by persisting in threats to use battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Russia also deploys dual-use satellite technologies in space, capable of carrying nuclear warheads into orbit, in direct contravention of long-standing international treaties such as the <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html">Outer Space Treaty</a> (1967), which prohibits the weaponization and nuclearization of space.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Iran, a latent nuclear state, coerces the West by threatening the weaponization of its nuclear program. Iran also infiltrated the West by creating <a href="https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-role-of-terrorism-in-iranian-foreign-policy/">extremist networks</a> through community centers, <a href="https://www.iranintl.com/en/202301317124">laundering money</a> in major European and American cities that is used by <a href="https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/foxtrot-rumba-and-iran-who-are-the-criminal-gangs-hired-by-the-irgc/">criminal gangs</a> to plot and execute terrorist attacks.</p>
<p>Proxies supported by Iran, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, can also launch increasingly devastating attacks. Furthermore, attacks like October 7, 2024, or September 11, 2001, do not warrant nuclear retaliation. A nuclear response to a terrorist attack, depending on the attack, is likely a disproportionate response.</p>
<p>China and Russia also engage in subversive activities within the cyber domain, sowing discord by using <a href="https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/how-us-can-counter-disinformation-russia-and-china">disinformation</a>, <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/investigate/counterintelligence/the-china-threat">intellectual property theft</a>, and <a href="https://www.csis.org/programs/europe-russia-and-eurasia-program/projects/russia-and-eurasia/countering-russian-chinese">malign interference</a> to destabilize NATO member states. Cyberattacks on critical national infrastructure can also inflict severe levels of damage. The appropriateness of cross-domain responses is yet to be decided.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2018/10/Ottis2008_AnalysisOf2007FromTheInformationWarfarePerspective.pdf">cyber attacks against Estonia</a> in 2007, which lasted for 22 days, did not result in the triggering of NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause. Yet, it was an attack on a NATO member state. The character of the attack complicated the process by which a viable and appropriate retaliatory response could be devised. In a multidomain threat landscape, hostile state actors conducting their operations in the grey zone can claim plausible deniability.</p>
<p>China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea also hold joint exercises, share intelligence, exchange military capabilities, and share a diplomatic and political kinship. This axis of Western adversaries shares the same geopolitical and economic objectives. They seek to replace the international rules-based order and establish alternative institutional frameworks to global order that undermine concepts such as democracy, human rights, rule of law, and national sovereignty.</p>
<p>Militarily, nowhere is this more apparent than in Russia, where <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-launched-8060-iran-developed-drones-during-war-2024-09-13/">Iranian drones</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-russia-is-deploying-more-north-korean-troops-repel-kursk-2024-12-14/">North Korean soldiers</a> were provided to aid Putin’s war in Ukraine. Politically, emerging international blocs such as the BRICS demonstrate the extent to which countries like China and Russia are gaining traction in driving alternatives to the current order.</p>
<p>“As hybrid threats evolve to encompass the whole of digital and networked societies,” <a href="https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/20220331-Hybrid-CoE-Paper-12-Fifth-wave-of-deterrence-WEB.pdf">wrote</a> Sean Monaghan, “so too will the capabilities required to deter them. A more complex threat environment will make predicting attacks and vulnerabilities more difficult, so nations may rely more on resilience.”</p>
<p>Hence, for deterrence to be effective today, credibility must incorporate more than hard power capabilities. Red lines must be communicated effectively across different channels. Resolve must be demonstrated through a force posture that includes a willingness to establish escalation dominance in a crisis scenario. The art of deterrence is also about determining and holding at risk what an adversary values.</p>
<p>As the outgoing US Secretary of Defence General (Ret.) Lloyd Austin <a href="https://sites.duke.edu/lawfire/2022/01/08/guest-post-dr-frank-hoffman-on-conceptualizing-integrated-deterrence/">said</a> in 2022, cross-domain deterrence “is the right mix of technology, operational concepts, and capabilities—all woven together and networked in a way that is credible, flexible and so formidable that it will give any adversary pause…. [It is] multidomain, spans numerous geographic areas of responsibility, is united with allies and partners, and is fortified by all instruments of national power.”</p>
<p>Ultimately, deterrence is about credibly threatening to impose unacceptable costs, by denial or punishment, on a would-be aggressor. Those costs must convince the would-be aggressor that they outweigh any potential gains made.</p>
<p>Therefore, it is imperative for the US and NATO to increase cross-domain capabilities to match those of adversaries. Adopting a combination of different violent and non-violent means, to conduct deterrence credibly across multiple domains and at various levels of intensity, will enhance NATO’s ability to secure its vital interests in an increasingly volatile era of global strategic competition.</p>
<p><em>Alex Alfirraz Scheers holds a diploma in Politics and History from the Open University, a bachelor’s degree in War Studies and History from King’s College London, and a master’s degree in National Security Studies from King’s College London. He has held research positions at the Henry Jackson Society and the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, and his articles have been published in the </em>Diplomat<em>, </em>Times of Israel<em>, RealClearDefense, and the Royal United Services Institute. Views expressed in this article are the author&#8217;s own. </em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/NATO-NEW-THREATS-NEW-DOMAINS.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852 size-medium" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png" alt="" width="300" height="83" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/deterrence-and-natos-emerging-security-environment/">Deterrence and NATO’s Emerging Security Environment</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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