While the uprisings of the 2011 Arab Spring brought about renewed optimism in the MENA (the Middle East and North Africa) region, it ended in catastrophic failure. Over 180,000 individuals were killed, and over six million were displaced—a solemn reminder to demonstrators and activists today. While the defiance of demonstrators is laudable, lives were lost as the death toll increased to seemingly little avail as negotiations between the military government and opposition in Sudan seemed destined for failure, until talks brokered by the African Union yielded a breakthrough agreement.

The United States dispatched an envoy to facilitate ongoing talks in Sudan, and the African Union suspended the country’s membership. While the situation in Sudan appears to have stabilized to a degree, the unrest in Sudan and Algeria has spread to other North African states, in a reverberating echo of the 2011 Tahrir Square demonstrations in Cairo, Egypt. As economic discontent spreads throughout the Middle East, political unrest is growing. 

In Morocco, a BBC survey has revealed that more than half of respondents in the country seek immediate political change. Whether mass protests will erupt in Morocco is unknown; however, grievances are palpable, signaling a possible rerun of the unrest experienced in the Arab Spring protests. Eight years after the failure of the mass protests of 2011 to affect meaningful reform, lessons must be learned to avoid similar outcomes—or worse.

With the removal of the Mubarak dictatorship, came the election of Egypt’s first democratically-elected president, Mohamed Morsi. Just as Morsi’s election symbolized the dawn of a new era for many, his demise by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s military coup and recent unexpected death was emblematic of democracy’s often brutal fate in the Middle East and North Africa—a statement which does not imply support for the Muslim Brotherhood or deflect from the short-lived hopes for a chaotic presidency, but rather highlights its reverse effect: the emboldening of military dictatorships. Except for Tunisia, many states in the region have seen the implementation of greater autocratic control or have spiraled into anarchy since the Arab Spring. 

The convoluted role of the United States in the Arab Spring, whereby President Obama sanctioned regime change in Libya while supporting the military-backed coup in Egypt, arises from the contention between abiding by America’s foreign policy and national security interests and aligning with local democratic movements. 

One conspicuous feature of the United States’ approach to recent unrest is resounding silence. This could reflect the Trump’s antipathy to foreign intervention or precautionary measures after the inefficacy of U.S. involvement in 2011. Nonetheless, the protests in Sudan and Algeria are organic movements of ordinary citizens, many of whom are young people—the nemesis of autocratic dictatorships. The large-scale involvement of youths was illustrated in the successful attempt to block 82-year-old Algerian President Bouteflika from running for a fifth term. 

Almost seventy percent of Algeria’s population is under the age of 30, resembling the demographic profile of the Arab Spring protests, aided by social media and propelled by economic hardships seeking to topple military-backed regimes. These similarities present similar obstacles with a decentralized opposition being unsustainable in the long-term. Meanwhile, the presence of social media as a weapon for democracy remains a concern for Arab governments, evidenced by the internet blackout in Sudan, which only served to further fuel public grievances. 

A case study of Egypt reveals that deposing the front-facing leadership is merely a smokescreen to the power structure that remains—mainly bureaucrats, members of the security and military establishments, and oligarchs loyal to the old regime. While delaying elections in Algeria favors protestors in buying time to prevent Army Chief Gaid Salah’s preferred candidate taking office—a remnant of Bouteflika’s regime—the action highlights how a lack of organization amongst the opposition impedes progress. The militaries in both Sudan and Algeria are the repositories of power. Salah’s description of protestors who opposed the army as being “enemies of Algeria,” reinforces the brevity of hope instilled by the protests, before being silenced by the military. 

Revolutions enthuse the masses with optimism, however, the experiences of the 2011 protests reveal an illusory and temporal effect in the face of a powerful military and security establishment. The Sudanese and Algerian cases highlight growing dissent in the Middle East and North Africa. Without an organized opposition with overwhelming international support, political unrest in the MENA region is likely to bear an uncanny resemblance to the events of the first Arab Spring, potentially resulting in anarchy, civil war, or the imposition of stronger autocratic rule.

