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		<title>America’s Managed Retreat: How the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy Shifts the Burden to Allies</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/americas-managed-retreat-how-the-2025-u-s-national-security-strategy-shifts-the-burden-to-allies/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sidra Shaukat]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Feb 2026 13:05:03 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=32284</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) is a document that has been written under the shadow of economic strain and military overreach, and it raises the slogan of “America First” while shifting the burden to partners and allies. The document was presented as a thoughtful adjustment of American priorities and speaks the language [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/americas-managed-retreat-how-the-2025-u-s-national-security-strategy-shifts-the-burden-to-allies/">America’s Managed Retreat: How the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy Shifts the Burden to Allies</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) is a document that has been written under the shadow of economic strain and military overreach, and it raises the slogan of “America First” while shifting the burden to partners and allies. The document was presented as a thoughtful adjustment of American priorities and speaks the language of restraint, fairness, and realism. However, underneath a confident tone, Washington is attempting to preserve primacy by redistributing the costs and risks of global order onto its allies, especially in Asia and Europe.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf">strategy</a> emerged from a moment of truth. Years of military overstretch, industrial erosion, and fiscal strain have collided with domestic anxieties over migration, trade imbalances, and energy security. The document acknowledges, indirectly, that the United States can no longer afford to be everywhere, doing everything, for everyone. In response, it narrows the definition of what truly matters for the United States––the Western Hemisphere.</p>
<p>The Western Hemisphere is elevated as the primary theater of concern by invoking a 200-year-old policy of the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/monroe-doctrine">Monroe Doctrine</a> that rejects external influence close to home. The Middle East is quietly downgraded, its strategic relevance diminished by American <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2617439">energy independence</a>. Europe, which was once a central theater to Washington’s worldview, is urged to take primary responsibility for its own security and political future by restoring stability within the region.</p>
<p>The strategy is not one of isolationism, as the NSS is careful to reject that label. As per the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf">document</a>, the United States will continue to prevent adversaries from dominating key regions. Nowhere is this commitment clearer than in the Indo-Pacific, where China is described as a main competitor. But while the ends remain familiar, the means have changed. The burden of maintaining or reinforcing regional balance is no longer something Washington is willing, or claims it should ever have been expected, to carry alone.</p>
<p>The Indo-Pacific strategy outlined in the NSS revolves around the First Island Chain, the arc of territory stretching from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines. This geography is cast as the front line of any future conflict in East Asia. The United States pledges to build a force capable of denying aggression anywhere along this chain; however, it also emphasizes that such denial must be collective. Diplomacy will be used to press allies to increase defense spending and investment in deterrence-focused capabilities. In effect, the strategy seeks to integrate partnered militaries into a dense denial network in which primary responsibility lies with regional partners, with the U.S. aiding through commercial matters, technology sharing, and defense procurement.</p>
<p>There is a cold logic to this approach. If successful, it would complicate any Chinese military campaign, raising costs through layered defenses, maritime surveillance, anti-ship missiles, cyber capabilities, and hardened infrastructure. It would allow the United States to concentrate on high-end enablers such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and missile defense, while others invest in the less glamorous but more geographically exposed components of deterrence. This move can be seen as a reconfiguration designed to make competition with China cheaper and more sustainable for Washington.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, for America’s partners, the strategy feels less like empowerment and more like exposure. Japan offers the clearest example. Tokyo is amid a historic military buildup. Its defense budget now exceeds <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/26/japan-govt-greenlights-record-58bn-defence-budget-amid-regional-tension">9 trillion yen</a> and is on track to reach 2 percent of its GDP, a threshold once unthinkable in a country shaped by postwar pacifism. Japan is acquiring <a href="https://ipdefenseforum.com/2025/12/japan-to-deploy-domestically-developed-long-range-missiles-at-four-sites/">long-range</a> standoff missiles, expanding <a href="https://turdef.com/article/japan-announces-shield-coastal-defence-system-with-uxvs">coastal defenses</a>, and revising its <a href="https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/takaichi-manufacturing-crisis-and-rewriting-japans-security-future">security doctrines</a> to prepare for contingencies that explicitly include Taiwan. These steps reflect genuine threat perceptions, particularly as Chinese military activity intensifies near Japanese territory. But they also reveal how burden shifting works in practice, and Japan is expected to bear frontline risks in a conflict whose escalation dynamics it might not be able to fully control.</p>
