• General Anthony Cotton: Emphasizes the importance of the Sentinel project and regrets the simultaneous tackling of multiple strategic modernization programs. ​
• Strategic Command: Highlights the vital role of the Nuclear Triad in national security. ​
• USAF Vice Chief of Staff General James Slife: Stresses the necessity of maintaining a nuclear arsenal. ​

Essay of the Week: Ukraine, Proliferation, & Deterrence ​

• Peter Huessy: Discusses the complexities of the US and NATO’s approach to Ukraine, the implications of a ceasefire, and the need for a robust deterrent against Russian aggression. ​
• Key Points:
  • Historical failures in responding to Russian aggression. ​
  • Current defense spending and military assistance to Ukraine.
  • The importance of a strategic security arrangement involving NATO and Ukraine. ​

Event of the Week ​

• Defense Conference: General Anthony Cotton calls for more B-21 bombers and underscores the urgency of nuclear modernization. ​

Administration Developments ​

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth: Plans to increase spending on space operations, highlighting the importance of the space domain in future warfare. ​

The AF Chiefs Corner ​

• Air Force Chief Gen. David Allvin: Sees an opportunity for additional funding for missile defense and nuclear modernization. ​

The Commanders Corner

• General Cotton: Advocates for increased production rates of B-21 bombers and more Long Range Stand-Off weapons due to evolving security threats. ​

Strategic Developments ​

• Taiwan: Defense budget to exceed 3% of GDP due to rising threats from China. ​
• NATO Air Command: Demonstrates interoperability and transatlantic unity through Bomber Task Force missions. ​

Top Essays of the Week ​

• Essay #1: Discusses the uncertainty surrounding US extended deterrence guarantees and the potential for nuclear proliferation among US allies. ​
• Essay #2: Emphasizes the importance of maintaining the US nuclear umbrella over its allies. ​

Congressional Budget Developments ​

• Defense Spending Tips: Recommendations for cuts and increases in various defense programs, including missile procurement and Air Force programs. ​

Economic Developments

• Stephen Moore: Highlights the shift towards a production-driven economy and its impact on inflation and economic growth. ​

Proliferation Concerns ​

• Colin Demarest: Discusses the global proliferation of nuclear weapons and the implications for international security. ​

Ukraine Corner ​

• Clifford May: Advocates for a realistic goal of achieving a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, leading to a frozen conflict. ​

Media Error of the Week ​

• Wall Street Journal: Criticized for suggesting negotiations with Houthis terrorists, which could lead to endless conflict.

ICBM EAR Report Week of March 17-23 was originally published on Global Security Review.

However, Chinese state-run media, the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS) Missile Defense Project, CNN, and the Federation of American Scientists all claim that the DF-41 may carry up to 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV). A MIRVed system aims to increase the missile’s counterforce capability and/or ensure penetration of American missile defense networks. Reportedly, the DF-41 has a payload of 2,500 kilograms—assuming 30 percent for the post boost vehicle and 70 percent for the warhead reentry vehicle (RV). This would provide 1,750 kilograms (kg) for warheads, or each of the 10 warheads could weigh up to 175 kg, which is feasible for a light RV.

The estimate of 1,500 warheads assumes that China will not add more DF-31AG, JL-3 SLBM, rail- or road-mobile DF-41 missiles, or additional silo-based DF-41 missiles beyond what is currently in the inventory. However, it is possible that the number could be much larger. If DF-41 ICBMs are deployed with an average of 5 warheads per missile—in the 360 new silos recently built—and there is a projected 25 percent increase in the assumed baseline of 400 other missiles, China could field an estimated 2,300 long-range strategic nuclear warheads.

This would be a significantly larger force than that of the United States. There is a concern that Chinese President Xi Jinping will use such a nuclear force to coerce or blackmail the US into capitulation during an attack on Taiwan. Given that 2035 is still over a decade away, the time is now to rectify this challenge.

Is America Underestimating the DF-41 Risk? was originally published on Global Security Review.