China’s notion of the “Middle Kingdom” is not just a historical concept; it is a guiding force shaping the nation’s foreign policy. Seen in initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and military expansion, it portrays China as the cultural, political, and economic epicenter of the world. This intentional effort to shape the global system involves territorial disputes, diplomatic pressures, and information warfare, projecting China’s influence far beyond its borders.

However, beneath the peaceful platitudes lies a shadow. Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, China’s human rights landscape has taken a dark turn. From the oppression of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang to the challenges faced by Tibetans and Hong Kongers, China’s stance on basic freedoms is increasingly disconcerting. Moreover, China’s influence extends globally, touching on economic coercion, cyberattacks, and support for authoritarian regimes, challenging international human rights institutions and norms.

China’s challenge to the US and the post-1945 international system manifests in various forms, presenting a multifaceted threat. The ambition to displace, rather than replace, the US raises concerns about potential conflicts and instability. At its core is an ideological clash—China’s authoritarian capitalism versus the liberal democratic order that is the cornerstone of the international system. The corridors of power in the West are replete with recommendations: fortify alliances, champion human rights, and competently engage with the rising power.

As the world stands on the brink of a new global order, there is a sense of urgency to understand Chinese aspirations and prevent them from turning into conflict with the United States. The intertwining of power and principles calls for careful navigation of uncharted waters. The profound impact on human rights and freedoms demands a collective response—a strategic dance between nations, not merely in policy but in the very fabric of conscience.

To delve deeper into the implications of China’s global power projection, it is crucial to explore the ripple effects across various spheres. Economically, China’s rise has reshaped the global economic landscape. Its Belt and Road Initiative, spanning continents, creates a web of economic dependencies, presenting both opportunities and challenges for those nations involved. While some benefit from infrastructure development and economic partnerships, others find themselves vulnerable to China’s economic leverage. Ultimately, the terms of receiving Chinese aid often leave the recipient turning over ownership of ports, airports, railways, and other key infrastructure to the Chinese.

In the realm of technology, China is a formidable player. With advanced capabilities in artificial intelligence, 5G technology, and quantum computing, the country is positioning itself as a leader in the fourth industrial revolution. This technological prowess not only impacts the global market but also raises concerns about surveillance, privacy, and the potential

weaponization of technology for authoritarian control—something the Chinese Communist Party is already doing at home.

Moreover, China’s increasing military capabilities and assertiveness in territorial disputes, particularly in the South China Sea, have geopolitical implications. The potential for conflicts or tensions in these areas pose a challenge to regional stability and global peace. The international community grapples with how to address and manage these challenges while avoiding the escalation of conflicts.

China’s global power projection also extends to the realm of soft power. Through cultural initiatives, media influence, and educational exchanges, China seeks to shape international narratives and perceptions. This cultural diplomacy aims to foster a positive image of China globally, further enhancing its influence and challenging the dominance of Western narratives.

In the economic and diplomatic arenas, China’s growing influence in international organizations and forums cannot be ignored. As the country becomes a key player in shaping global policies, there is a need for a recalibration of international governance structures to accommodate a multipolar world.

The implications of China’s global power projection are vast and multifaceted. From economic shifts to technological advancements, geopolitical tensions, and soft power strategies, China’s ascent reverberates across the globe. Navigating this complex landscape requires a nuanced understanding and proactive engagement from the international community to ensure a balance between cooperative partnerships and safeguard universal principles of human rights and freedom. The ongoing dialogue and strategic decisions made today will undoubtedly shape the course of international relations in the years to come.

Shane McNeil is an American intelligence professional with over 20 years of experience in the military, as a contractor, and as a government civilian.

The views expressed by the authors are their own.

China’s Rise: Unraveling Power and Principle was originally published on Global Security Review.

Mom and Dad were leased to the United States, as is true of all pandas. Back in 1984, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) began leasing its unique national treasure to zoos around the world for $1 million per panda per year, with any cubs born abroad belonging to China.

The National Zoo in Washington, DC, is not the only American zoo where Chinese pandas are disappearing. Atlanta, San Diego, and Memphis already have or will soon lose their pandas. By January 2024, the United States will be panda-free for the first time in over 50 years. Americans are witnessing the end of five decades of Sino-American “panda diplomacy” that initially began in 1972 when first lady Pat Nixon was gifted two pandas on her state visit to China as President Richard Nixon sought to open relations between the United States and the PRC.

When President Nixon and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger visited China in February 1972, the visit was met with a great deal of fanfare. However, China’s rise and clear desire to topple the American-led international order is leaving the two countries increasingly at odds and facing increased incompatibility among their national interests. China’s required return of pandas from American zoos is but one example of a relationship that is deeply fractured.

The Chinese cherish their pandas as a national symbol, which makes them a good gauge of the relationship between China and the United States. Thus, it should come as no surprise that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) used the perception that Yaya, a panda in the Memphis Zoo, was being neglected to generate public pressure within China to call for Yaya’s return to China, which happened in April 2023. This response took place after public polling of Americans supported the idea that China is the greatest threat to the United States. The PRC panda diplomacy response is a not-so-subtle effort to signal discontent.

However, the United States is not alone in facing the negative effects of panda diplomacy. China began repatriating pandas from G12 member-states in 2023 without renewing any agreements.

In addition to the United States, all giant pandas in Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom, and a few other democratic states were returned or will return to China by early 2024. As the overall panda population in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries drops, Russia’s panda population increased, all while the number of McDonald’s restaurants decreased.

Thomas Friedman posited the Golden Arches theory of democratic peace. Could there be a “Panda Index” that correlates to Beijing and Washington’s spheres of influence? This may be an apples and oranges comparison, or more literally a pandas and patties comparison, but it may be one more useful tool to gauge the ongoing distancing between the US and its allies and an emerging Sino-centric domain such as the Belt and Road Initiative forum.

Interests can certainly diverge over time, but the significance of this divergence between China and the United States has only recently become a major focus within the Beltway’s think tanks and federal agencies. Pandas are tangible symbols of the direction China’s friendship is moving, with countries given the honor of hosting these living Chinese national treasures clearly proving they are no threat to CCP interests.

2022 marked the 50th anniversary of formal relations between the United States and People’s Republic of China. That relationship is now at its lowest point over the past five decades and faces an uncertain future as the CCP ratchets up efforts to dislodge the United States from its position as global leader. What form that takes—economic, diplomatic, military, or all of the above plus more—is yet to be determined.

What appears certain is that the PRC is gathering autocratic regimes together in an effort to offer a clear alternative to Western-style democracy and capitalism. Whatever direction China may take, it is certainly wise to keep an eye on the pandas. They are a predicter of who China views as friend or foe.

Author: Alexis Littlefield, PhD, spent two decades in Taiwan and China before returning to the United States as a COVID-19 refugee. He currently lives in Washington, DC, and taught at the University of Nottingham’s School of International Studies in Ningbo, China.

The Value of Panda Diplomacy was originally published on Global Security Review.