<p>South Korea’s dilemma is even starker. Long praised as a model non-proliferation state, Seoul built its security on trust in the American nuclear umbrella. That trust is now fraying. North Korea’s arsenal has grown more sophisticated, and its missiles are more mobile and survivable. At the same time, the South Koreans are increasingly <a href="https://www.koreaherald.com/article/3319662">skeptical</a> that Washington would risk Los Angeles or New York to save Seoul, particularly amid U.S. political polarization and the personalization of foreign policy under President Donald Trump. The NSS urges partners to spend more and do more for collective defense, but it cannot dispel the fundamental fear that extended deterrence may fail at the moment of truth. The result is a <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/2025/11/25/south-koreas-nuclear-debate-is-no-longer-taboo/">once-taboo debate</a> over whether South Korea needs its own nuclear weapons, a debate that speaks volumes about how burden shifting erodes confidence even as it seeks to strengthen deterrence.</p>
<p>The Philippines illustrates another facet of this strategy. Cast as a frontline state in the South China Sea, Manila is offered expanded U.S. access under the <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-the-philippines">Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement</a>. The benefits are tangible; however, the risks are also profound. <a href="https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2493836/world">Philippine lawmakers</a> have openly questioned whether hosting U.S. forces makes the country a target without ensuring reciprocal American vulnerability. There is a lingering fear of becoming a buffer state, absorbing grey-zone pressure while great powers manage escalation elsewhere. These developments urged Manila to deepen ties with Washington, but simultaneously <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2025/10/web-of-deterrence-how-the-philippines-is-reframing-security-cooperation-in-the-indo-pacific/">diversify partnerships</a> with Japan, France, India, and regional neighbors to avoid being locked into a proxy role.</p>
<p>These anxieties are compounded by the broader signals the NSS sends about American leadership. The document features President Trump with unusual prominence, underscoring how closely U.S. strategy is now associated with a single, mercurial figure. Its harsh treatment of European allies will not go unnoticed in Asia, where confidence in U.S. commitments has always rested as much on perception as on capability. The strategy also stated that “the outsized influence of larger, richer, and stronger nations is a timeless truth of international relations.” This assertion is most striking because it indicates that international order rests on the rule of the major powers. This framing implicitly places major powers (Washington, Moscow, and Beijing) in an exclusive tier of decisive actors and reminds the middle powers that their agency has limits. For allies asked to shoulder greater burdens, such language offers little reassurance.</p>
<p>A familiar Asia strategy thus sits alongside a more disquieting and unsettled redefinition of global leadership. The United States still seeks to shape outcomes, deter adversaries, and preserve its primacy. But it increasingly does so by asking others to stand closer to the fire. Whether allies will continue to accept that role, without firmer guarantees and clearer commitments, may determine not only the future of the Indo-Pacific but the credibility of American power itself.</p>
<p><em>Sidra Shaukat is a Research Officer at the </em><a href="https://thesvi.org/"><em>Strategic Vision Institute</em></a><em> (SVI), a leading Pakistani think tank focused on nuclear and strategic affairs. Her research and commentary have addressed peaceful uses of nuclear technologies, Pakistan’s Nuclear Regulatory Authority, nuclear diplomacy, and broader geostrategic developments in South Asia, Europe, and the Middle East across various platforms. A full list of her publications is available on </em><a href="https://thesvi.org/category/analyses/"><em>SVI’s</em></a> <em>website. Views Expressed in this article are author’s own.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Americas-Managed-Retreat-How-the-2025-U.S.-National-Security-Strategy-Shifts-the-Burden-to-Allies.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-32091" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Download-Button.png" alt="" width="241" height="67" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Download-Button.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/2026-Download-Button-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 241px) 100vw, 241px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/americas-managed-retreat-how-the-2025-u-s-national-security-strategy-shifts-the-burden-to-allies/">America’s Managed Retreat: How the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy Shifts the Burden to Allies</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>What Does Xi Jinping’s Engagement in Conflicts Reveal to the World?</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/what-does-xi-jinpings-engagement-in-conflicts-reveal-to-the-world/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/what-does-xi-jinpings-engagement-in-conflicts-reveal-to-the-world/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dawood Tanin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Oct 2025 12:09:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=31666</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The world today is more unsettled and volatile than ever. The war in Ukraine has become Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. Tensions between Israel and Iran cast a heavy shadow over the Middle East. Taiwan issues spark new threats almost daily. The gap between Europe and the United States is becoming increasingly evident. [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/what-does-xi-jinpings-engagement-in-conflicts-reveal-to-the-world/">What Does Xi Jinping’s Engagement in Conflicts Reveal to the World?</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The world today is more unsettled and volatile than ever. The war in Ukraine has become Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. Tensions between Israel and Iran cast a heavy shadow over the Middle East. Taiwan issues spark new threats almost daily. The gap between Europe and the United States is becoming increasingly evident. Trade wars between East and West are turning into a fierce and decisive struggle.</p>
<p>In this complex environment, world leaders are facing sanctions, isolation, and strategic setbacks that send a clear message—the long peace may soon end. Whether China’s supreme leader, Xi Jinping, will play a positive or divisive role in the future is uncertain.</p>