The Return of the Arab Spring was originally published on Global Security Review.

The CAR’s population is primarily split between into two regions: most of the country’s minority Muslim population inhabits the Sahel, while the majority Christian community is located mainly in the savanna. The present conflict between both groups erupted in 2012 and continues today. The conflict was ignited when Muslim rebels of the Seleka group seized power from the Christians. In response, Christians formed the anti-Balaka faction. Since 2012, government forces have become involved, leading to a number of severe humanitarian crises that threaten to destabilize the country further.

Nearing the Tipping Point

In 2013, then-Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-Moon stated that the Central African Republic had experienced a “total breakdown of law and order” that threatened both its security and stability and that of its neighbors. While government forces remain in control of the capital of Bangui, armed groups have taken over 70 percent of the country, subjecting civilians to regular attacks. The nature of the conflict has heightened ethnic tensions, as hundreds of localized groups beyond the Seleka and anti-Balaka factions taking control of territory throughout the CAR.

Fighting between the two rival groups and government forces has made life difficult for civilians, who are increasingly fearful of leaving their homes or allowing their children to attend school. The conflict in the CAR is at a tipping point and threatens to push the country into a state of famine. Peacekeeping and mediation efforts have stagnated, making it essential to promote an alternative approach to providing conflict resolution and humanitarian assistance in the CAR. Intervening organizations must engage at the community level to stem the flow of fighters entering the conflict.

Conflict at the Community Level

The violence in the Central African Republic has affected communities large and small. Towns and villages have been destroyed as young men are increasingly attracted by the possibility of income from joining a militia. Political disruption, violence, and a weak economy have perpetuated a lack of adequate medical services, hindered internal migration, and prevented communities from modernizing necessary infrastructure. Disease is nothing new to the CAR, but the conflict has exacerbated the inaccessibility of healthcare leading to increased mortality rates.

As violence spreads, higher numbers of CAR citizens have been forced to flee to refugee camps. As of 2018, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency estimated that almost 550,000 individuals had been internally displaced. The conditions in these refugee camps are less than adequate. In regular communities, access to medical facilities is limited, and transit to and from first aid areas is minimal. However, individuals in refugee camps are faced with “little or no humanitarian assistance,” and are often left to fend for themselves.

The Evolution of Humanitarian Issues in CAR

As of 2018, half of the CAR’s population requires humanitarian aid, more than two million people. The CAR is mostly comprised of rural communities that lack access to medical facilities or basic first aid, the capital of Bangui, for example, has just one major hospital. According to the CIA, many suffer from treatable diseases, such as malaria or malnutrition, due to a weak healthcare system exacerbated by violent conflict. With a poor transit system destroyed by a conflict that makes it difficult for rural residents to travel for medical care, mortality rates remain high. Even if they can make it to a medical facility, those who suffer life-altering injuries resulting from the conflict are often unable to afford medical services and pharmaceuticals.

The ongoing conflict has weakened the country’s economy, leaving 75 percent of the population impoverished. Attacks at a local level have increased, which have primarily come in the form of violent attacks on refugee sites and on educational and healthcare facilities. Growing numbers of internally displaced peoples has made it challenging to provide clean water at refugee camps, and obstacles to trade and farming have inflated the prices of food and other essentials.

Humanitarian aid groups face difficulties in their attempts to assist the affected population. Threatened with violence and robberies, the movement of humanitarian groups within the CAR has been limited. As of September 2018, seven of these groups have withdrawn their services from the nation.

A Solution Starts at the Local Level

To decrease the attractiveness of joining armed groups, there is a need for solutions at the community level to improve economic and living conditions. As shown by the largely ineffective peacekeeping missions in the region, external mediation with the government and militias has been difficult.

