In “Fooled by randomness” and other works, NNT (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, known for his bestseller “Black Swan”) explores the notion of low probability, catastrophic impact events (see also “ergodic” vs “non-ergodic” events): using event-loss expectations, not just events probabilities, is crucial indeed.

The point on nonproliferation is totally relevant to current decades: on one hand, due to China and North Korea’s expanding nuclear postures, it sounds wise to consider nuclearisation for South-Korea and Japan. On the other hand, a nuclear Iran will likely trigger a response from at least one Arab Gulf country. In Europe, Germany and others also ponder their own nuclearisation beyond hosting US weapons. Indeed, the US should prepare to this eventuality that “as each new nuclear power joins the club, the number of sequences in which countries could start a nuclear conflict grows significantly.”