<p>It is certain that China seeks to move from the role of “model student” to that of leader, all despite depending heavily on Western markets and technology. The United States and the European Union remain China’s largest trading partners and any disruption in these relationships could push its economy toward stagnation. How China’s ambitious transition addresses major paradoxes and limitations in three key areas deserves further discussion.</p>
<p><strong>The Alliance Paradox</strong><strong> </strong></p>
<p>At first glance, dissatisfied countries may appear a united front against the West, with China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and, to some extent, India in alignment. A closer look shows deep-rooted tensions. Russia inherited the legacy of empire and finds it difficult to accept a subordinate role to China. While Moscow relies on Beijing’s support in Ukraine, China’s growing economic and security influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus is seen as a direct threat.</p>
<p>India, another key player, sits with China in forums like BRICS, but remains a strategic rival. Border disputes in the Himalayas, competition for influence in the Indian Ocean, and strong ties with the United States and the West prevent any real constructive partnership between the two Asian powers.</p>
<p>Iran and North Korea also face serious internal and international constraints. Iran struggles with deep domestic cleavages, while North Korea remains unpredictable, at times even complicating China’s strategic plans. On a broader level, there is no shared set of values among these countries; their primary connection is opposition to the West.</p>
<p>As Henry Kissinger noted, such alliances often reflect disorder rather than creating a new order. This coalition is more capable of disrupting the existing system than building a replacement. None of its members, individually or collectively, possesses the institutions or tools required to reshape global order.</p>
<p>Xi Jinping’s presence alongside this coalition primarily serves as a symbolic display, signaling dissatisfaction, demonstrating power, and marking the end of a unipolar world. But this performance does not equate to practical ability to establish a new order. While China wields significant economic power, it lacks the instruments to replace the West in security and international politics; it has no NATO-like network, no universally trusted currency, and no capacity to reshape international legal institutions to its advantage.</p>
<p><strong>The Contradiction between Experience and Ambition</strong><strong> </strong></p>
<p>One of China’s main challenges is its lack of practical experience in major global tests. Since World War I, China has not been involved in any large-scale wars and has not faced a real-world military crisis. This gap highlights China’s inexperience in handling major international conflicts. Even considering Russia, with its weakened military and struggling economy, and Iran, facing deep domestic and regional crises, the pillars of this alliance do not appear particularly strong.</p>
<p>Ambition without experience, combined with an alliance lacking shared values, risks creating instability rather than a new order. This coalition sends an important message to the West, especially the United States: global dissatisfaction with American hegemony is real and even temporary alliances can exert significant pressure on energy markets, financial systems, and peace negotiations. China and its partners, despite their fundamental weaknesses, can disrupt Western calculations across many regions—a capability that should not be underestimated.</p>
<p>At the same time, China’s lack of hands-on experience in managing major military and economic crises leaves its foreign policy vulnerable to miscalculation. Ambition without real-world testing can thus be both an opportunity and a threat to regional and global stability. Moreover, global leadership is not possible by economic or military power alone; it also requires a compelling culture and a large consumer base capable of attracting goods, technology, and lifestyles from other countries. The United States built its hegemony precisely on these foundations. China possesses none of these.</p>
<p><strong>Message to the World and the West</strong></p>
<p>Xi Jinping’s alignment with countries opposing the existing global order sends a dual message to the world. First, it signals widespread dissatisfaction with the current system. This shows the world, particularly the West, that the liberal international order is no longer uncontested and that the hegemony of the United States faces a challenge. Second, it exposes the weaknesses and contradictions within the anti-Western coalition. The alliance lacks the intellectual, institutional, and operational foundations needed to create a new order. Internal divisions and the absence of security and political tools indicate that China and its partners, at least in the short term, cannot replace the existing global order.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, China’s stance against the liberal international order marks a new phase in global politics—one that may not produce a new order but could intensify instability and geopolitical complexity. Henry Kissinger even considered such disorder a threat greater than war. This situation shows that China is simultaneously trying to display power, secure advantages, and strengthen its global position, yet it still faces significant constraints and challenges on the path to genuine global leadership.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>China’s transition from the “model student” to “global leader” faces three key obstacles. First is the alliance paradox in which coalitions of dissatisfied countries reflect disorder more than they create new order. Second is the gap between experience and ambition in which ambition without major practical tests leaves China vulnerable and its foreign policy prone to miscalculations. Third is the alliance/coalition’s message to the world, where China loudly signals its dissatisfaction with the current order but has no attractive alternative to offer. In other words, China seeks a larger share of the global order, yet it lacks the capacity to host it.</p>
<p>Today, the world is entering a new phase—one that may not produce a new order but will likely heighten instability and geopolitical complexity. In this environment, conflict remains the most probable scenario.</p>