A focused and localized approach within the CAR’s communities could have a more lasting effect, providing other outlets for civilians while stemming the flow of new militia recruits. As such, there are five recommendations to engender an improved situation in the country:

1. Expand local peace agreements and non-aggression pacts

Recently, a number of peace agreements and non-aggression pacts at a local level have had a stronger effect on reducing violent conflict within rural communities. These peace deals bring prominent community actors and organizations together, including women’s organizations, religious leaders, and local government authorities, to mediate peace offers between rival groups.

2. Address the conflict’s religious and ethnic characteristics at the source

To prevent the conflict from strengthening at the national level, it is critical to address the issues at the core of the conflict at the local level. That means promoting tolerance in communities and helping local religious leaders and other respected leaders to influence their communities to pursue reconciliation. Since the conflict in CAR is of a religious nature, it is imperative to intervene with education for youth so as not to perpetuate divisions between ethnic and religious groups.

3. Provide alternative employment to young men

Young men in the CAR are the most likely to impede future peace agreements between rival groups. Thus, it necessary to provide alternative outlets for these individuals to prevent them from perpetuating the conflict at the national level. To keep them from joining armed groups, local groups and international mediators will need to create and provide new forms of employment in numerous communities. This is already happening in a number of CAR’s communities, but it is essential to expand these practices across the nation.

Currently, many work projects “involve restoring public goods, including schools, clinics, bridges, roads, as well as churches as mosques,” according to a piece published by Foreign Policy. The benefit of this is not only to make potential militia fighters unavailable while rebuilding the country’s infrastructure but to provide tangible skills and training in community roles that can develop into careers and boost both local and national economies. With the potential for a job, young men are provided with other income options that make joining militias less attractive.

4. Invest in technology and medical facilities in rural areas

Technology will bridge the equality gap between the people of cities and rural communities and will distribute vital information to rural dwellers who have little access to resources on politics and economics.

Rural communities desperately need access to medical facilities, especially with the spread of disease in areas hospitable to insects like tsetse flies and mosquitoes. This requires the creation of new medical facilities and improved transportation and communications infrastructure.

5. Crackdown on the sale of weapons

National and local governments must impose stricter regulations on the transfer of military-grade weaponry throughout the CAR. These weapons often end up in the hands of local rebels, who incite violence in communities, further exacerbating the conflict. To limit these sales, it is essential to shut down the black markets that distribute weapons to rebels.

Looking to the Future

The situation in CAR will take time to resolve. Promoting tolerance at the local level while helping respected leaders to arrange reconciliation, promoting understanding, and helping respected leaders facilitate dialogue between rival groups. While international assistance is necessary, successful mediation will require a broader effort from community actors and CAR citizens to resolve this conflict at the grassroots level.

Local Approach Needed in Central African Republic as Humanitarian Crisis Looms was originally published on Global Security Review.

The battle for influence in Africa is one of the greatest power-plays left to upset the traditional balance of power in the international community. Africa’s relatively young labor force, untapped business opportunities, thirst for technological injection, strategic location and role as a resource bridge between east and west is attractive to many.

But China’s dedication to penetrating Africa and winning influence is second to none, intricately weaving its intentions across all of its trade and foreign policies.

Critical infrastructure has been at the heart of foreign aid and development policies of Africa’s largest investors (the U.S., E.U., and China). But while the U.S. attempts to navigate a new “America First” policy under President Trump and the EU continues to negotiate the terms of Brexit and its own growing right-wing movements, China has been focused.

Following on his systematic “one belt, one road” campaign, President Xi Jinping has worked at embedding China at the heart of African infrastructure to protect and cement its regional interests for decades to come.

On track with its Belt & Road Initiative

President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an incredibly ambitious strategy to broaden Chinese access to international and domestic markets by securing and leveraging land and maritime trade routes, resulting in new patterns of trade, capital flow, resource access and business expansion.