<p><em> Dawood Tanin is a researcher, freelance writer, and professor of political science at a private university in Afghanistan. Views expressed in this article are the author&#8217;s own. </em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Chinas-Transition-from-Model-Student-to-Global-Leader.pdf"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="209" height="58" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 209px) 100vw, 209px" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/what-does-xi-jinpings-engagement-in-conflicts-reveal-to-the-world/">What Does Xi Jinping’s Engagement in Conflicts Reveal to the World?</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>Time to Proliferate Nuclear Weapons (or Not?)</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/time-to-proliferate-nuclear-weapons-or-not/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Christine M. Leah&nbsp;&&nbsp;Peter Layton]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Apr 2025 12:11:59 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=30629</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Extended nuclear deterrence is a central tenet of America’s post–World War II strategy. For the first time however, it is being seriously questioned in both Europe and the Asia-Pacific. The international system is now firmly bipolar, with China’s global power rapidly increasing at a time when Russia regularly threatens to use nuclear weapons against the [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/time-to-proliferate-nuclear-weapons-or-not/">Time to Proliferate Nuclear Weapons (or Not?)</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Extended nuclear deterrence is a central tenet of America’s post–World War II strategy. For the first time however, it is being <a href="https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2025/02/24/ukraine_and_the_international_nuclear_order_1093381.html">seriously questioned</a> in <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250301-macron-reopens-debate-on-european-nuclear-umbrella-after-trump-zelensky-showdown">both Europe</a> and the <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/why-south-korea-might-go-nuclear-trump-s-term">Asia-Pacific</a>.</p>
<p>The international system is now <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/49/2/7/125214/Back-to-Bipolarity-How-China-s-Rise-Transformed">firmly bipolar</a>, with China’s global power rapidly increasing at a time when Russia <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9825/CBP-9825.pdf">regularly threatens</a> to use nuclear weapons against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), influencing the administration of President Donald Trump. The combined Chinese and Russian threats are leading President Trump <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/donald-trump-says-world-war-iii-not-far-away-7758523">to warn</a> of a possible World War III.</p>
<p>American power is increasingly contested, bringing <a href="https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/3679143/preventing-the-nuclear-jungle-extended-deterrence-assurance-and-nonproliferation/">new operational</a> challenges to extended deterrence. A fundamental question is now in play—should the US abandon the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) it created in 1960s and instead push its allies to field nuclear weapons?</p>
<p>Allies are already reconsidering their nuclear stance. In the Asia-Pacific, American ally Australia provides useful <a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/Australia-Bomb-C-Leah-ebook/dp/B00RZU46PS">historical insights</a>.</p>
<p>From the late 1940s to the early 1970s, Australia <a href="https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb253/doc16d.pdf">sought to acquire</a> nuclear weapons in response to an unstable international order where it felt threatened by China. In 1967, Secretary of US Defense Robert McNamara <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315536576-13/unusual-suspects-australia-choice-nonproliferation-treaty-christine-leah">said it would</a> be “entirely natural” and “an obvious thing to happen” for Australia to acquire nuclear weapons in response to China developing them. He also <a href="https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801456756/nuclear-statecraft/">expressed interest</a> in establishing a collective nuclear organization <a href="https://medium.com/war-is-boring/yes-australia-still-needs-nukes-29f06bb7bbe">for the Far East</a>, “starting with Australia and the Philippines.”</p>
<p>Indeed, Secretary of State Dean Rusk earlier <a href="https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v11/d50">suggested</a> a “US-supplied Far Eastern nuclear stockpile” open to Japan and India. In 1958, others proposed the US could base intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in Australia, in the event the US decided to keep tight control of nuclear weapons in its own hands and actively worked to push its allies to agree to the NPT treaty.</p>
<p>There were similar debates around friendly nuclear proliferation in Europe around the same time. Aiming to regain leadership in Europe, the US <a href="https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v13/d173">proposed</a> a multilateral nuclear force within NATO. While <a href="https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1965/april/nuclear-control-and-multilateral-force">there were doubts</a> over its military utility, the diplomatic discussions that started around sharing nuclear hardware and control did allow time to develop a European non-proliferation solution. In 1966, the NATO nuclear planning group <a href="https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/3/pdf/200305-50Years_NPG.pdf">was established</a>, allowing some European allies to be involved in how and under which circumstances American weapons might be used.</p>
<p>The structural changes in the international system that prompted these earlier ideas are happening again. It is time to start thinking seriously about the next steps to take. The nuclear history noted suggests three broad approaches.</p>
<p>First, allies might build their own nuclear forces. The logic is that in a high-intensity conflict between the US and a nuclear power, the adversary may target American allies with nuclear weapons. Such an escalation demonstrates an adversary’s willingness to coerce allies into ceasing support for the United States.</p>
<p>This is the worst-case scenario that extended deterrence was created to prevent. If allies seriously doubt American credibility, fielding independent nuclear forces is a solution.  Indeed, economically challenged Pakistan and North Korea took this path already. For America’s allies, acquiring nuclear forces may be a lower cost option than growing their conventional forces.</p>
<p>Second, allies might work together to devise a modern multilateral nuclear force as considered in 1960s Europe. In the Pacific, Australia considered working with Britain on nuclear weapons in the late 1940s and 1950s; <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/buying-wrong-submarine">some still</a> favor this effort. In that regard, Japan and Australia have recently acquired Tomahawk cruise missiles, which the US armed with nuclear warheads to deter Russia in the 1980s. Such weapons might be a starting point for an allied nuclear force in the eastern Pacific. As noted, the US considered deploying ICBMs in the Australian outback.</p>
<p>Third, another option, arguably better for American global leadership, is to address the allies’ deepening concerns over extended deterrence. This would involve the current administration actively reassuring allies that it still places importance on existing security treaties, increasing nuclear sharing and including more nations in nuclear planning, especially in the Pacific. Such steps would be at marginal cost to the US.</p>
<p>The most important might be <a href="https://armscontrolcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/NATO_NSNW_factsheet.pdf">nuclear sharing</a> as this appears a tangible example of commitment. Of course, nuclear sharing is actually a misnomer since the US shares in the employment of certain nuclear weapons. It retains full control of the weapons prior to an authorization to strike a target.</p>
<p>The US could increase nuclear sharing with Pacific allies, such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea, and broaden out to other NATO nations <a href="https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2023/polands-bid-to-participate-in-nato-nuclear-sharing/">like Poland</a> and the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/09/scandinavia-nato-military-war-russia-sweden-finland-arctic/">Scandinavian nations</a>, which appear to be Russia’s next target after Ukraine. These nations could then reciprocate in hosting US nuclear weapons as Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands do now.</p>
<p>This discussion hinges on American ambitions for global leadership. As the Trump administration pushes allies to bare a greater share of their own security while attempting to close a $2 trillion annual deficit, the US must necessarily cut costs everywhere. Thus, American allies must take a realistic look at what President Trump is seeking to accomplish with the federal budget and understand that they must step into the breach while the US sets its house in order.</p>
<p>Sometimes, a great power must admit that it may be in its interests to change direction and push its allies down a new, different path. In that case, the Trump administration might declare the NPT finished and instead encourage its allies to go nuclear.</p>
<p><em>Dr. Christine Leah is a Fellow at the US National Institute for Deterrence Studies and has worked on nuclear issues at Yale, MIT, and RAND and in London, Singapore, and Canberra. She is the author of </em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Consequences-American-Nuclear-Disarmament-Strategy/dp/3319507206/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.soZRWNXZQ48LBhWvFbxlcMfFVCv6hL39gpEWyUb-ygdmf3hVMUon4gHm0SlXcyqb43EpNafIMHXgrF8qlJoCuw.qBCa72XAIoWMnkZU9wnLYT6dFxRhuGO_oJ4KzRvIwyo&amp;qid=1740973856&amp;sr=1-1">The Consequences of American Nuclear Disarmament</a><em> and </em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Australia-Bomb-C-Leah/dp/1349502138/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.3xV2qqOd8g77TxJvfKJAC_lMqYBPBUuy0H-xK5EsL4zCK2DsjTwgu6PFtHYyhfRGlDFU2TMYyWmmFUi-2Gik83Bun-ETdhRM0aKzZwVuaVl0YaqNvyZYWHgXmgKoUvM2fp6QocHWVtCGOySgNuJflLKStT8Zasq15Q070CthQn1pprk7sL3Or740wfjpCCjtaVMZWFxO072930bbCWI-VIM89kVDk6tbSaiu_peMzIk.3ABDAYc6_c25KTZeYnVgfsPPAVmjcswYQs_waY_ThP8&amp;qid=1740973774&amp;sr=8-1">Australia and the Bomb</a><em>. Dr. Peter Layton is Visiting Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute and an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. He is author of </em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Grand-Strategy-Peter-Layton/dp/0648279308/ref=sr_1_8?crid=1WW9KKA93W2SU&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.YEuoeMAsZAd2-00jAxG3IxlbctxcXWcG022plMnQt8UIz8sauU5z8nUiOatiVw-N7u8fm1VMAnvmRAEVgW-_uXwG5RsF6kEjpquaeqrQiskeNRiR-a0LAeCnlz_GUVD1BdE0AJLm0cOZymLlx7FF_dIzdObvbF8ZZvhxvkXwldX4nzFt936SJlNKz20KwiTQWifRPl8tQMr5HmVlNjHp99htS_hdtk7rJZ3EZcqivq0.5mJpAB4Eps8bW_8IahvqI7-wDiwXFnXfLelEo0VHXd8&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=grand+strategy&amp;qid=1740973890&amp;s=books&amp;sprefix=grand+strategy%2Cstripbooks-intl-ship%2C300&amp;sr=1-8">Grand Strategy</a> <em>and coauthor of </em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Warfare-Robotics-Studies-Technology-Security/dp/168585981X/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1HSNO0WVMQLG9&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.pNHeUseuidE_nQyA6uOmBddsDoMJ8WtTwq8dYdlLhJi03WZa17jEf5Vg34ploPmj0eoYBhS1L9E8JotkDP6jEGzAqf2RvSpo-UwHGKQXu0Ob1oafMLEquTi353DE8bUcrZyhy36ELFW7a3tVqQGXShHXTfquUvlFUX_GD3Oh5u9QEVcDlLmYTFnjQyxmpaREPNScNZ0PmfTSw-kgKF4TYL3Fqli17HXPTjHpfWLrh7X9DXLVMHKXACzcJKigDbbNGOL5CQE4rslJl_2lLxNW6g1XDuR2b3E3Wz0D_ntfoYs.cdZSR6tq_f9-rUdSMKbar6RguglU4nPIJ-Sv3USTXUw&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=Warfare+in+the+Robotic+Age&amp;qid=1740973928&amp;s=digital-text&amp;sprefix=warfare+in+the+robotic+age%2Cdigital-text%2C270&amp;sr=1-1-catcorr">Warfare in the Robotic Age</a><em>.</em></p>
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<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/time-to-proliferate-nuclear-weapons-or-not/">Time to Proliferate Nuclear Weapons (or Not?)</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>Trump and Zelensky: Bad Manners or Strategic Disaster?</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/trump-and-zelensky-bad-manners-or-strategic-disaster/</link>