It has the potential to facilitate regional collaboration on the most extensive global scale ever seen, reaching as much as a third of the world’s GDP, 65 percent of the world’s population and tapping into a quarter of the movement of goods and services globally.

Africa serves as a linchpin for the BRI, but many of the continent’s countries lack the requisite infrastructure to accommodate such a vision. Making inroads in Africa will require reliable power systems, roads and transport systems, broadband coverage, and compliant bureaucracies – and that is precisely what China is targeting.

Aggressive investment in critical infrastructure and the industries supporting these functions has been China’s number one mode of entry. In fact, China has established itself as one of the largest investors in critical infrastructure in nations across Africa.

Investment Means Influence

Through the Forum on Chinese-African Cooperation (FOCAC), China committed $60 billion in funding in 2015 alone, tripling its 2012 commitment of $20 billion.

Recent reports estimate Chinese banks, contractors and the government combined have extended $94.4 billion between 2000 and 2015. Success in the development of pilot programmes engaging local infrastructure industry in development and skills exchange, including construction of large industrial parks, has proved profitable for all parties.

Critical infrastructure such as water, power, broadband, transport, and logistics through these programmes means that Africa can provide the foundation for China’s BRI vision, but also remains indebted and dependent on China to maintain and pay for these new structures. Consequently, the facilitation of such developments ensures Chinese influence and political favor from partner countries.

Large-scale programs and investments support Xi’s goals to ensure the reach of China is felt everywhere not just a financially, but also a physically – and in particular wherever America may also have a presence. This sentiment was reflected by U.S. Marine Corps Commander Gen. Robert Neller speaking before a U.S. House Appropriations Committee meeting in March, “The Chinese are playing the long game … Everywhere I go, they’re there.”

Neller outlined the current Chinese strategy as to “win without fighting,” leveraging soft power capabilities and infiltrating national infrastructures to support their foreign policy ambitions.

China has pursued this strategy across the continent providing targeted investment and turnkey technological and logistical solutions, positioning themselves at the heart of these nations and leaving them vulnerable to both political and financial influence.

Additionally, these government efforts are being amplified by an increase in ordinary Chinese businesses heading to Africa, even without state-backing.

The Trappings of Dependence

While traditional foreign aid and investment have promised external funding or lower-interest loans in return for favorable trade relations and local commitments, China’s investments are tied with high-interest loans with impossible terms.

With billions of dollars already invested in the campaign, developing countries are becoming increasingly saddled with crippling debt and growing dependence on China.

In a March report, the Center for Global Development flagged eight countries at heightened risk of significant debt distress due to China’s One Belt One Road initiative.

Asia author and analyst Gordon Chang highlighted this “new form of colonialism” at a March House Committee on Foreign Affairs hearing on China’s role in Africa, testifying that once such dependence develops, “Beijing gets their support for geopolitical goals, and one of these goals is undermining democracy.”

Djibouti is one country which has been marked at heightened risk of debt distress, having received $14 billion in Chinese investment. This has won China critical local political support for Chinese interests and goodwill with the population. More importantly, local political support has led to the establishment of China’s first permanent overseas military base in Djibouti.

With unbound strategic importance, guarding the Suez Canal, the Red Sea and the oil-rich Persian Gulf, Djibouti also offers an excellent vantage point from where it may observe the U.S. military base, again reflecting Gen. Neller’s earlier sentiments. This isn’t the first sign of China ruffling security feathers on the continent. French news source Le Monde reported earlier in the year on alleged daily cyber breaches of the A.U. headquarters’ IT framework.

The infiltration was traced back to Shanghai, although it was vehemently denied by Chinese officials and minimized by representatives from the African Union. Further investigations were said to have revealed hidden microphones in desks and walls throughout the Chinese-built building in Ethiopia.