					<comments>https://globalsecurityreview.com/trump-and-zelensky-bad-manners-or-strategic-disaster/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Stephen Cimbala]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Mar 2025 11:45:22 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=30251</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>By any standard, the February 28 White House meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was a breathtaking fiasco. After back-and-forth discussions, the conversation degenerated into a donnybrook of apparent misunderstandings and snarky exchanges that left expert commentators and others gasping. Professional diplomats in the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/trump-and-zelensky-bad-manners-or-strategic-disaster/">Trump and Zelensky: Bad Manners or Strategic Disaster?</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By any standard, the February 28 White House meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was a breathtaking fiasco. After back-and-forth discussions, the conversation degenerated into a donnybrook of apparent misunderstandings and snarky exchanges that left expert commentators and others gasping.</p>
<p>Professional diplomats in the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies might have wondered if this was an unrehearsed skit from Saturday Night Live.  Only Alec Baldwin playing the role of Trump was missing. Allies do not talk to each other like in front of the media.</p>
<p>It was clear that Trump and Vice President JD Vance expected to have a pleasant conversation in front of the cameras, have a nice private lunch, and then publicly sign a mineral deal with President Zelensky. They did not expect the pushback and demands that came near the end of the conversation. As a famous French diplomat once said, with respect to another diplomatic blunder, it was “worse than a crime. It was a mistake.”</p>
<p>Zelensky ended up being unceremoniously escorted out of the White House without lunch or a deal. The agreement that would allow the United States to mine rare Earth minerals in Ukraine was that it would repay the United States for the more than $160 billion that American taxpayers have invested in Ukraine’s defense. Profits from American mining operations would also help rebuild Ukraine. American businesses operating in Ukraine would also offer de facto security guarantees to Ukraine. Absent such an agreement, it was feared that China may partner with Ukraine to mine these critical minerals.</p>
<p>While President Trump is likely genuine in his desire to see the killing end and Ukraine rebuilt, Ukraine is only a small part of a larger strategic game the United States is playing. The Trump administration believes that Europe is no longer the strategic pivot of international relations. Instead, the focal point of American diplomacy and military preparedness is the Far East, with a rising China as the main adversary standing in the way of American global leadership and international influence. Europe is a secondary theater of operations, and it is time Europeans bare the burden of their own defense.</p>
<p>This view is a tectonic shift in American focus, but understandable. China has ambitions that go well beyond military and political competition with the United States in China’s backyard.</p>
<p>China’s global strategy of multi-domain competition with the US includes all spheres of power and influence. Its tool kit includes explicit challenges to the United States in the development and deployment of nuclear weapons, the military use of space, artificial intelligence development, cyberwar, and economic influence.</p>
<p>China’s ambitious naval expansion may fall short of driving the US Navy from the high seas, but its combined arms approach to anti-access and area denial (A2AD) in East Asia is intended to deter and, if necessary, defeat any power that would oppose China’s mastery of its immediate sphere of influence, including Taiwan.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, recognition of the threat posed by a rising China does not invalidate the strategic significance of events in Europe. America’s commitment to the defense and security of a free Europe is not transactional, it is existential. This is embodied in the NATO alliance.</p>
<p>NATO is the result of symbiotic relationships among democratic states that provide collective security within a context of political freedom. Ironically, this is why JD Vance’s challenge to European allies at the Munich Security Conference was so interesting. Vance noted that the United States and Europe are linked, not only by procedures and financial commitments, but also by shared values, including free speech. He rightly urged the European members of NATO and the European Union to enhance their commitments to free speech that, in his view, are in decline across Europe.</p>
<p>Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine, with its objective of destroying Ukraine’s armed forces, economy, infrastructure and its viability as a state is clearly grossly immoral. But evil in the world is nothing new, nor is it incumbent on the American taxpayer to fund every effort to eradicate all evil in the world. American efforts to impose liberal democracies where they do not exist has a poor track record of success.</p>
<p>Europe was the cradle of American civilization, but Americans fled Europe because of religious persecution, a lack of economic opportunity, and other reasons that are inconsistent with freedom. Doubtless, Zelensky and other European politicians drive their American partners crazy at times. During the Second World War, Charles de Gaulle drove British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Supreme Allied Commander General Dwight Eisenhower to distraction.  But the imperious de Gaulle was the symbol of French nationalism for those who opposed Germany and the Vichy regime.</p>
<p>An American abandonment of a free Europe would leave Europe to repeat its past mistakes, which the continent has repeated over and over and over again. Zelensky is far from an ideal partner. However, a Ukraine swallowed by Russia will result in a less stable Europe.</p>
<p>Vladimir Putin clearly sees a free Ukraine as a political and economic threat to Russia.  He denies that Ukraine is a distinct civilization or country. He constantly refers to Ukrainians as neo-Nazis. A negotiated settlement will not change this perspective. Any agreement with Putin must follow President Ronald Reagan’s dictum, trust but verify.</p>
<p>Ironically, one outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine is the enlargement of NATO with the addition of Finland and Sweden. Thus, NATO added considerable strategic depth and an ability to prevent Russian ships from leaving port in the Baltic Sea. Without the United States, European NATO may waiver. In the end, President Trump’s efforts to push European states to play a larger role in their own security are important, but they should never lead to an American departure from the Alliance.</p>