China’s drive to gain greater global influence is clear

China’s method of partnering with those excluded from the Western-led world order does not isolate African governments but continues to prove strategic in protecting and promoting its national interests. China’s lack of reservations in striking deals with authoritarian leaders or governments with poor human rights records remains its advantage over western nations.

As the strategic environment in Africa becomes more crowded and competitive, U.S. General Waldhauser warns that “We will never outspend the Chinese on the continent,” and instead must be smarter about policies and actions connected to the region.

This is true for any country looking to win influence or maintain good relations with the continent. Ultimately, China stands as the lone power with both the sufficient economic might and political unification to succeed in this new scramble for influence in Africa.

China Positions Itself at the Heart of African Infrastructure was originally published on Global Security Review.

The year 2017 was marked by conflict, instability, and humanitarian crises. But there were bright spots as well. Here are ten areas where progress has been reported around the world.

1. The World Health Organization reports in October that global measles deaths have decreased by more than 80 percent since 2000 to an estimated ninety thousand last year. The drop is part of a broader decline in child mortality, which has been more than halved since 1990.

2. Colombia’s largest Marxist rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), completes its disarmament process in June, six months after it reached a peace agreement with the government, bringing to a close Latin America’s oldest and bloodiest civil conflict. The second-largest rebel group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), agrees to a temporary cease-fire in September.

3. The hole in the earth’s ozone layer is the smallest it has been since 1988, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports in October. Warmer weather conditions over the last two years prevented ozone-depleting chemicals from eating away at the protective layer, scientists say. They also attribute the improvement to decades of global efforts to reduce emissions of such chemicals.

4. Women’s rights advance in several Arab countries with the passage of legal reforms: Tunisia criminalizes violence against women, Lebanon and Jordan repeal laws that had permitted rapists to escape punishment if they wed their victims, and Jordan amends its penal code to do away with reduced penalties for so-called honor killings.

5. Eight countries adopted legal protections against discrimination based on sexual orientation, bringing the total to eighty-five, according to the International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association.

6. The number of people living in extreme poverty, making $1.90 or less per day, continues its steady drop, falling from roughly 35 percent of the world’s population in 1990 to 8.4 percent in late 2017, according to the Vienna-based World Data Lab.

7. Gambia’s longtime authoritarian president, Yahya Jammeh, steps down on January 20, 2017, weeks after losing his reelection bid to Adama Barrow and a day after troops from the regional bloc ECOWAS cross into the country. Barrow’s government releases hundreds of political prisoners, holds legislative elections deemed free and fair, and announces plans for a truth and reconciliation commission.

8. Maritime piracy declines in the first nine months of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016, dropping 14 percent to 121 incidents, according to the International Chamber of Commerce. The organization attributes the improvement to more stringent naval patrols in some areas such as Indonesia. This follows a 25 percent decrease a year earlier.

9. After resolving Argentina’s billion-dollar dispute with bondholders in 2016, President Mauricio Macri continues promarket reforms that have lifted the Group of Twenty economy. October 2017 midterm elections reinforce Macri’s reform mandate, and the International Monetary Fund hails Argentina’s “systemic transformation of its economy” and progress in “restoring integrity” to the government.

10. The eurozone economy grows 2.5 percent more in the third quarter of 2017 than in the same period a year prior. The increase puts the zone’s economy on track to see its highest annual growth since before the 2008 global financial crisis. Unemployment in the single-currency area drops to 9.1 percent, its lowest level since early 2009.

10 Geopolitical Silver Linings in 2017 was originally published on Global Security Review.

The ouster of Robert Mugabe has dominated global coverage of Africa over the past few weeks. In Western coverage of the first week after the coup in Zimbabwe, there was speculation about what China knew beforehand and whether Beijing played an active role in pushing for it.

China’s mention drowned out other notable external stakeholders such as the U.K., the U.S., South Africa, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (A.U.). And it almost threatened to overshadow the domestic dynamics that led to the changeover.