<p><em>Stephen Cimbala, PhD, is a Professor at Penn State University at Brandywine and a Senior Fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/zelensky.pdf"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-29852" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png" alt="" width="324" height="90" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1.png 450w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-Download-Button-1-300x83.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 324px) 100vw, 324px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/trump-and-zelensky-bad-manners-or-strategic-disaster/">Trump and Zelensky: Bad Manners or Strategic Disaster?</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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		<title>The Resilient Hegemon: Why America’s Global Leadership Endures</title>
		<link>https://globalsecurityreview.com/the-resilient-hegemon-why-americas-global-leadership-endures/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Aaron Holland]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Nov 2024 14:51:41 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://globalsecurityreview.com/?p=29326</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>In an era where political pundits are quick to sound alarms about the impending decline of American global leadership, the reality paints a more optimistic picture. While the rise of China, the resurgence of Russia, and the saber-rattling of North Korea and Iran led some to predict a seismic shift in world power, a closer [&#8230;]</p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/the-resilient-hegemon-why-americas-global-leadership-endures/">The Resilient Hegemon: Why America’s Global Leadership Endures</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In an era where political pundits are quick to sound alarms about the impending decline of American global leadership, the reality paints a more optimistic picture. While the <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/how-a-rising-china-has-remade-global-politics/">rise of China</a>, the <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2020/09/reckoning-with-a-resurgent-russia?lang=en">resurgence of Russia</a>, and the saber-rattling of <a href="https://www.hudson.org/arms-control-nonproliferation/north-koreas-dangerous-saber-rattling">North Korea</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/iran-s-nuclear-saber-rattling-raises-more-alarm-at-un-watchdog">Iran</a> led some to predict a <a href="https://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/the-world-orders-biggest-seismic-shift-in-a-century">seismic shift in world power</a>, a closer examination reveals that the United States remains firmly entrenched as the world’s leading hegemon, with little reason to believe that will change anytime soon.</p>
<p><strong>A Network of Powerful Allies</strong></p>
<p>One of the strongest indicators of America’s continued leadership is its robust network of alliances. <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/02/mapped-americas-collective-defense-agreements/135114/">Over 50 nations are directly allied with the US</a>, forming a global coalition that includes some of the world’s most powerful economies. Countries like <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-japan-alliance">Japan</a>, the <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-and-united-kingdom-a-historic-friendship-and-enduring-alliance/">United Kingdom</a>, <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-and-france-allies-partners-and-friends/">France</a>, and <a href="https://au.usembassy.gov/u-s-australia-relations/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%2DAustralia%20alliance%20is,in%20the%20South%20China%20Sea.">Australia</a> consistently align themselves with American leadership, not just in military terms but also economically and diplomatically. Even in regions like the Middle East, traditional allies such as <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-saudi-arabia/">Saudi Arabia</a> and <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/07/16/fact-sheet-the-united-states-strengthens-cooperation-with-middle-east-partners-to-address-21st-century-challenges/">emerging partnerships</a> are fortifying the US’s global standing.</p>
<p>Contrast this with <a href="https://cftni.org/publications/cranks-may-2024/">the coalition of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran</a>. While this quartet may represent a serious challenge, it pales in comparison to the extensive alliances that the US leads. Most crucially, while <a href="https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/together-and-apart-conundrum-china-russia-partnership">Russia and China</a> may appear aligned in the short term, they are not close allies in any deep or historical sense. The two powers have a long and fraught history, marked by strategic rivalry and suspicion. Their partnership today is one of convenience rather than genuine alignment. In the end, history tells us that such partnerships are prone to fracture, especially when national interests clash.</p>
<p>The reality of America’s network of allies compared to the alliance of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran is stark. This balancing coalition does not even come close to the strength of the band wagoning coalition the US possesses. For instance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (<a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm">NATO</a>), with its 31 member states, represents not only the most powerful military alliance in history but also an economic powerhouse, accounting for over <a href="https://www.worldeconomics.com/Regions/NATO/#:~:text=Data%20is%20combined%20for%20the,years%20(2013%2D2023).">30 percent of global gross domestic product</a> (GDP).</p>
<p>In contrast, China and Russia are economic competitors more than collaborators, and their combined GDP does not come close to rivaling the economic output of the US and its allies. Furthermore, China’s partnerships with nations like Iran and North Korea are limited by geography, sanctions, and divergent interests. North Korea is a heavily sanctioned and isolated state with little economic or strategic leverage beyond its nuclear capabilities, while Iran is mired in regional conflicts that prevent it from playing a major global role.</p>
<p>In essence, while China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran may occasionally coordinate to challenge the West, their relationships lack the cohesion, shared values, and the long-term strategic alignment of the American-led alliance system. This coalition cannot hope to rival the strength, stability, and global reach of America’s network of alliances. For all the talk of a multipolar world, the US remains at the center of the most powerful and united coalition of nations in modern history, a fact that ensures its continued dominance on the global stage.</p>
<p><strong>The Strategic Advantage of Geography</strong></p>
<p>Another underappreciated advantage is geography. The United States enjoys a position of unmatched security, largely thanks to what scholars like <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393349276">John Mearsheimer</a> call the “stopping power of water.” Unlike any other global power, the United States benefits from being bordered by two vast oceans. These natural barriers serve as formidable buffers against potential adversaries, significantly reducing the likelihood of direct invasion or immediate military threats to the mainland.</p>
<p>This geographic advantage has profound implications for national security and global influence. Unlike Russia, which shares extensive borders with Europe and Central Asia, and China, which borders several regional rivals including India, Japan, and Vietnam, the US is largely insulated from the chaos of regional disputes.</p>
<p>Moreover, this geographic separation means that the US can maintain a relatively smaller standing army compared to continental powers—focusing instead on advanced naval and air forces capable of projecting power far from its shores. American military bases, fleets, and alliances stretch across the world, but the mainland remains safely beyond the reach of conventional military threats.</p>
<p>This position gives the US a level of strategic flexibility that few nations can match. That is not to say the US Navy does not have issues facing its future, especially with <a href="https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/september/shipyard-shortage-people-problem#:~:text=In%20looking%20to%20expand%20U.S.,labor%20failures%20of%20Cramp%20Shipbuilding.&amp;text=The%20ongoing%20debate%20over%20how,as%20a%20sensible%20way%20forward.">shipyards</a> and <a href="https://federalnewsnetwork.com/navy/2024/08/navys-journey-to-new-procurement-system-remains-in-peril/">defense procurement</a>. However, it is still considered the <a href="https://www.wdmmw.org/ranking.php">greatest Navy in the world</a> as of 2024.</p>
<p><strong>The Monroe Doctrine</strong></p>
<p>Part of what makes the US so unique is its role as the uncontested regional hegemon in the Western Hemisphere. <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/monroe-doctrine">The Monroe Doctrine</a> has long established the principle that no foreign power should interfere in the affairs of the Americas, solidifying U.S. dominance in its own region. No other nation on Earth holds this level of regional control.</p>
<p>This unrivaled regional hegemony allows the US to focus on maintaining global stability and leading from a position of strength. As long as the Western Hemisphere remains secure, the US can project power abroad with confidence, knowing that its backyard is free from external threats.</p>
<p><strong>The Interconnected Economies of the U.S. and China</strong></p>
<p>Finally, the specter of the so-called <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/">Thucydides Trap</a>—the idea that a rising power (China) will inevitably clash with an established one (the US)—is not as likely as it may seem. While it is true that <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3562442/dod-report-details-chinese-efforts-to-build-military-power/">China’s economic and military rise is a concern</a>, the interconnectedness of the two economies makes a full-blown conflict far less probable. The US and China are not just rivals; they are <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/14/china-us-pandemic-economy-tensions-trump-coronavirus-covid-new-cold-war-economics-the-great-decoupling/">deeply intertwined economically</a>. From trade to investment to the global supply chain, the economic fates of both nations are linked in ways that make large-scale conflict costly for either side.</p>
<p>This <a href="https://cupola.gettysburg.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1002&amp;context=gazette">economic entanglement</a> offers a powerful deterrent against conflict. Both nations have a vested interest in maintaining peace and stability, knowing that any war would be mutually destructive. This interdependence, in many ways, acts as a stabilizing force, reducing the likelihood that the US and China will fall into the trap of inevitable conflict. However, it is worth noting that much of the same was said about the European powers just before World War I.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion: A Future of Optimism, Not Decline</strong></p>
<p>Despite the challenges posed by emerging powers and the uncertainties of the global political landscape, the US remains in a position of unparalleled strength. Its vast network of powerful allies, its strategic geographic advantage, the stability of the Monroe Doctrine, and the economic interdependence with China all suggest that the US’s role as the world’s leading hegemon is secure for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>Rather than succumbing to the doom and gloom of some political pundits, it is time to recognize the many reasons for optimism. The US has the tools, alliances, and strategic advantages to maintain its leadership and continue shaping a peaceful, prosperous global order.</p>
<p><em>Aaron Holland is a PhD candidate at the University of Utah and an Analyst at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies. All views expressed here are the author’s own. </em></p>
<p><a href="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/The-Resilient-Hegemon-Why-Americas-Global-Leadership-Endures.pdf"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-28926 size-medium" src="http://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Download-This-Publication-300x83.png" alt="" width="300" height="83" srcset="https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Download-This-Publication-300x83.png 300w, https://globalsecurityreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Download-This-Publication.png 450w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com/the-resilient-hegemon-why-americas-global-leadership-endures/">The Resilient Hegemon: Why America’s Global Leadership Endures</a> was originally published on <a href="https://globalsecurityreview.com">Global Security Review</a>.</p>
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