There are reasons to draw a direct parallel between China and the recent events in Zimbabwe. The most obvious is the fact that army chief General Constantino Chiwenga visited Beijing shortly before the tanks rolled into Harare. The timing of the visit was certainly eye-catching. It led to speculation that Beijing was informed beforehand of the coming coup.

There were also rumors that other external stakeholders, notably South Africa, had been informed.

But some coverage underplayed the distinction between knowing the coup was afoot and actively pushing for it. In some reporting, China was all but accused of fomenting regime change. The reason put forward was that relations between the two countries had soured in recent years because of Beijing’s concerns about loan repayments. There was also the issue of Chinese investments in the face of a ramped up indigenization campaign by Harare.

A decline in the “special friendship” between Mugabe and China is well documented. It’s a relationship that goes back to the Mao era and also involves Emmerson Mnangagwa, now president, who received military training in China. But simply jumping from these facts to the implication that China actively pushed for, or orchestrated Mugabe’s fall, skips over a few important facts.

Three reasons to dismiss the conspiracy theorists

In the first place, China has strenuously denied any involvement in the change of government. This is worth noting, though it’s unlikely to convince those looking for a conspiracy.

More fundamentally, there is little evidence of China in the post-Mao era pushing for regime change in Africa. This includes countries where it has more extensive economic interests than in Zimbabwe, and where those are in considerably more danger than in Zimbabwe. South Sudan is one example.

For all Mugabe’s many crimes, Zimbabwe during his reign was relatively stable and predictable. No matter how frosty the relationship between Harare and Beijing had become, Zimbabwe seems like an unlikely candidate for such a significant departure in tactics. This is especially true after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, an event that pushed China even further away from support for interventionism.

Second, as the young, Hong Kong-based Zimbabwean academic Innocent Mutanga has argued, the Western fixation on a possible Chinese regime change plot has the effect of discounting African agency. This is doubly problematic because it also discounts the ability of African governing bodies like SADC to enforce the rules in their backyard.

In fact, the careful choreography that accompanied the ousting of Mugabe was aimed at appeasing the A.U. The aim was to avoid any invocation of the A.U.’s mandatory suspension of unconstitutional changes in government. This was a concern every bit as important for Mnangagwa’s faction as assuaging external powers’ interests.

The regime change argument misses a wider point: that Chiwenga’s visit can be read as a sign of China’s new prominence on the global stage. The fact that China was probably informed about the coup beforehand actually makes clear of its shifting geopolitical position. Being given prior warning shows that China is getting recognition alongside the US and UK as a fully fledged great power.

This perspective should lead us to focus in detail on Chinese investments in Zimbabwe – not because they might point towards direct Chinese involvement in Mugabe’s fall, but because they raise questions about how various Chinese actors interact with illiberal governments across the global south.

Since 2006 the relationship between China and Zimbabwe has been rooted in collusion between military and party elites on both sides. This led prominent Chinese companies into lucrative mining contracts in collaboration with companies owned by the Zimbabwean military. One such Chinese company is the arms manufacturer Norinco. President Mnangagwa and possible vice-president Chiwenga have been enriched via such joint deals.

In addition, large loan packages and prospective infrastructure investments have followed, broadening ties across sectors and society.

A wider lens is needed

A narrow focus on whether China actively pushed for Mugabe’s fall tends to assume that the China-Africa relationship is a unique and isolated phenomenon. We would argue that the Zimbabwe situation calls for a broader look at how various Chinese role players act globally.

Under President Xi Jinping, China has begun to push more explicitly for great power status, and for a leadership position in world politics. Events in Zimbabwe strongly suggest that it’s time that the world – and particularly Africa – started to reflect on this new role and focused on what kind of global power China will be.

Senior China-Africa Researcher Cobus van Staden of the South African Institute of International Affairs contributed to this report.

China’s Role in Ousting Mugabe During the Zimbabwe “Coup” was originally published on Global Security Review.